Rate the coming storm - Cat 1 to Cat 5

[The Vorlon]

Lets see if the collective wisdom has moved in 2 months on this one.....

[Franzl]

3...possibly 4 at this point...but we'll see.

[Kevin]

This is a pretty severe Cat 4 for the Democrats, however the way things are trending in these final days and as the night unfolds I could easily see it develop into a Category 5 sh**tstorm for the Dems

[J. J.]

CAT 3

Christ, Vorlon, a 70 seat loss for the Dems??!!

[cinyc]

CAT 4 bordering on CAT 5.  There are still incumbents who do not know that they are vulnerable yet.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

CAT 4 bordering on CAT 5.  There are still incumbents who do not know that they are vulnerable yet.

^^
agreed

[The Vorlon]

CAT 3

Christ, Vorlon, a 70 seat loss for the Dems??!!

I went through the House seat by seat, and there is a block of 24 seats by my count that are 50/50.  I allocated them 16/8 to the GOP and came up +69, yes...

I may revise again after we get all the weekend polls, but everything I hear is that it's breaking very badly for the Dems.

[Eraserhead]

Cat 3 (39-60). I think the Democrats will lose about 50.

[Joe Biden 2020]

High Cat 3

[Psychic Octopus]

I'm sticking with a bare or just short of Category 4, barely reaching or just falling short of 60 or so seats.

CAT 3

Christ, Vorlon, a 70 seat loss for the Dems??!!

I went through the House seat by seat, and there is a block of 24 seats by my count that are 50/50.  I allocated them 16/8 to the GHOP and came up +69, yes...

I may revise again after we get all the weekend polls, but everything I hear is that it's breaking very badly for the Dems.

Holy crap, damn, 70 seats?!?!?!? Well, we'll see what happens on Tuesday. With all the surging Republicans, I think that it is more likely that you are correct then the possibility of the Democrats keeping the House.

[Torie]

I am putting up the chart below to confuse everyone. Suffice it to say, if the GOP wins the House by 15% (57.5-42.5), which is reflected by the blue line, and every CD held by a Dem swings in a uniform manner from its PVI baseline (bearing in mind that a CD needs a PVI to GOP +2.5 to break even  (Bush +2.5%, Obama -7.5%, sum the two, and divide by two, for the PVI break even point), then the GOP wins 114 Dem seats (the red line). In other words, per this metric, if the Dems lose every seat they hold with a Dem PVI of +5 or less, they lose 114 seats. If the GOP just breaks even in the generic vote, the Dems lose about 50 seats if the Dem can't beat the the PVI baseline for the CD after deducting 2.5%, to get the CD down to even. So based on the PVI thing, as adjusted, if the GOP margin goes from -5% to 0%, and all CD's follow the PVI model, the GOP gets 50 seats. If there is no swing at all from the PVI, and the GOP loses the Generic vote by 5%, it still picks up about 42 Dem seats.

So, as a very crude cut, the Dems are holding a lot of seats they should not be holding based on 2004 and 2008 POTUS results, and thus a nationalized election, with the GOP in the lead, where incumbency is of marginal value, is one reason for the impending blowout. And sure some Dems will survive the PVI game, vis a vis the generic ballot swing, a substantial number of them. How many?  A lot fewer than we thought a month ago.

And yes, between 50 and 70 Dem seats, a lot are in play as compared to the PVI differential (i.e, the red line gets relatively steep between 50 and 70, and particularly 50 and 60), so as the GOP moves into positive territory (when the GOP hits a 5% generic ballot margin, it gets about 72 Dem seats), it hits a lot of Dem seats, against which the Dems have to play their incumbency card, etc.

And oh yes, you subtract GOP losses, be it 2 or 5 or whatever, from these totals.

[Beet]

Cat 3 or 4. Btw, the categories are amazing. A year ago, anything over 50 seats would have been considered a Cat 5.

[CatoMinor]

3 border lining 4

[Alcon]

I'm with the consensus -- Tonight I'm feeling about R+58 on my over/under.  However, if this ended up around R+70, I wouldn't be surprised.

I wish I had the balls to make off-the-wall predictions

[J. J.]

I'll take it up to 42-50, but I still don't see this 70+ seat gain.

Senate, about a 30% chance of a GOP take over, but I'm really expecting 49-49-2.

