JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[JohnnyLongtorso]

2008 thread here, to see how I did (decently).

This was originally posted on the 2010 Elections board, but that was a mistake, so I'm reposting it here. The Republican list is noticeably shorter; I'd be surprised if the Democrats manage to make ten Republican districts competitive in the end.

Asterisk denotes open seat.

Seats Held By Democrats

Likely Republican Takeover (12 seats)

AR-02* (Vic Snyder)
CO-04 (Betsy Markey)
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth)
KS-03* (Dennis Moore)
LA-03* (Charlie Melancon)
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus)
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil)
NY-29* (Eric Massa)
TN-06* (Bart Gordon)
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
VA-05 (Tom Perriello)

Lean Republican Takeover (16 seats)

AR-01* (Marion Berry)
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell)
FL-02 (Allen Boyd)
FL-08 (Alan Grayson)
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall)
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
MI-01* (Bart Stupak)
MS-01 (Travis Childers)
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy)
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
SC-05 (John Spratt)
TN-08* (John Tanner)
VA-02 (Glenn Nye)
WI-07* (Dave Obey)

Republican-Leaning Tossup (15 seats)

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
IL-17 (Phil Hare)
IN-09 (Baron Hill)
NV-03 (Dina Titus)
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter)
NH-02* (Paul Hodes)
NJ-03 (John Adler)
NM-02 (Harry Teague)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-07* (Joe Sestak)
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy)
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
WA-03* (Brian Baird)
WI-08 (Steve Kagen)

Pure Tossup (21 seats)

AL-02 (Bobby Bright)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
CO-03 (John Salazar)
FL-22 (Ron Klein)
IL-14 (Bill Foster)
MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
MO-04 (Ike Skelton)
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)
NY-19 (John Hall)
NY-20 (Scott Murphy)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri)
NC-02 (Bob Etherige)
NC-08 (Larry Kissell)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
PA-10 (Chris Carney)
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
VA-09 (Rick Boucher)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup (9 seats)

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords)
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop)
ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
MA-10* (Bill Delahunt)
MI-09 (Gary Peters)
MS-04 (Gene Taylor)
NY-01 (Tim Bishop)
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
WV-01* (Alan Mollohan)

Lean Democratic (14 seats)

CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-04 (Jim Himes)
CT-05 (Chris Murphy)
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly)
KY-06 (Ben Chandler)
MN-01 (Tim Walz)
MN-08 (Jim Oberstar)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NC-07 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-06 (Charlie Wilson)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
WA-02 (Rick Larsen)

Likely Democratic (14 seats)

AZ-07 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
IA-01 (Bruce Braley)
IA-02 (Dave Loebsack)
KY-03 (John Yarmuth)
ME-01 (Chellie Pingree)
MO-03 (Russ Carnahan)
NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OR-01 (David Wu)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire)
WI-03 (Ron Kind)
WV-03 (Nick Rahall)


Seats Held By Republicans

Lean Democratic Takeover (2 seats)

DE-AL* (Mike Castle)
LA-02 (Joseph Cao)

Democratic-Leaning Tossup (1 seat)

IL-10* (Mark Kirk)

Pure Tossup (2 seats)

FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart)
HI-01 (Charles Djou)

Lean Republican (3 seats)

AZ-03* (John Shadegg)
CA-03 (Dan Lungren)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert)

Likely Republican (5 seats)

FL-12* (Adam Putnam)
KS-04* (Todd Tiahrt)
MI-03* (Vern Ehlers)
PA-06 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Mostly agree, although that's not anywhere near 1994. Even if the GOP manages to win everything pure tossup and beyond, that's only +19 and not even halfway to winning the House. Also don't understand how Cao can only be "Lean Democratic" unless it's on the principle of not having any seats of the other party be anything greater than Lean.

This far out, I err on the side of caution when it comes to incumbents losing re-election; unless it's obvious there's no chance of the incumbent winning, I tend to leave it as a tossup. Once there's more quantitative data out there -- fundraising and polling are my two main determinants -- I'm sure there will be a lot more moving up the list. I even hesitate putting Bright and Minnick as Lean Takeover this early, just because it doesn't seem like they have very good opponents. Cao will probably become Likely Takeover once the Democratic field sizes up, which tends to be late in the game in Louisiana, thanks to their ridiculously-late filing deadlines.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It won't be easy for Dems to hold KS-03 when they still don't have a candidate. I think they'd need a strong Johnson County candidate to hold it, and even that's not assured, since they're facing a landslide at the top of the ticket.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It won't be easy for Dems to hold KS-03 when they still don't have a candidate. I think they'd need a strong Johnson County candidate to hold it, and even that's not assured, since they're facing a landslide at the top of the ticket.

