The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung poll:

Fischer: 82%
Rosenkranz: 12%
Gehring: 6%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100410_OTS0004/profil-acht-von-zehn-bei-bundespraesidentenwahl-fuer-heinz-fischer

Vorarlberg presidential poll for the VN:

Fischer: 72%
Rosenkranz: 20%
Gehring: 8%

http://activepaper.tele.net/vntipps/Bundespraesident_Wahl_Umfrage_VN_Berndt.pdf

New Vienna state elections poll by Gallup for Ö24:

SPÖ: 44% (-5 compared with 2005)
FPÖ: 22% (+7)
ÖVP: 16% (-3)
GRE: 15% (nc)
OTH: 3% (+1)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100411_OTS0001/oesterreich-umfrage-fuer-wien-haeupl-baut-ab-behaelt-aber-mit-44-prozent-klar-die-mehrheit

[Tender Branson]

Vienna mayor says Turkish schools 'possible'

Social Democratic (SPÖ) Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl revealed he could imagine Turkish schools in Austria.

Speaking at a joint press conference with Kadri Ecvet Tezcan, Turkey’s ambassador in Austria, Häupl said today (Fri) he thought it was "possible" that there would be Turkish schools in the Austrian capital one day.

The mayor also stressed however how important it was that young Turks living in Vienna take mother language courses. Around 6,000 immigrant students from the country currently sit such classes.

Tezcan said experts have pointed out that mastering one’s mother tongue was essential to being able to learn a foreign language. He stressed this was a key condition for functioning integration.

There are around 15,900 children of Turkish roots born in Turkey or Austria attending primary and secondary schools in the city. They make a 13.7 per cent share of children at primary schools, and a 17.8 per cent share at Hauptschulen (secondary modern schools).

But attempts at ensuring a peaceful coexistence in Austria have suffered some sort of setback with the results of an IMAS survey revealing earlier this week that 54 per cent of Austrians agreed with the statement "Islam poses a threat for the west and our familiar lifestyle".

The agency said it had also found out 72 per cent believed Muslims would "not stick to the rules" when it comes to living in Austria.

Around 500,000 Muslims live in Austria, most of them in the western province of Vorarlberg and in Vienna.

While Freedom Party (FPÖ) boss Heinz-Christian Strache said the IMAS study’s results confirmed his party’s policies, Greens MP Alev Korun said there must be more encounters and communication between people to reduce lack of knowledge about religions and lifestyles.

"Not being informed about other’s living customs and religions is a hotbed for prejudice and fear," she claimed.

Vienna People’s Party’s (ÖVP) integration issues spokeswoman Sirvan Ekici meanwhile claimed the Vienna SPÖ’s "failed integration policies" created perfect conditions for the policies of the right-wing FPÖ.

Polls have shown that the ruling SPÖ is under threat of losing its absolute majority in this autumn’s Vienna parliament elections, while the FPÖ will almost certainly increase its share.

http://austrianindependent.com/news/Politics/2010-04-09/2057/Vienna_mayor_says_Turkish_schools_%27possible%27

...

Damn, Häupl's really trying hard to lose the election (or better said lose more than 10% of the votes compared with 2005) ...

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg presidential poll by IGF for the SF:

Fischer: 76%
Rosenkranz: 11%
Gehring: 6%
Invalid: 7%

Salzburg state elections poll, also by IGF:

ÖVP: 40% (+3)
SPÖ: 38% (-1)
FPÖ: 12% (-1)
GRE: 7% (nc)
BZÖ: 1% (-3)
OTH: 2% (+2)

http://www.salzburger-fenster.at/rubrik/lokales/1310/sf-umfrage-fischer-76-rosenkranz_15725.html

[Tender Branson]

With slightly over a week until the Presidential elections, the Greens have now officially endorsed President Fischer`s reelection.

That was no surprise, because the Greens have almost a moral obligation to back Fischer in light of Rosenkranz's backwards Nazi ideology and was also clear before the endorsement, because in the polls Green voters backed Fischer even more than SPÖ voters.

Plus, the OSCE will send a small team to monitor the elections here (a routine procedure in EU council countries, I guess they were also invited to monitor US elections previously).

The interesting part is that a lot of the members from the OSCE team are coming from really "democratic" countries like Belarus, Georgia and Moldova. Salzburg's mayor even thought it was an April joke that these guys would monitor our elections ...

