The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

The states of Vorarlberg and Burgenland now fully counted:

Vorarlberg

Fischer: 81.1%
Gehring: 10.8%
Rosenkranz: 8.1%

Turnout: 34.3% (out of that 4.0% invalid)

Burgenland

Fischer: 79.0%
Rosenkranz: 15.5%
Gehring: 5.5%

Turnout: 64.1% (out of that 10.8% invalid)

[Tender Branson]

derStandard.at has a nice map thing with results from all towns, district and states:

http://derstandard.at/1271374985945/Alle-Wahlergebnisse-im-Detail

[Tender Branson]

The state of Carinthia now fully counted:

Fischer: 73.4%
Rosenkranz: 20.8%
Gehring: 5.8%

Turnout: 46.4% (out of that 7.7% invalid)

[Tender Branson]

3 more states now fully counted:

Salzburg

Fischer: 77.8%
Rosenkranz: 15.9%
Gehring: 6.3%

Turnout: 48.3% (out of that 6.9% invalid)

Upper Austria

Fischer: 78.9%
Rosenkranz: 15.3%
Gehring: 5.8%

Turnout: 52.2% (out of that 7.2% invalid)

Styria

Fischer: 78.2%
Rosenkranz: 16.0%
Gehring: 5.8%

Turnout: 44.2% (out of that 6.3% invalid)

[Tender Branson]

The state of Tyrol now fully counted:

Fischer: 80.8%
Rosenkranz: 13.0%
Gehring: 6.2%

Turnout: 36.9% (out of that 3.9% invalid)

[Tender Branson]

After a few Vienna districts already reporting, it is clear that the capital is not much different from the rest of Austria when it comes to support for Rosenkranz.

I guess she`ll get 14-15% there.

[Tender Branson]

If anyone creates a map from the results, it will be pretty red.

Fischer is above 50% in every of the roughly 2400 Austrian cities so far.

[Tender Branson]

The state of Lower Austria is now fully counted:

Fischer: 77.8%
Rosenkranz: 17.0%
Gehring: 5.2%

Turnout: 59.9% (out of that 9.5% invalid)

And we are waiting only for Vienna anymore ... (should be counted in about half an hour)

[Tender Branson]

Vienna now fully counted:

Fischer: 82.5%
Rosenkranz: 14.1%
Gehring: 3.4%

Turnout: 46.2% (out of that 5.7% invalid)

.....

That means we have a preliminary final result for Austria (excl. about 200.000 postal votes that will be counted in the coming days):

Total votes cast: 3.124.953 (49.2% of eligible voters)
Invalid votes: 226.986 (7.3%)
Valid votes: 2.897.967 (92.7%)

Fischer: 2.287.640 votes (78.9%)
Rosenkranz: 452.615 (15.6%)
Gehring: 157.712 (5.4%)

I`d say that the postal votes will push Fischer close to the 80% barrier and Rosenkranz will go down to about 15% and Gehring to 5%.

[Tender Branson]

A pretty interesting result is the fact that Rosenkranz got only 7-8% in 3 of the 4 Vorarlberg districts, while she got 8.5% in Vienna-07.

Context:

Vorarlberg is the most conservative state in Austria. The Right got about 80% there in last years state election.

Vienna-07 is the most liberal district in Austria, with 70-80% voting for the Left and about 35-40% for the Greens (many students and hippies there).

[KuntaKinte]

Amazing how geographically consistent the results are, especially the Fischer vote. I would have expected at least Carinthia to deviate significantly.

[Tender Branson]

Amazing how geographically consistent the results are, especially the Fischer vote. I would have expected at least Carinthia to deviate significantly.

I think this always happens in landslides like this.

No wonder that Carinthia has the highest share for her, it also has the highest Far-Right pool.

Lower Austria, Salzburg and Styria are the next best states for Rosenkranz.

Probably has slightly to do with the home state effect, Rosenkranz is living and working in Lower Austria and was born in Salzburg.

The 2004 Presidential candidate of the ÖVP, Ferrero-Waldner, was also from Salzburg and had also relatively good results there.