When did Dennis Moore retire? I remember he was thought to be retiring around January but then changed his mind?

There definately will be a landslide atop the ticket with Brownback hitting 65% and hopefully Moran(but even Tiarht) getting close to 60% if not exceeding it.

Right before Thanksgiving:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1109/Dennis_Moore_retiring.html

So far there have been several Republicans getting in (most notably State Rep. Kevin Yoder and 2008 nominee Nick Jordan) but not a single Democrat has come forward. The only ones talking about it are a current and former mayor of Kansas City.

Things are so bad for the Democrats in Kansas that this nutbag is currently their only candidate for Governor:

http://herbertwest3rd.blogspot.com/

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Obama almost certainly carried KS-03 if I'm reading it right. It appears Wynadotte county had a slightly larger margin for Obama than Johnson did for McCain, and though we don't know how the portion of Douglas in it voted exactly, it obviously was for Obama.

Yeah, Obama won it 51-48, but Wyandotte pretty much votes for any Democrat on the ballot. All the Republican has to do to win is run up a decent margin in Johnson County -- Moore's been able to hold the district because he's from Johnson County and has always done well there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why the hell did Moore retire anyway?  He could have at least waited until 2012 when Democrats would have likely had a better chance at holding the seat. 

One district that I am interested in is OH-01.  The district voted heavily for Obama and came within 3,000 votes of going for John Kerry and should be reasonably safe for a moderate Democrat like Driehaus.  If he can pile up a 10,000 vote lead in the Democratic leaning Cincinatti/Hamilton part of the district, it will be more than enough to offset any margin that  Chabot gets in the heavily Republican chunk of Butler county in the district. 

Moore probably saw some bad polling numbers. It's not really a surprise -- he's been voting the Democratic party line this year, which I think is the first time he's ever done that.

OH-01 would be an easy hold for Driehaus if Chabot weren't running again. Normally, incumbents don't do well in two year later rematches, but if the climate is good enough for the Republicans, Chabot could very well make a David Price/Ted Strickland-esque comeback. I'd put his chances below Pearce's, though.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dems keep NJ-3? Unlikely.

Nearly impossible in a Republican year.

Please show me some polling data to that effect. His opponent is a football player who isn't even living in New Jersey right now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm waiting for the year-end reports to do a bigger update, but I have changed these so far:

Democratic seats:

AR-02 (Vic Snyder) moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Snyder retiring and his numbers sucked.
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Good polling numbers for Kissell.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) added to Democratic watch list - Republicans would be fools not to dig up a strong challenger, given Hoeven's likely landslide in the Senate race.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) added to Democratic watch list - former Rep. Fitzpatrick is running against him.
PA-17 (Tim Holden) added to Democratic watch list - strong Republican recruit from Holden's home turf.

Republican seats:

PA-06 (Jim Gerlach) moved to Lean Republican from Pure Tossup - Gerlach back in the saddle.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A few more updates before the 4th quarter fundraising numbers are posted next week.

Democratic seats:

AR-01 (Marion Berry) - added to Lean Republican Takeover - Berry retiring; until a good Democratic candidate steps in this is pretty much considered a loss.
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - added to Democratic watch list - She actually has a legitimate challenger now.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bad poll, you know the drill.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Teague is in the same boat as Chabot, I doubt his poll numbers are any better (especially since the district is more Republican). I'm going on a hunch for this one, but I've expected him to be a one-termer pretty much since he was elected. The terrible climate for Dems and former Rep. Pearce going back to his seat are pretty much sealing this one.
NY-01 (Tim Bishop) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bishop up by 2 in a SUSA poll.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Still no opponent, but he's a freshman in a swing district, so he's not safe until we see who his opposition ends up being.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Rematch with Hanna.
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Terrible poll numbers for Driehaus. This is likely to be a common refrain this year.

