The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...
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  The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...
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Question: Who would you vote for in the Austrian Presidential Election ?
#1
Heinz Fischer (Incumbent-SPÖ/IND)
 
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Barbara Rosenkranz (FPÖ)
 
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Other candidate (please post)
 
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Author Topic: The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...  (Read 273004 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #800 on: April 07, 2012, 02:35:43 AM »

There's also a new OGM poll in today's "Kurier" newspaper, which surveyed Austrians about the work of ÖVP-leader Michael Spindelegger and his team of ÖVP ministers after 1 year of work (1 year ago, the previous ÖVP-boss Josef Pröll stepped down because of health problems and Spindelegger changed some ministers):



Spindelegger himself has very low approval ratings, as well as the women in his team (but not because they are women, but because their offices and how they handle it is really bad).

Beatrix Karl, Minister for Justice, has problems because of how some polarizing cases were handled and because of problems within the system (not enough judges, lawyers etc.)

Johanna Mikl-Leitner, Interior Minister, has problems because she's a hardliner on immigration and asylum and because of the new unpopular data storage law.

And Maria Fekter, Minister for Finances, is well ... Maria Fekter. Also a hardliner, excentric and always had low approval ratings.

Only 30% of Austrians approve of the job that Spindelegger has done in the previous year, while 55% disapprove.

The only 2 that have positive ratings are Sebastian Kurz (Secretary of State for Immigration & Integration), who is the youngest member of government in the history of Austria.

The other one is Minister for Science and Universities and former Dean of Innsbruck University, Karl-Heinz Töchterle - a former Green Party member.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #801 on: April 07, 2012, 08:25:42 AM »

New Gallup poll for Ö24:

28% FPÖ
28% SPÖ
22% ÖVP
14% Greens
  4% BZÖ
  4% Others

In a separate election question, Gallup also included the Austrian Pirate Party and a new party by Austrian/Canadian billionnaire Frank Stronach (which does not exist yet).

The news report says that the Pirates would get 7% support and the Stronach-party would get 6%, with the SPÖ/FPÖ and Greens losing the most support.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-SPOe-und-FPOe-auf-Platz-1-OeVP-verliert-weiter/62104088

Frank Stronach has previously said that he "may create a new party based on economic policy". But he already said it a year ago and nothing has happened in the meantime. If he's really serious about it, he'd probably have to create it in the next 6 months, because of the party organisation and because the "silent campaign" for the Oct. 2013 election already starts in the fall.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Stronach

Stronach, who was a member and candidate for the Canadian Liberal Party once (or still is) - is also rumoured to financially back the BZÖ in their 2013 campaign if they adopt some of his policy ideas in their election platform. A few of the BZÖ people are working for his MAGNA company and the BZÖ is a business-oriented and center-right-liberal party, therefore it would fit Stronach's goals. Without Stronach's financial help, the BZÖ is probably D.O.A. next year.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #802 on: April 07, 2012, 08:36:57 AM »

In a separate election question, Gallup also included the Austrian Pirate Party and a new party by Austrian/Canadian billionnaire Frank Stronach (which does not exist yet).

The news report says that the Pirates would get 7% support and the Stronach-party would get 6%, with the SPÖ/FPÖ and Greens losing the most support.

Ahh, my email to the Ö24 editorial department has helped. They have now updated their article to show support for SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens and BZÖ too. The results are:

25%  [-3] FPÖ
25%  [-3] SPÖ
22%  [nc] ÖVP
10%  [-4] Greens
  7% [+7] Pirates
  6% [+6] Stronach-party
  3%  [-1] BZÖ
  2%  [-2] Others

So, the Greens would lose the most to the Pirates and the Stronach-party ?

That's surprising, I thought it would be the FPÖ ...
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #803 on: April 07, 2012, 09:14:21 AM »
« Edited: April 07, 2012, 09:19:22 AM by Swedish Cheese »

The only 2 that have positive ratings are Sebastian Kurz (Secretary of State for Immigration & Integration), who is the youngest member of government in the history of Austria.

He's quite cute I must say. Although he looks like the typicalcocky  upper-class kid you also find in Swedish politics who people find really annoying. What's he like politically?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #804 on: April 07, 2012, 09:38:09 AM »

The only 2 that have positive ratings are Sebastian Kurz (Secretary of State for Immigration & Integration), who is the youngest member of government in the history of Austria.

He's quite cute I must say. Although he looks like the typicalcocky  upper-class kid you also find in Swedish politics who people find really annoying. What's he like politically?

