The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[Tender Branson]

The remaining postal votes of the Presidential Election will be counted today.

A total of about 376.000 postal votes were issued and I expect that about 150.000 of them will be added to the preliminary results from Sunday.

That would increase final turnout to about 52%, up from 49%.

I´ll post final results in the evening.

[Tender Branson]

I´ll post final results in the evening.

Here are the final results with all postal votes counted:

Dr. Heinz Fischer: 2.508.373 votes (79.3%)
Barbara Rosenkranz: 481.923 votes (15.2%)
Dr. Rudolf Gehring: 171.668 votes (5.4%)

Eligible voters: 6.355.568
Total votes cast: 3.404.646
Invalid votes: 242.682
Valid votes: 3.161.964
Total turnout: 53.6% (-18.0%)

Postal votes alone:

Dr. Heinz Fischer: 220.365 votes (83.6%)
Barbara Rosenkranz: 29.047 votes (11.0%)
Dr. Rudolf Gehring: 14.161 votes (5.4%)

Total number of postal votes: 279.245
Invalid postal votes: 15.672
Valid postal votes: 263.573

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll (800 people 16+ questioned, 28./29. April):

SPÖ: 31% (+3)
ÖVP: 31% (-2)
FPÖ: 19% (-2)
GRE: 13% (nc)
BZÖ: 3% (+1)
OTH: 3% (nc)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100430_OTS0335/oesterreich-umfrage-fischer-effekt-fuer-faymann-spoe-zieht-mit-oevp-gleich

Do you want to bail out the Greeks with 3 Bio. $ ?

29% Yes
58% No

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100429_OTS0318/oesterreich-grosse-mehrheit-der-oesterreicher-gegen-griechen-hilfe

[Tender Branson]

Here is the Wahlkabine for Burgenland (state elections there on May 30):

http://politikkabine.at/wahlen/index.php?page=voter.Questionnaire

My results:

SPÖ: 75%
ÖVP: 66%
Greens: 55%
Liste Burgenland: 53%
FPÖ: 47%

[Hans-im-Glück]

My Result:

1.  The Greens  83.6%     
2.  SPÖ  64.1%     
3.  Liste Burgenland  49.6%     
4.  FPÖ 46.7%     
5.  ÖVP  37.4%


What is the "Liste Burgenland" and have they a chance to come into the Parliament?

[Tender Branson]

What is the "Liste Burgenland" and have they a chance to come into the Parliament?

The "Liste Burgenland" is a new centrist independent group, similar to the "Freie Wähler" in Germany, running in this years state elections. I´d say they won`t get more than 2-3% of the votes.

Plus:

Here`s a new federal Market poll for the newspaper Standard, after the Presidential elections.

ÖVP: 29%
SPÖ: 28%
FPÖ: 22%
GRE: 12%
BZÖ: 5%
OTH: 4%

Seems like the Rosenkranz defeat had no impact on the FPÖ numbers.

The BZÖ wasn`t in the news until yesterday, when they adopted a new party program at their convention in Vienna. The program is now more centrist and even has a few Green and Social-Democratic aspects. Let`s see how this affects poll numbers in the future.

[minionofmidas]

Greens 75.7
SPÖ 62.4
Liste Burgenland 38.0
ÖVP 37.4
FPÖ 36.6

[Tender Branson]

The final results of the 2010 Presidential Election were announced yesterday:

Dr. Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 2.508.373 votes (79.33%)
Barbara Rosenkranz (FPÖ): 481.923 votes (15.24%)
Dr. Rudolf Gehring (CPÖ): 171.668 votes (5.43%)

Eligible voters: 6.355.800
Total votes cast: 3.404.646
Invalid votes cast: 242.682 (7.13%)
Valid votes cast: 3.161.964
Turnout: 53.57%

http://wahl10.bmi.gv.at

Here`s an Excel-sheet with results from all Austrian towns, districts, electoral districts and states.