Republican seats:

IL-13 (Judy Biggert) - dropped from the list - Harper's fundraising is terrible, this race is not going to be close.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A few more updates before the 4th quarter fundraising numbers are posted next week.

Democratic seats:

AR-01 (Marion Berry) - added to Lean Republican Takeover - Berry retiring; until a good Democratic candidate steps in this is pretty much considered a loss.
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - added to Democratic watch list - She actually has a legitimate challenger now.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bad poll, you know the drill.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Teague is in the same boat as Chabot, I doubt his poll numbers are any better (especially since the district is more Republican). I'm going on a hunch for this one, but I've expected him to be a one-termer pretty much since he was elected. The terrible climate for Dems and former Rep. Pearce going back to his seat are pretty much sealing this one.
NY-01 (Tim Bishop) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bishop up by 2 in a SUSA poll.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Still no opponent, but he's a freshman in a swing district, so he's not safe until we see who his opposition ends up being.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Rematch with Hanna.
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Terrible poll numbers for Driehaus. This is likely to be a common refrain this year.

Republican seats:

IL-13 (Judy Biggert) - dropped from the list - Harper's fundraising is terrible, this race is not going to be close.

NY-01 a tossup?  That poll included no voters under the age of 30 and Bishop still led by two points.  Even a Republican poll put him up 20 points a few weeks back. 

Regardless of the internals, SUSA's polls are generally good.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Post-fourth quarter fundraising update:

Democratic seats:

FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - Republicans' fundraising is not very impressive.
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) - dropped from the list - Mike Keown's fundraising has sputtered to a halt. He's not going to be a challenge to Bishop.
IL-14 (Bill Foster) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - Hultgren won the Republican nomination, and he doesn't look like that strong a candidate.
NY-29 (Eric Massa) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Massa's challenger is pretty unimpressive as far as fundraising goes.
OH-18 (Zack Space) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Space has lame opponents.
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Ribble's fundraising is more like a dribble. Ha ha ha.

Republican seats:

CA-44 (Ken Calvert) - dropped from the list - 2008 appears to have been an aberration and Hedrick is (unsurprisingly) not setting the world on fire with his fundraising.
FL-10 (Bill Young) - moved to Republican Watch List from Likely Republican - Young appears to be running again, and Justice's fundraising is pretty anemic.
FL-12* (Adam Putnam) - dropped from the list - Lori Edwards' fundraising is lacking. Not going to cut it in a Republican-leaning district in this environment.
FL-16 (Tom Rooney) - dropped from the list - Craft has really not turned out to be that great a recruit. He's only raised $100k over two quarters. Rooney will be safe for his sophomore term.
MN-03 (Erik Paulsen) - dropped from the list - Bonoff is not running again, and Paulsen's announced opponents are pretty lame.
MO-08 (Jo Ann Emerson) - dropped from the list - Not gonna happen.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Asterisk denotes open seat, as it says in the OP.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

End of the month, let's have some updates:

Democratic seats:

AR-01* (Marion Berry) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic Takeover - Until the Republicans get a better candidate, the Dems could probably hold this one.
FL-22 (Ron Klein) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Polarized district in a bad climate means Klein has a 50/50 shot of winning at this point.
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth) - added to list at Pure Tossup - Ellsworth running for Senate.
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Complete recruiting failure on the part of the Democrats.
MA-10 (Bill Delahunt) - added to Democratic Watch List - Possible retirement/scandal.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - Surprisingly, Teague is doing not too terribly in the polls.
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Heinrich up a decent margin, but not overwhelming.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - moved to Lean Democoratic from Democratic Watch List - Bad poll from Rasmussen, not so bad poll from R2k. I'm splitting the difference.
NY-19 (John Hall) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Hayworth has outraised Hall, and recent Dem performance in Westchester does not bode well for the Dems.
OH-13 (Betty Sutton) - added to Democratic Watch List - I'm skeptical of the car magnate's chances in this district, but he does have a lot of money.
PA-12* (Jack Murtha) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic Watch List - Murtha's passing makes this a tossup.
TN-06* (Bart Gordon) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Complete recruiting failure on the part of the Democrats.
VA-09 (Rick Boucher) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Boucher finally has an opponent.