No, from interviews he comes across as likeable actually. I have seen many other ÖVP types from Vienna who seem to be much more arrogant than him.

Politically, he does what a Secretary of State for Integration needs to do. He thinks Imams in Austrian mosques should be trained only in Austria, not for example in Turkey where they are then basically civil servants to the Turkish state, and the imams should also be required to preach in German within the mosques. He also established so called "days of the open mosque", so that Austrians can visit mosques and learn something about Islam. He also established peer-groups of successful students with migrant-background who should give advice to pupils with problems in learning and talk with their parents if they have trouble at home. He also favors harsh penalties for parents if their children repeatedly skive lessons. And because he's also the leader of the Young ÖVP, he recently proposed a change in the tax system, so that Austrians can earmark 10% of their income taxes to areas they want (for example some people choose education, while other choose infrastructure etc.)

In the past year, he actually had a ton of ideas what to do with integration and immigration matters (one newspaper even called him the "Integration-Alchemist") and I can't recall all of them. But because he has had so many ideas, he probably is the most liked politician in Austria right now, after President Heinz Fischer, and this with 25 years of age.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #805 on: April 07, 2012, 09:51:02 AM »

Here's a portrait of him if you understand some German:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsKHsP-BYPY
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MaxQue
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« Reply #806 on: April 07, 2012, 10:57:03 AM »

Doesn't Frank Stronach Canadian, through?

I remember his daughter Belinda, which was a Conservative/Liberal MP and which ran for Conservative leadership.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #807 on: April 07, 2012, 11:01:28 AM »

Doesn't Frank Stronach Canadian, through?

I remember his daughter Belinda, which was a Conservative/Liberal MP and which ran for Conservative leadership.

What's the meaning of your first sentence ?

If Stronach is Canadian ? Don't know really, but I guess he has both the Austrian and the Canadian citizenship, because he was born here and already moved to Canada in the 50s.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #808 on: April 07, 2012, 11:06:55 AM »

I asked, with forgeting some words, if Stronach is Canadian and Austrian, because it would be strange to run in Austrian elections if you lived abroad for 60 years.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #809 on: April 07, 2012, 11:15:24 AM »

I asked, with forgeting some words, if Stronach is Canadian and Austrian, because it would be strange to run in Austrian elections if you lived abroad for 60 years.

I think he lives part-time in Canada and part-time in Austria these days. He comes accross in the media here once in a while. But it's not that he himself has to run "his" party. I've read somewhere that he eyes a former ÖVP politician as a front-runner of his party. Stronach would then only be the big financer of this party and give interviews to the newspapers and TV stations once in a while, without actually being elected to the Parliament.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #810 on: April 07, 2012, 04:09:55 PM »


Seems like my sort of politician. I'm guessing he's a quite likly ÖVP leader sometime in the future.

Anyway, besides the fact the President has said he'd never appoint such an government, what's the liklyhood of an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition after the next election?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #811 on: April 08, 2012, 12:16:22 AM »


Seems like my sort of politician. I'm guessing he's a quite likly ÖVP leader sometime in the future.

Anyway, besides the fact the President has said he'd never appoint such an government, what's the liklyhood of an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition after the next election?

Spindelegger doesn't want to rule out a FPÖ-ÖVP coalition categorically, contrary to Faymann. He keeps his options open, maybe because he knows that there's a possibility that SPÖVP could not have its own majority next year. And if the ÖVP really ends up at 20% next year due to all the corruption cases in the Schüssel-era that are now dealt with, he could try to be the Junior partner of a strong FPÖ. But many factors are unknows as of now: What will Fischer do if the FPÖ really gets 25-30% and the ÖVP wants to join them in a coalition ? Will other parties such as the Pirates or a Stronach-party cross the 4% threshold ? If Stronach does not support the BZÖ financially, will it fail to get beyond 4% ? Will powerful Lower Austria governor Erwin Pröll win the state election in March next year, then step down as Governor and run as the frontrunner for the ÖVP in the federal election ? And so on ...

As for Kurz: Yeah, he's only 25 years. So he has at least 40 years left to become an ÖVP-leader later on.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #812 on: April 08, 2012, 01:03:50 AM »

As part of their Styria poll, OGM has also polled the Graz Municipial Election of January 2013:









http://www.kleinezeitung.at/steiermark/graz/graz/2990598/absturz-grazer-spoe-platz-drei.story

...