[Sbane]

I am putting up the chart below to confuse everyone. Suffice it to say, if the GOP wins the House by 15% (57.5-42.5), which is reflected by the blue line, and every CD held by a Dem swings in a uniform manner from its PVI baseline (bearing in mind that a CD needs a PVI to GOP +2.5 to break even  (Bush +2.5%, Obama -7.5%, sum the two, and divide by two, for the PVI break even point), then the GOP wins 114 Dem seats (the red line). In other words, per this metric, if the Dems lose every seat they hold with a Dem PVI of +5 or less, they lose 114 seats. If the GOP just breaks even in the generic vote, the Dems lose about 50 seats if the Dem can't beat the the PVI baseline for the CD after deducting 2.5%, to get the CD down to even. So based on the PVI thing, as adjusted, if the GOP margin goes from -5% to 0%, and all CD's follow the PVI model, the GOP gets 50 seats. If there is no swing at all from the PVI, and the GOP loses the Generic vote by 5%, it still picks up about 42 Dem seats.

So, as a very crude cut, the Dems are holding a lot of seats they should not be holding based on 2004 and 2008 POTUS results, and thus a nationalized election, with the GOP in the lead, where incumbency is of marginal value, is one reason for the impending blowout. And sure some Dems will survive the PVI game, vis a vis the generic ballot swing, a substantial number of them. How many?  A lot fewer than we thought a month ago.

And yes, between 50 and 70 Dem seats, a lot are in play as compared to the PVI differential (i.e, the red line gets relatively steep between 50 and 70, and particularly 50 and 60), so as the GOP moves into positive territory (when the GOP hits a 5% generic ballot margin, it gets about 72 Dem seats), it hits a lot of Dem seats, against which the Dems have to play their incumbency card, etc.

And oh yes, you subtract GOP losses, be it 2 or 5 or whatever, from these totals.

If I'm reading this correctly, you are saying the Republicans win 50 seats if they tie the generic ballot and if they win by a margin of 5 they win 70 seats?

[Torie]

I'm with the consensus -- Tonight I'm feeling about R+58 on my over/under.  However, if this ended up around R+70, I wouldn't be surprised.

I wish I had the balls to make off-the-wall predictions

To do that one would have to spend a lot of time at it, to figure out which seats not that closely watched or polled, are in real play to flip based on money, ad quality, candidate quality, along with all the more generic polls, and other races, etc. Other than that, you are just a Charlie Cook etc, drone, or just take a shot from the hip. That was what I did when I came up with 50-60 a couple of months back - I just shot from the hip. To now try to jerk it up another 10 seats is just too arduous for this old man, and after I did all that work (to generate something I could really defend), I might not come up with anymore seats anyway, and what fun would that be? 

It will be more fun to critique Sam and Vorlon, assuming they explain their calls of interest.

[Iosif]

Looks like a real sh**tkicking in the house. At least the Democrats will keep the senate.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I say we lose 57 seats, so Category 3.

[Psychic Octopus]

I'll take it up to 42-50, but I still don't see this 70+ seat gain.

Senate, about a 30% chance of a GOP take over, but I'm really expecting 49-49-2.

Are you lowballing the House so you can be even more happy come Tuesday, if indeed the GOP gets close to or breaks 60 seats? It seems like that is the case to me.

[Sbane]

I'll take it up to 42-50, but I still don't see this 70+ seat gain.

Senate, about a 30% chance of a GOP take over, but I'm really expecting 49-49-2.

Are you lowballing the House so you can be even more happy come Tuesday, if indeed the GOP gets close to or breaks 60 seats? It seems like that is the case to me.

He is just playing the expectations game. He seems to think that spinning results positively for the Republicans is necessary on the atlas forum. 

[Vepres]

High Cat 4 - Cat 5.

I would be surprised by anything less than 55.

[Torie]

High Cat 4 - Cat 5.

I would be surprised by anything less than 55.

If predicting 87 Dem seats will fall is not a category 5, what is? 100 seats? 

[Sam Spade]

I'm with the consensus -- Tonight I'm feeling about R+58 on my over/under.  However, if this ended up around R+70, I wouldn't be surprised.

I wish I had the balls to make off-the-wall predictions

To do that one would have to spend a lot of time at it, to figure out which seats not that closely watched or polled, are in real play to flip based on money, ad quality, candidate quality, along with all the more generic polls, and other races, etc. Other than that, you are just a Charlie Cook etc, drone, or just take a shot from the hip. That was what I did when I came up with 50-60 a couple of months back - I just shot from the hip. To now try to jerk it up another 10 seats is just too arduous for this old man, and after I did all that work (to generate something I could really defend), I might not come up with anymore seats anyway, and what fun would that be? 

It will be more fun to critique Sam and Vorlon, assuming they explain their calls of interest.

I explain every call, you know...

[Vepres]

High Cat 4 - Cat 5.

I would be surprised by anything less than 55.

If predicting 87 Dem seats will fall is not a category 5, what is? 100 seats? 

I acknowledge that there is a margin of error