Republican seats:

AZ-03* (John Shadegg) - added to Republican Watch List - Not much chance of a Dem takeover, but their candidate is raising some serious money, and there's the possibility of a fractious Repubican primary.
DE-AL* (Mike Castle) - moved to Likely Democratic Takeover from Lean Democratic Takeover - No serious Republican seems to be interested in running, so Carney is just gaining more and more headway.
FL-10 (Bill Young) - dropped from the list - Young running again, and Justice is a flop of a candidate.
MI-11 (Thad McCotter) - dropped from the list - Not looking like the Democrats will field a serious candidate here.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Gotta comment on NY-01 developments:

Had you asked me about Bishop's chances during the health care town halls in the summer, I would have said he was a goner.

Now things are looking up for him.

First of all, a contentious Republican primary is brewing. There are five or six Republicans fighting for the nomination, among them Nixon's grandson, wealthy businessmen, etc.

Term-limited and popular Independent Suffolk County legislator Jay Schneiderman is considering running on the Independence line. This is definitely to Bishop's advantage, and the more cynical political observer would say has been planned by Bishop and Schneiderman (part of the insiders group of Bishop/Schneiderman/LaValle/Thiele) to ensure his reelection.

Now all he needs is the Conservative Party to deviate from the Republican Party's choice. Or to not endorse anyone at all.

Lean Dem for now.

Wouldn't that hurt Bishop, since he's gotten the Independence Party ballot line in every election except for his first run?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A few changes before the post-1Q fundraising reports come out:

Democratic seats:

AL-02 (Bobby Bright) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - Yes, yes, internal poll, but the Republicans didn't have one in response, and besides, Bright is practically a Republican anyway.
AR-01* (Marion Berry) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Recruiting failure for the Republicans.
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - added to Democratic Watch List - Been debating this one, as Chandler has a ton of cash and is personally popular, but Kentucky is not looking so good for the Dems this year and Barr is raising a decent amount of money.
MA-10 (Bill Delahunt) - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Open seat.
NY-29 (Eric Massa)* - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Lean Democratic - Open seat, no Dem bench.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Fitzpatrick running; I'm still not impressed, but he should still have a good fundraising base.
WV-01 (Alan Mollohan) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Not impressed with the cast of challengers, but Mollohan is low on cash.

Republican seats:

FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)* - added to Republican Watch List - Open seat that was competitive in 2008. Won't stay if the Dems fail to recruit someone good, though.
NE-02 (Lee Terry) - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican - Heineman will crush the opposition at the top of the ticket, so Terry will have an easier time of it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The first quarter reports are mostly in, so I have a bunch of race changes:

Democratic seats:

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Surprisingly strong fundraising from Paton.
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
CO-03 (John Salazar) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Frazier is a more serious candidates than most of the $100k/quarter watch list contenders.
CT-04 (Jim Himes) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
CT-05 (Chris Murphy) - added to Democratic Watch List - Republicans have a candidate with deep pockets.
FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Rich dude running.
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) - added to Democratic Watch List - I dropped this before, but this may actually end up being the most competitive House race in Georgia, as neither Barrow nor Marshall have drawn serious challengers.
HI-01* (Neil Abercrombie) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic Watch List - Democrats seem to be trying to make this their NY-23.
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Top of the ticket is going to be a drag, and Kinzinger is a pretty decent candidate.
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Likely Republican Takeover - Hey, the Democrats have a candidate now! But they're probably still going to lose this seat!
LA-03* (Charlie Melancon) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Big-time Republican recruit.
MI-01* (Bart Stupak) - added to list at Pure Tossup - Open seat.
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Environment, negative coattails, whatever.
MS-04 (Gene Taylor) - added to Democratic Watch List - Taylor let himself get outraised in 1Q; will this be the year he cruises to defeat?
NV-03 (Dina Titus) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Heck's polling has him ahead; I'm willing to believe it's a tossup.
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Her fundraising suuuuuucks.
NJ-12 (Rush Holt) - added to Democratic Watch List - Yet another moneybags Republican.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Polls (well, Rasmussen poll) still suck for Pomeroy.
OR-01 (David Wu) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Fundraising, GOP, blah blah blah.
RI-01* (Patrick Kennedy) - added to Democratic Watch List - Open seat, although I think that probably makes it safer than if Kennedy were running again.
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Uninspiring poll numbers for SHS.
UT-02 (Jim Matheson) - dropped from the list - Matheson's likely opponent, Morgan Philpot, raised all of $15k in 1Q. You can't win with no money.
WA-02 (Rick Larsen) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
WV-01 (Alan Mollohan) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Fundraising, GOP, blah blah blah.