[Tender Branson]

Rosenkranz gets grilled by students from Vienna and Tyrol for 1 hour on ORF:

http://tvthek.orf.at/topics/Bundespr%C3%A4sidentschaftswahl/1347086-Wahl-10---Meine-Frage/segments/1348406-wahl-10---meine-frage

There won`t be a TV debate between President Fischer and Rosenkranz though. Rosenkranz of course wants to debate Fischer, but he has declined - because he said that no incumbent President has ever debated a challenger.

I´ve watched this thing and after the debate with the students it was really clear that Rosenkranz has virtually zero appeal to first time voters, despite the fact that almost 40% of first time voters voted for the FPÖ in the 2008 parliamentary elections.

Contrary to 2008 where first time voters turned out like the rest of the electorate with 80%, many young voters might just stay at home, because Strache is not the candidate. Strache is popular with the young crowd, Rosenkranz - who`s living in a time span from 1200 to 1945 - is not.

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the newspaper "Standard":

Fischer: 60%
Rosenkranz: 15%
Gehring: 4%
Undecided/Invalid: 21%

http://derstandard.at/1271374535289/Umfrage-Fischers-Ansehen-steigt-Rosenkranz-verliert

New Gallup poll for the newspaper "Österreich":

Fischer: 80%
Rosenkranz: 16%
Gehring: 4%

Almost 1/5 of those questioned (17%) indicate that they will vote "invalid" on election day. That would be the highest share in a presidential election, in 1980 the record was 7% invalid votes.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-17--waehlen-weiss-0690005.ece

APA/OGM trust index:

Fischer: 72% trust, 24% no trust

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/BundespolitikerInnen_April10_HP1.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Latest Profil/Karmasin Motivforschung poll:

Fischer: 82%
Rosenkranz: 13%
Gehring: 5%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100417_OTS0009/profil-mehr-als-acht-von-zehn-bei-bundespraesidentenwahl-fuer-heinz-fischer

[Tender Branson]

Another one of the billion reasons not to vote for Rosenkranz:

Der Auftakt zum Höhepunkt des Abends: die Feuerrede von Rosenkranz. Die freiheitliche Landesrätin widmet sich vor allem der mythischen Bedeutung des Feuers, vergangenen Geschlechtern und jenem Brauch, der den Wendepunkt ehrt, „an dem die Zeit des Keimens, des Blühens, des Wachsens zu Ende geht und in die Zeit der Ernte, des Fruchtens und der schlussendlichen Ruhe überführt“. Dazwischen etwas Friedrich Nietzsche, ehe sie in den Niederungen der Realität landet, ein Stilbruch fast, gemeine Worte. „Jede Hure (findet) großes öffentliches Interesse, jeder Transvestitenrummel eine wohlwollende Berichterstattung, die mütterliche Frau dagegen – wenn überhaupt wahrgenommen – wird als Beispiel eines veralteten Rollenbilds allenfalls belächelt“, sagt Rosenkranz. Dankbarer Applaus. Zum Abschluss stimmt die deutschnationale Gesellschaft noch gemeinsam das berüchtigte SS-Lied an, das im so genannten „Dritten Reich“ jeweils bei der Vereidigung eines Neuzugangs zur SS gesungen wurde: „Wenn alle untreu werden“. Ursprünglich handelte es sich dabei um ein Studentenlied, getextet von Max von Schenkendorf. In der NS-Zeit verlor es seine Unschuld. Die Nazis hatten es umgeschrieben. Zuweilen taucht das Lied auch in einer gemäßigten österreichischen Variante auf. Auf der Waldlichtung im Juni 2008 tönte es aus vollen Kehlen in der SS-Version.

http://www.profil.at/articles/1015/560/266632/flamme-barbara-rosenkranz-lieder

Hopefully Austrians are smart enough to keep her below 10% in the elections.

[Tender Branson]

LOL:

[freek]

LOL:

http://www.salzi.at/svmanager/g439/images/IMG_4068.JPG

A member of "Garden gnomes for Rosenkranz"? .

[Tender Branson]

Some important numbers:

Despite the fact that there was no TV debate between President Fischer and Rosenkranz or Fischer and Gehring, the 2 challengers of Fischer debated each other 2 days ago on ORF.