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2010/files/Ergebnis_E_BPW_2010.xls

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland state elections (May 30) poll by Market for "Standard":

SPÖ: 50% (-2%)
ÖVP: 38% (+2%)
FPÖ: 7% (+1%)
GRE: 5% (nc)
LBL: 0% (new)

Direct vote for Governor:

Hans Niessl (SPÖ): 43%
Franz Steindl (ÖVP): 27%
Manfred Kölly (LBL): 3%
Johann Tschürtz (FPÖ): 2%
Michael Reimon (GRE): 0%
Undecided/None of them: 25%

http://derstandard.at/1271376710811/Niessls-SPOe-koennte-Absolute-knapp-halten

.....

Upper Austria federal elections poll by Market:

SPÖ: 28% (-2%)
ÖVP: 27% (nc)
FPÖ: 22% (+3%)
GRE: 12% (+2%)
BZÖ: 5% (-4%)
OTH: 6% (+1%)

Upper Austria state elections poll by Market:

ÖVP: 46% (-1%)
SPÖ: 25% (nc)
FPÖ: 17% (+2%)
GRE: 11% (+2%)
BZÖ: 1% (-2%)
OTH: 0% (-1%)

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/landespolitik/art383,392279

[Tender Branson]

New Burgenland poll by GMK:

[Tender Branson]

Final 2010 population statistics for Austria have been released today and the Germans are now the biggest group of foreigners in the country for the first time:

The population increased by about 20.000 people in 2009 and out of the 8.375.000 people, 895.000 are now foreigners (11%).

From the 895.000 foreigners, 138.000 are now Germans and 112.000 are Turks.



The biggest population increases are in the suburbs of bigger cities like Vienna, Graz, Linz, Salzburg, Innsbruck and the Rheintal.

Here are 3 maps showing the 2009 population dynamics in each town:

First, total population change per 1000 people:



Second, the natural population change (birth minus deaths) per 1000 people:



Third, the migration change (immigration minus emigration) per 1000 people:

[Tender Branson]

Finally, Austria`s becoming more "leftist" again.

New federal poll by Karmasin Motivforschung for the newspaper "Profil":

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 32%
FPÖ: 18%
Greens: 13%
BZÖ: 2%
Others: 2%

Right: 52% (-8/9% since last year)
Left: 46% (+6/7% since last year)

Direct vote for Chancellor:

Faymann (SPÖ): 23%
Pröll (ÖVP): 23%
Glawischnig (Greens): 6%
Strache (FPÖ): 5%

Should Austria help bail out the Greeks and others ?

48% Yes
42% No

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100520_OTS0018/profil-umfrage-spoe-vor-oevp-proell-und-faymann-gleichauf/channel/politik

[Tender Branson]

New Burgenland poll by GMK:

It´s absolutely clear that the Burgenland is a die-hard red state.

Just look at these additional GMK numbers for direct vote of Governor I´ve just found:

[Hash]

Why is Burgenland so leftist anyways? I don't think being formerly Hungarian and all that entails means much.

[Tender Branson]

Why is Burgenland so leftist anyways? I don't think being formerly Hungarian and all that entails means much.

No, has nothing to do with Hungary, but with a variety of factors:

A) Burgenland is small and in small states, people trust their governor and if he doesn´t f**k things up, he has something like 80% approval ratings. Therefore, the governor = the party.

B) Burgenland has many commuters, and where do they commute to ? To red Vienna. Who is providing the generous commuter benefits, the housing benefits, the border patrols who secure the lowest crime rate in all of Austria ? Of course, its the SPÖ.

C) Burgenland has almost no foreigners (4% or so). Therefore the FPÖ has no scapegoat, like it has in Vienna or Vorarlberg, where 15-25% of the people are foreigners and where the same amount votes for the FPÖ. Therefore many people stay with the SPÖ.

D) The SPÖ in Burgenland, contrary to the Vienna-SPÖ, is right wing. The SPÖ initiated a referendum to oppose the construction of an asylum centre. 95% of the people voted in opposition, just like the SPÖ wanted it.

E) Pork and federal money. Burgenland is poor compared with the west or rest of Austria. Therefore the state SPÖ lobbies for federal and EU money that is generously poured into the state.

Would have to do some other research but I think that are the main points.