Republican seats:

AL-03 (Mike Rogers) - dropped from the list - Josh Segall dropped out.
DE-AL* (Mike Castle) - moved to Lean Democratic Takeover from Likely Democratic Takeover - Republicans finally have a (serious) candidate, assuming she makes it out of the primary.
FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - moved to Likely Republican from Republican Watch List - Democrats finally recruited a strong candidate somewhere!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.

Dont know why people are now suddenly saying NJ-12 will be competitive.  The one county(Hunterdon) that gave Republicans a base in the district was removed in redistricting.  

I'm not trying to go all Mr. Moderate and say "OMGZ CHRISTIE = REPUBLICANS WIN NEW JERSEY!!!", but they have raised a bumper crop of rich people to run in Democratic districts this year (against Holt, Pallone, and Rothman). Holt has the least money of the three, and stranger things have happened, especially since there's no statewide race to drive turnout.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.

Remember that Salazar voted for healthcare, despite being a blue doge, and that McCain was able to squeak out a victory there.  That's basically why I view it as more competitive, but of course, I'm not looking in-depth at the candidates and their fundraising and such.

Going by Green Papers (I think it is total raised so far)
Tipton has about $250,000 Salazar has about $980,000
Gardner has about $850,000 Markey has about $1.6 Million
Frazier has about $650,000 Perlmutter has about $1.2 Million

Yeah, that's the total raised. Cash on hand is a little different. Salazar has $1.1m, Tipton has $191k. Markey has $1.25m, Gardner $540k. And Perlmutter also has $1.25m, while Frazier has $379k.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.

Remember that Salazar voted for healthcare, despite being a blue doge, and that McCain was able to squeak out a victory there.  That's basically why I view it as more competitive, but of course, I'm not looking in-depth at the candidates and their fundraising and such.

Going by Green Papers (I think it is total raised so far)
Tipton has about $250,000 Salazar has about $980,000
Gardner has about $850,000 Markey has about $1.6 Million
Frazier has about $650,000 Perlmutter has about $1.2 Million

Yeah, that's the total raised. Cash on hand is a little different. Salazar has $1.1m, Tipton has $191k. Markey has $1.25m, Gardner $540k. And Perlmutter also has $1.25m, while Frazier has $379k.

Are there any websites that have COH info easily available?

http://fec.gov/finance/disclosure/srssea.shtml

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Johnny, if you had to decide right now, would you guess that Nye and Perriello will be reelected or not?

I couldn't possibly guess at this point.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Primary season has pushed me to move a bunch of races.

Democratic seats:

FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Crappy internal poll.
GA-08 (Jim Marshall) - moved to Lean Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Pretty decent recruit for the Republicans, and this is not the district for a Democrat to be in this year.
GA-12 (John Barrow) - dropped from the list - No serious Republican running.
HI-01* (Neil Abercrombie) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Dems giving up.
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Another Appalachian seat at risk.
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Harris is doing better moneywise than in 2008, which was about the only advantage Kratovil had.
NH-02* (Paul Hodes) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Bad PPP poll.
NY-13 (Michael McMahon) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Republicans are showing some life here.
OH-06 (Charlie Wilson) - added to Likely Democratic - Seems like the region is hating on the Dems.
OH-13 (Betty Sutton) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - She'd better get her butt in gear.
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Kilroy is incredibly weak, Stivers is a strong opponent, I doubt she survives.
OH-18 (Zack Space) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - More for the regional stuff than his opponent.
TX-17 (Chet Edwards) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bad internal poll from the Flores camp.
VA-09 (Rick Boucher) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Appalachia etc.
WV-01* (Alan Mollohan) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Open seat now.
WV-03 (Nick Rahall) - added to Democratic Watch List - Joke opponents, but Appalachia is not looking good for any Democrat right now.
WI-07* (Dave Obey) - moved to Pure Tossup from Democratic Watch List - Obey retiring.