The debate between Rosenkranz and Gehring had about 550.000 watchers, despite the fact that they started at 10pm. This is a very good showing.

On the other hand, President Fischer wanted to sway 30 declared non-voters to go to the polls on Sunday, by answering their question on the TV station ATV at 8pm. The show was watched by only 132.000 people.

There was also a "Meet the Press" on the previous Sunday, where Fischer was asked questions by 2 journalists. It was seen by 169.000, the week before Rosenkranz had 251.000 watchers on this show.

Don`t know what it means for the election, but I guess the polls are slightly overestimating Fischer right now and if he´s not able to motivate his SPÖ/Green voters good enough in the final days, he might even drop below 70% on election day.

[Hans-im-Glück]

The ÖVP has no own candidate. So I can't understand that the ÖVP don't endorse Fischer. Rosenkranz and Gehring are both radical idiots and for a common ÖVP-voter unelectable.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP has no own candidate. So I can't understand that the ÖVP don't endorse Fischer. Rosenkranz and Gehring are both radical idiots and for a common ÖVP-voter unelectable.

The high-ranking ÖVP and BZÖ officials argue that an endorsement of Fischer is unnecessary, because voters are politically mature enough to make a decision.

Even though the high ranking ÖVP officials (Vice-Chancellor and ministers) have not spoken out in favor of any candidate, some lower level ÖVP officials have endorsed Fischer. I´m not aware that any prominent ÖVP person has endorsed either Rosenkranz or Gehring.

I´m not entirely sure what the non-endorsements by ÖVP and BZÖ will mean on election day. Some ÖVP and BZÖ voters will surely cross over and vote for Rosenkranz or Gehring, but to what extent is unclear.

There was an important mayoral election last year in the city of Wels (Upper Austria), where the incumbent SPÖ mayor ran for re-election against a right-wing FPÖ idiot.

The first round results were:

SPÖ: 43%
FPÖ: 29%
ÖVP: 20%
GRE: 6%
KPÖ: 2%

The second round results were:

SPÖ: 53%
FPÖ: 47%

Turnout was the same in both rounds. That means that roughly 90% of ÖVP voters from the 1st round backed the FPÖ dude in the second round.

And now calculate what this would mean if 90% of ÖVP/BZÖ voters back Rosenkranz on Sunday ... Won´t happen, but still, if even 20% of these people back her, it would be an upset for her.

On the other side, only the Greens have officially endorsed Fischer, but that doesn`t really matter because even before the endorsement, Green voters backed Fischer with over 90% of the vote - higher than Fischer`s share among SPÖ voters.

Plus: Here`s the final number of people eligible to vote on Sunday

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

There`s the ATV debate between Rosenkranz (FPÖ) and Gehring (CPÖ) right now.

Here`s the live-stream:

http://blog.atv.at/ampunkt

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, the Presidential Election will take place.

Polls are open from 7am to 5pm. I guess turnout can be anywhere between 50% and 75%, but I think it will be lower than the 72% in 2004, simply because of the fact that the ÖVP didn`t nominate a candidate and many other voters are not satisfied with the choice between a Socialist, a Nazi and a Christian Fundamentalist. Plus: Many voters will either not vote or vote invalid, because they think that the office of President is completely unnecessary and should be abolished. They think the Chancellor and government is enough. After all, I think the election will be similar to the 1980 Presidential Election, when incumbent President Rudolf Kirchschläger (SPÖ) was re-elected in a 80% landslide against a FPÖ-guy and a Neo-Nazi.

The final polls indicate the following:

Heinz Fischer (SPÖ-incumbent): ~ 80%
Barbara Rosenkranz (FPÖ): ~ 15%
Rudolf Gehring (CPÖ): ~ 5%

Here are a few charts concerning Presidential elections in Austria:



(The Presidents of Austria by party, SPÖ = red, ÖVP = black, and their election results)

 
 
(The number of people eligible to vote by state) (The turnout and the expected turnout for 2010)



(A short historical portrait of the candidates)

Here`s the English version of the Rosenkranz challenge:



"The voice of Barbara Rosenkranz rises above the small crowd in the Ballhausplatz as she makes the case for the far Right in Austria’s presidential elections tomorrow.