Hmm, this is the 1st time that the Graz-FPÖ is ahead of the Graz-SPÖ !

In recent years, the Graz-SPÖ has become some sort of joke party with big internal problems and leadership changes. Just recently they changed their leader once again to a woman called Martina Schröck, who is not only seen as unpopular but also gets just 1% (!!!) in a direct vote for Mayor.

Also notice that the KPÖ is still strong after the departure of Ernest Kaltenegger, who helped the Communists to record results in Graz. Elke Kahr seems to continue his good work.

Also notice that 9% of voters would vote for "other parties". Which probably means the BZÖ and Pirates. I guess the SPÖ loses a lot of support to the KPÖ and Pirates next year.

Some of the internals are really brutal for the SPÖ:

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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #813 on: April 08, 2012, 06:09:37 PM »

If SPÖVP fail to reach a majority, is a SPÖVP + Greens coalition a possibility?
 
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #814 on: April 08, 2012, 07:43:09 PM »


Seems like my sort of politician. I'm guessing he's a quite likly ÖVP leader sometime in the future.

Anyway, besides the fact the President has said he'd never appoint such an government, what's the liklyhood of an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition after the next election?

What if (hypothetically) the FPÖ won a majority of seats in the federal parliament.  Could the President refuse to appoint that government?  What role (beyond ceremonial) does the president have over such things?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #815 on: April 09, 2012, 12:52:24 AM »

If SPÖVP fail to reach a majority, is a SPÖVP + Greens coalition a possibility?

Yes, but I don't know if the ÖVP would be more likely to join a FPÖ-led coalition or a SPÖ-ÖVP-Green coalition. Austrian politicians never say which coalitions they prefer ahead of an election. But Spindelegger could opt for FPÖ-ÖVP, because the ÖVP would get more ministers in this coalition than they would get in a SPÖ-ÖVP-Green one.


Seems like my sort of politician. I'm guessing he's a quite likly ÖVP leader sometime in the future.

Anyway, besides the fact the President has said he'd never appoint such an government, what's the liklyhood of an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition after the next election?

What if (hypothetically) the FPÖ won a majority of seats in the federal parliament.  Could the President refuse to appoint that government?  What role (beyond ceremonial) does the president have over such things?

I think he has to swear this government in then, if the FPÖ gets 50%+

I found this explanation:

Quote
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It says that "if a parliamentary election results in an absolute majority for the winning party, the election is like a direct Chancellor election and then the Chancellor candidate is in the same position like the President and therefore the swearing-in of the Chancellor candidate by the President becomes de-facto binding."

Even though another source says this:

Quote
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This source says that Fischer could refuse to appoint Strache as Chancellor even if the FPÖ gets more than 50% of the vote. A FPÖ-majority in parliament could then block every law by a SPÖVP minority government by a no-confidence vote, which would lead to a failure of this SPÖVP minority government. If the SPÖVP minority government crashes, Fischer would either have to swear in Strache as Chancellor like Klestil had to do with the FPÖ/ÖVP coalition after the '99 elections or Fischer would need to step down as President.

...

As you can see, the Austrian Constitutional Law from 1929 is very outdated when it comes to these scenarios and probably should be amended to have clear rules what to do in these situations. But the politicians back then probably thought that no party other than Socialists or Christian Democrats would ever head a government in the future ... Tongue
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #816 on: April 09, 2012, 03:51:34 AM »

Austrian politicians never say which coalitions they prefer ahead of an election.


Do they really need to though, it's always SPÖVP. You guys seem to like your grand coalitions more than even Sweden loves Social Democrats. Tongue
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #817 on: April 09, 2012, 04:18:05 AM »

Austrian politicians never say which coalitions they prefer ahead of an election.


Do they really need to though, it's always SPÖVP. You guys seem to like your grand coalitions more than even Sweden loves Social Democrats. Tongue

Considering that the only alternative is coalition with a far-right party, I'm perfectly fine with grand coalitions. Tongue
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #818 on: April 09, 2012, 04:23:52 AM »

My German high school started at 7:45 am.
7:30. (Sieben Uhr Dreißig - darauf scheiß ich!) With 5th (and maybe 6th as well?) formers starting school with the 2nd period.
It was some special deal due originally to Deutsche Bahn timetables and the fact that it was the most easily reached Gymnasium for residents of Maintal... though by my time, very few people in Maintal sent their kids to Frankfurt from 5th grade on, instead attending the local Gesamtschule and transferring in 11th, so by then it was really just a case of inertia/tradition.
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Iannis
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« Reply #819 on: April 11, 2012, 04:05:00 AM »

If SPÖVP fail to reach a majority, is a SPÖVP + Greens coalition a possibility?