Republican seats:

OH-02 (Jean Schmidt) - dropped from the list - I think Schmidt's chronic underperformance has come to an end.
NE-02 (Lee Terry) - moved to Lean Republican from Likely Republican - Poor primary performance.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is "hates black people" a more accurate description?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A few small changes:

Democratic seats:

HI-01 (Charles Djou) - moved from Lean Republican Takeover to Pure Tossup (on the Republican-held seat list) - Djou wins special election.
ID-01 (Walt Minnick) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - Being the token teabagger-supported Democrat will probably help Minnick. Plus his opponent has no money.
NJ-03 (John Adler) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - Jon Runyon is, not surprisingly, turning out to be a bit of a flop.
NC-11 (Heath Shuler) - added to Democratic Watch List - Another Appalachian district to watch.
OH-16 (John Boccieri) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Bad Republican poll.
PA-12 (Mark Critz) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Critz won convincingly.

Republican seats:

VA-01 (Rob Wittman) - dropped from the list - Doesn't look like anything will happen here.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Once the second-quarter fundraising reports come out, I plan on doing some reorganizing of my list (not that anyone cares). Until then, here's a few changes:

Changes since last time:

Democratic seats:

AR-01* (Marion Berry) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Despite the crappy Republican candidate, I'm not feeling at all confident in the Dems' ability to hold this seat.
AR-02* (Vic Snyder) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Dems chose a bad candidate.
MA-10* (Bill Delahunt) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Democrats running as independents? This can't end well.
NC-02 (Bob Etheridge) - added to list at Likely Democratic - Congratulations on making yourself a target.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Crapload of post-2Q fundraising changes:

Democratic seats:

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Obama administration fighting the Arizona immigration bill is probably not good news for Arizona Dems.
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - See above.
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - See above.
ID-01 (Walt Minnick) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Can't believe I'm doing this, but the Republican effort here has been a big batch of fail.
IL-14 (Bill Foster) - moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic - Illinois is not going to be a great state for coattails.
CT-04 (Jim Himes) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Republican challengers with some serious cash.
CT-05 (Chris Murphy) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - See above.
IL-17 (Phil Hare) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Challenger has been raising decent money.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Lean Democratic from Pure Tossup - Hill's opponent has much less cash, plus he released a poll showing Hill in the lead.
KY-03 (John Yarmuth) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger had a good fundraising quarter.
MN-01 (Tim Walz) - added to Democratic Watch List - Challenger with decent money.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Murphy's challenger raised a bunch of money.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - The hapless Arcuri seems doomed, given his all-over-the-place voting record and a rematch with the guy he barely beat in 2008.
NY-29* (Eric Massa) - moved to Likely Republican Takeover from Lean Republican Takeover - Zeller really has no shot at winning this thing. Tom Reed is a crappy fundraiser and still managed to outraise him.
NC-02 (Bob Etheridge) - dropped from the list - Way to not take advantage of a gaffe caught on tape, Renee Ellmers.
NC-11 (Heath Shuler) - dropped from the list - Looks like Miller isn't going to make much of a dent.
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - Pomeroy is doing badly in the Rasmussen polls, plus his opponent is raising buckets of cash, plus Hoeven will be winning atop the ticket with 70+% of the vote.
OR-01 (David Wu) - added to Democratic Watch List - I'm skeptical that Wu is in serious trouble, but his opponent has raised a fair bit of money, and Kitzhaber isn't doing that great at the top of the ticket.
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic - 10-1 cash advantage. Ouch.
PA-10 (Chris Carney) - dropped from the list - Marino has been a spectacular failure of a candidate so far, I don't see him turning things around in the last three months.
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski) - moved to Lean Republican Takeover from Pure Tossup - I don't put too much stock in internal polls, but after Kanjo's pathetic performance in 2008, I see no reason not to believe he isn't going down this year.
PA-17 (Tim Holden) - dropped from the list - Another candidate that's turned out to be a big flop, it doesn't look like Argall will do much in his challenge to Holden.
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - SHS isn't doing so well in those Rasmussen polls, plus she's been lucky the last two cycles.
TN-08* (John Tanner) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Republican Takeover - The Republican primary is getting messy, and Herron seems to be a pretty strong candidate.
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Big fundraising quarter for Canseco (thanks to self-funding), not so much for Rodriguez.

Republican seats:

NE-02 (Lee Terry) - moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican - Lame fundraising quarter for Tom White.