Her chin is square, her hair forms a tight grey helmet. Ms Rosenkranz, mother of ten children, is, for another 24 hours at least, the great white hope of the radical nationalists in Europe.

She is destined to lose against the incumbent President, Heinz Fischer, but if she nets more than 20 per cent of the vote it will be seen as the most significant comeback in Austria since the death of the far-right idol Jörg Haider 18 months ago.

“The family is at the heart of our society and it has been betrayed,” she says, raising her voice to drown out the hoots of left-wing demonstrators. The crowd, mainly Freedom Party supporters still mourning Haider, applaud. The word verrat — betrayal — always goes down well in Vienna. They are craggy men in green jackets, a woman shivering in a low-cut dirndl folk dress and a surprising number of young fans — there largely to see Heinz-Christian Strache, 40-year-old leader of the far Right. He and Ms Rosenkranz are the faces of the radical Right revival. He talks of a modern patriotism and the threat of Islam; she thinks that women should stay at home and breed, and that national socialists should not be muzzled."

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article7106865.ece

Results can be found here tomorrow starting at 5pm local time:

http://wahl10.bmi.gv.at

I predict the following result:

Fischer: 67%
Rosenkranz: 24%
Gehring: 9%

Invalid votes as a share of total ballots cast: 15%

Total turnout (incl. postal votes): 63%

[Tender Branson]

Polls have just openend and I`ll vote (for President Fischer, obviously) in about 1 hour.

My parents, normally right-wing voters, will stay home this time.

As for the weather, the sky is blue with no clouds in all of Austria today and up to 24°C.

[Tender Branson]

First results from Austria`s smallest town, Gramais in Tyrol:

Fischer: 21 votes (77.8%)
Rosenkranz: 5 votes (18.5%)
Gehring: 1 vote (3.7%)

Turnout: 65.8% (-26.5%)

2004:

Ferrero-Waldner: 31 votes (86.1%)
Fischer: 5 votes (13.9%)

2008 Parliament:

ÖVP: 64.9%
BZÖ: 13.5%
FPÖ: 5.4%
SPÖ: 5.4%
Grüne: 5.4%
FRITZ: 5.4%

[Tender Branson]

Polls are closing in roughly 45 minutes and turnout is down by about 20% or more.

The state of Vorarlberg is already fully counted and according to some internal party sources the results there are:

Fischer: 82%
Gehring: 10%
Rosenkranz: 8% (LOLOL)

Turnout: 34% (-21%)

[Tender Branson]

The town of Sonntag (Vorarlberg):

Fischer: 58%
Gehring: 40%
Rosenkranz: 2%

[Tender Branson]

Polls in the country close in 10 minutes. First Exit-Polls will be released then.

Here`s a live-stream from ORF:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/1364044

[Tender Branson]

17:00 - First SORA/ORF Exit Poll (Based on 55% of precincts counted)

Heinz Fischer (Incumbent President - SPÖ/endorsed by the Greens): 78.7%

Barbara Rosenkranz (FPÖ): 15.5%

Rudolf Gehring (CPÖ): 5.8%

.....

Turnout: 48.5% (-23%)

[Tender Branson]

Great result for Fischer and to some extent even for the Christian fundie Gehring, because the CPÖ normally receives only 1% in parliamentary elections.

15% for Rosenkranz is a desaster, because the FPÖ polls at 20%+ right now and not even did she fail to get her own election goal of 17%+ (the best result for a FPÖ presidential candidate, Gredler in 1980), but also did she fail to get the 35% that FPÖ-boss Strache predicted.

Seems like Austria doesn`t like the Nazis after all.

Too bad that only 50% went to the polls (incl. the remaining postal votes).

[KuntaKinte]

Too bad that only 50% went to the polls (incl. the remaining postal votes).

The ÖVP is to blame for this, to some extent.

[Tender Branson]

Best result for Rosenkranz so far:

Sankt Georgen am Fillmannsbach (Upper Austria)

Fischer: 53%
Rosenkranz: 44%
Gehring: 3%

My county (Zell am See) is already fully counted:

Fischer: 78.4%
Rosenkranz: 16.3%
Gehring: 5.3%

Turnout: 47.3%

[Tender Branson]

Of the counties that are already fully counted, Rosenkranz at more than 20% only in the Carinthia counties ...