Yes, but I don't know if the ÖVP would be more likely to join a FPÖ-led coalition or a SPÖ-ÖVP-Green coalition. Austrian politicians never say which coalitions they prefer ahead of an election. But Spindelegger could opt for FPÖ-ÖVP, because the ÖVP would get more ministers in this coalition than they would get in a SPÖ-ÖVP-Green one.


Seems like my sort of politician. I'm guessing he's a quite likly ÖVP leader sometime in the future.

Anyway, besides the fact the President has said he'd never appoint such an government, what's the liklyhood of an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition after the next election?

What if (hypothetically) the FPÖ won a majority of seats in the federal parliament.  Could the President refuse to appoint that government?  What role (beyond ceremonial) does the president have over such things?

I think he has to swear this government in then, if the FPÖ gets 50%+

I found this explanation:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

It says that "if a parliamentary election results in an absolute majority for the winning party, the election is like a direct Chancellor election and then the Chancellor candidate is in the same position like the President and therefore the swearing-in of the Chancellor candidate by the President becomes de-facto binding."

Even though another source says this:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

This source says that Fischer could refuse to appoint Strache as Chancellor even if the FPÖ gets more than 50% of the vote. A FPÖ-majority in parliament could then block every law by a SPÖVP minority government by a no-confidence vote, which would lead to a failure of this SPÖVP minority government. If the SPÖVP minority government crashes, Fischer would either have to swear in Strache as Chancellor like Klestil had to do with the FPÖ/ÖVP coalition after the '99 elections or Fischer would need to step down as President.

...

As you can see, the Austrian Constitutional Law from 1929 is very outdated when it comes to these scenarios and probably should be amended to have clear rules what to do in these situations. But the politicians back then probably thought that no party other than Socialists or Christian Democrats would ever head a government in the future ... Tongue

I hope Fischer would not be so anti-democratic. If FPO gets a majority, FPO leads the government. Period.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #820 on: April 14, 2012, 12:35:32 AM »

Tomorrow, the only moderately important 2012 Austrian election will take place in Innsbruck.

A new city council and mayor will be elected. 96.861 people aged 16 and over who are also EU-citizens will be eligible to vote. The mayoral election is a direct vote, so every voter gets 2 ballots. The polls are open from 7am to 6pm and first results can be expected at about 7.30pm

The 2006 results were:

27% FI (Liste Für Innsbruck, center-right, split from the ÖVP in the 90s, have the current mayor)
20% SPÖ (Social Democrats, center-left)
19% Greens (left/green politics, Greens are very strong because Innsbruck is a student city)
15% ÖVP (center-right, could get a polling boost because they changed their frontrunner)
  9% LRF (Liste Rudi Federspiel, right-wing/populist, headed by a former ÖVP/FPÖ politician)
  5% FPÖ (far-right/populist, created a controversy with "Moroccan thieves" posters)
  3% TSB (Tyrolean Seniors League, center right, mainly made up of ÖVP people)
  3% Others

Turnout was about 60% in 2006.

This year, the Communists and Pirates will also take part in the election. They are both polling between 1 and 3%.

Here are the historical results in Innsbruck:

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergebnisse_der_Kommunalwahlen_in_Innsbruck#Gemeinderatswahlen
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #821 on: April 14, 2012, 12:50:10 AM »

My prediction for tomorrow:

22% FI
20% Greens
20% ÖVP
16% SPÖ
  8% LRF
  8% FPÖ
  3% TSB
  2% Pirates
  1% KPÖ

Mayor Christine Oppitz-Plörer (FI) and Christoph Platzgummer (ÖVP) are heading for a mayoral run-off.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #822 on: April 14, 2012, 01:04:51 AM »

The polls are open from 7am to 6pm and first results can be expected at about 7.30pm

Slight correction:

The polls are actually open from 8am to 5pm tomorrow says the Innsbruck election homepage and results are expected after 6pm.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #823 on: April 15, 2012, 03:45:19 AM »

Innsbruck results can be found here after 6pm local time (final results are expected at 8pm):

http://wahlen.innsbruck.gv.at
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #824 on: April 15, 2012, 03:50:12 AM »

And here:

http://www.tt.com/dossier/thema.csp?s=Wahl_2012

And here:

http://tirol.orf.at/studio/stories/2528915
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