[Tender Branson]

Here are the 2005 results and map for Burgenland (SPÖ = 52.2% btw):

[Tender Branson]

New federal Market/Standard poll:

ÖVP: 29%
SPÖ: 27%
FPÖ: 23%
GRE: 12%
BZÖ: 5%
OTH: 4%

Right: 57%
Left: 39%

Vote for Chancellor:

Faymann (SPÖ): 38%
Pröll (ÖVP): 33%
Strache (FPÖ): 14%
Glawischnig (Greens): 11%
Bucher (BZÖ): 4%

http://derstandard.at/1271377234738/Faymann-erstmals-vor-Proell

[Tender Branson]

New federal Gallup/Ö24 poll:

SPÖ: 31%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 20%
GRE: 13%
BZÖ: 2%
OTH: 4%

Right: 52%
Left: 44%

Vote for Chancellor:

Faymann (SPÖ): 38%
Pröll (ÖVP): 37%

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20100522_OTS0001/oesterreich-umfrage-spoe-erstmals-seit-juni-2009-wieder-vor-oevp-auch-faymann-ueberholt-proell/channel/politik

[Tender Branson]

New Burgenland state elections poll by Gallup for Ö24:

SPÖ: 49-51%
ÖVP: 29-31%
FPÖ: 9-11%
Greens: 7-9%
LBL: 1-3%

Direct vote for Governor:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Niessls-Haerte-zahlt-sich-aus---ueber-50-0712780.ece

[Tender Branson]

The Greens have started their campaign for the Vienna elections in October:



The paper Ö24 even wrote that Green frontrunner Maria Vassilakou is too "overstyled" in their posters ...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is gearing up for a populist fall campaign. Watch their new posters:



Text says: "Better: Our money for our people !"

The FPÖ and also the BZÖ want Greece to be thrown out of the Eurozone because of their incompetence and they have also started to sue the Austrian government in the high court to block the already approved 4 Bio. $ for Greece. If the high court rules in favor of the FPÖ, the European help for Greece is blocked because the high courts in any country have the right to block the help.

Btw: The poster was created by the Swiss-German media expert Alexander Segert, who also created the infamous Swiss Anti-Minaret poster.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Burgenland state elections will take place.

The 2005 results were:

SPÖ: 52.2%
ÖVP: 36.4%
FPÖ: 5.8%
Greens: 5.2%
ÖBWP: 0.4%

I predict the following:

SPÖ: 48% (18 seats)
ÖVP: 34% (12 seats)
FPÖ: 10% (4 seats)
Greens: 6% (2 seats)
LBL: 2%

[Tender Branson]

My prediction was almost correct. The real results are (with 165 of 171 towns counted):

SPÖ: 49.6% (19 seats)
ÖVP: 33.9% (13 seats)
FPÖ: 8.9% (3 seats)
LBL: 3.9%
Greens: 3.7% (1 seat)

Turnout: 71% (-10%)

There are many postal votes though that will be counted in the next week (about 10% of the total votes cast, so it will be interesting to see if the SPÖ can hold the narrow absolute majority of 19 out of 36 seats).

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ didn`t do quite as well as predicted (again), and is far away from the Burgenland results of the Haider years (in 1996 they got 15%). The main reasons are likely the Rosenkranz defeat and the LBL, which is headed by former state FPÖ-members. The fact that the FPÖ still gained a couple points from 2005 is because in 2005 the FPÖ split and the BZÖ was created.

The Greens on the other hand ran a poor campaign, they changed their frontrunner late in the campaign and also supported the withdrawal of border troops, yet 90% of the population backs these border troops for increased safety such as stopping illegals from Eastern Europe and car jackers who transport stolen cars to Eastern Europe.

The out-of-mainstream loss of the ÖVP (they gained in almost every other recent state election) can be explained with the population`s hate of Austrian Interior Minister Maria Fekter (ÖVP), who wanted to plant an asylum facility into Southern Burgenland, which was also rejected in a referendum in March by 95% of the voters.

[Tender Branson]

The Greens are now without a seat according to the latest calculations.

SPÖ: 19 seats
ÖVP: 13 seats
FPÖ: 4 seats