The fact that Rosenkranz did so poorly in Vorarlberg, Tyrol and Vienna is probably due to the fact that the Kronen Zeitung`s exposure is very low in Vorarlberg and Tyrol and Vienna is more liberal and urban.

[Hash]

Rosenkranz was also too bouregois of a candidate to do well with working-class voters who vote for Strache. IIRC, a lot of FPO voters in Vienna are in old working-class areas.

[Tender Branson]

The county map:



Light: 0-10%
Medium: 10-20%
Dark: 20%+

[Tender Branson]

New poll by Karmasin for Profil:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 33%
FPÖ: 19%
GRE: 12%
BZÖ: 2%
OTH: 1%

Let´s see how this will change in the coming weeks, maybe an SPÖ gain in the polls ?

[minionofmidas]

Heh.

[Hash]

[minionofmidas]

I would guess the Gehring map to be marginally the most interesting. And turnout o/c.

[Hash]

I would guess the Gehring map to be marginally the most interesting. And turnout o/c.

Der Standard has maps for Gehring its interactive mapping applet. His map clearly shows that like 90% of his voters are OVP voters. His best results are traditionally OVP. Like, for example, 6.9% in Vienna's Innere Stadt.

[Tender Branson]

I guess the 2016 map will be slightly less boring ...

[Tender Branson]

First glimpse at the Exit poll by SORA (the full Exit poll will be released today):

Kronen Zeitung readers: 79% Fischer, 14% Rosenkranz, 6% Gehring
Other newspaper readers: 78% Fischer, 18% Rosenkranz, 4% Gehring

Men: 74% Fischer, 17% Rosenkranz, 8% Gehring
Women: 83% Fischer, 13% Rosenkranz, 3% Gehring

Voters below 30: 74% Fischer, 22% Rosenkranz, 5% Gehring
Voters older than 60: 83% Fischer, 13% Rosenkranz, 4% Gehring

2008 SPÖ voters: 83% Fischer, 12% stayed home, 4% Rosenkranz, 1% Gehring
2008 ÖVP voters: 46% stayed home, 44% Fischer, 6% Gehring, 4% Rosenkranz
2008 FPÖ voters: 63% stayed home, 25% Rosenkranz, 11% Fischer, 2% Gehring
2008 BZÖ voters: 60% stayed home, 21% Rosenkranz, 17% Fischer, 2% Gehring
2008 GRE voters: 83% Fischer, 14% stayed home, 2% Rosenkranz, 2% Gehring

[Tender Branson]

More from the Exit Poll:

About 48% did not vote for President this time.

This is how 2010 non voters break down by declared 2008 voters:

46% were already non-voters in 2008.
18% FPÖ
15% ÖVP
10% BZÖ
5% SPÖ
2% GRE
4% OTH

So, it´s pretty clear that it was primarily the Right voters, who stayed at home.

Those who voted invalid this time, broken down by declared 2008 voters:

55% ÖVP
15% are 2008 voters, who voted invalid
13% SPÖ
6% GRE
5% FPÖ
3% BZÖ

Heinz Fischer voters, by 2008 voters:

47% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
17% GRE
4% FPÖ
3% BZÖ
6% OTH
1% Invalid
0% Non-Voters

Barbara Rosenkranz voters, by 2008 voters:

44% FPÖ
23% BZÖ
12% SPÖ
11% ÖVP
2% GRE
3% OTH
2% Invalid
2% Non-Voters

Rudolf Gehring voters, by 2008 voters:

45% ÖVP
10% SPÖ
8% FPÖ
7% BZÖ
5% GRE
20% OTH
2% Invalid
4% Non-Voters

[Tender Branson]

Our "Miss South Carolina" -> from the FPÖ:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3im7JkEKXmg

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Blamage-fuer-FPOe-Funktionaerin-auf-Oe3-0691722.ece

LOL

[Tender Branson]

Here`s another fact:



Despite winning the 2010 election with 80% of the vote, President Fischer received only the same amount of votes like he did in the 2004 election when he won with only 52%, measured as a percentage of total eligible voters.

He received just 36% of the eligible voters in both elections, because turnout was lower by 20%.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Our "Miss South Carolina" -> from the FPÖ:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3im7JkEKXmg

That's very funny