The 2012 Austrian Election Interlude: The rise of Frank Stronach and more ...

[minionofmidas]

Strache is a neonazi prole. Rosenkranz is a middleclass paleonazi. Guess who has more appeal with Conservatives.

[minionofmidas]

Heh.

[minionofmidas]

I would guess the Gehring map to be marginally the most interesting. And turnout o/c.

[minionofmidas]

Greens 75.7
SPÖ 62.4
Liste Burgenland 38.0
ÖVP 37.4
FPÖ 36.6

[minionofmidas]

Lol, what's happened to the BZÖ? I can has Carinthia subsample?

[minionofmidas]

Lol, what's happened to the BZÖ? I can has Carinthia subsample?

I think you know what happened ...

I guess they won´t even get 10% anymore in Carinthia.

Didn't they win that state election big without Haider? Have they been governing dreadfully and infighting nonstop ever since, or what?

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No, I can't. That was why I was wondering. They might have largely gone FPÖ and then dispersed to the majors at the same pace as the FPÖ voters... or they might be going back to Carinthia's SPÖ roots at a higher-than-average clip... or given how the state has grown and filled with right voting skibunny airheads of either gender since the times when its Socialism made perfect sense (which ended before the Socialist voting ended, really...) they might also be going to the ÖVP at a higher-than-average clip.

So yeah. We really need a Carinthia poll.

[minionofmidas]

I´m really interested now to find out how many people are stuffed by labor agencies into training courses in Germany. People who are in these labor agency courses basically write job application letters for a couple of hours each week and for that they get some money from the labor agencies. So they are nothing more than unemployed. Let´s see if I can find numbers for Germany, because I´m sure they are not showing up in the official unemployment numbers - just like here ...

No, they do. And they don't get anything extra for it. But can get their dole docked if they refuse.

[minionofmidas]

Writing on the German-language website Kath.net, Laun warns against judging the dead and saying their death was God's punishment.

At the same time, he indirectly links the deaths to God's right to punish apostates — those who turn their back on the true faith.

Oddly fitting that this post was also about the late Jörg Haider...

[minionofmidas]

I dunno, "Viennese blood" sounds like just another word for "mixed race Balkanese" to me.

[minionofmidas]

Greens 74
Commies 73
SPÖ 62
FPÖ 50
BZÖ 49
CPÖ 42
ÖVP 38

[minionofmidas]

Ah, so the definition of mosque is different in Austria. Here, the praying rooms are also called mosques.

Yeah, I find the distinction here quite bewildering. Surely many of these "praying rooms" are mosques in all respects. Must be something to do with tax status.

[minionofmidas]

Ah, Austria. The country where the leading tabloid does not run naked women on about a dozen Christian holidays per year.

 ...

[minionofmidas]

Did you "get" the image?

These are not siamese twin butterflies. These butterflies are fucking.

[minionofmidas]

KPO is a "reformed" communist party or an old style one?

Seems to be still as it was in the 70s and 80s, or more so than just about any other western european Communist party anyways - but it would have been very much a "reformed" Communist party then. (It's also quite fringe everywhere except parts of Styria.)

[minionofmidas]

Graz should be interesting.

In southern Styria, the SPÖ and the ÖVP lost about equally compared with 2005, while in northern Styria, the SPÖ did much worse than the ÖVP.

Isn't it usually hard-left (north) west versus Conservative east (denser population and thus not as far from the average)?
I know you're talking about swing here, not strength, but a north-south split still sounds odd.

[minionofmidas]

'kay, that's what happens when you do this purely by memory. The hard-left areas are further east than I would have placed them.

But there really is an odd north-south divide to swings in the ÖVP east.

[minionofmidas]

Not enough Hirn?

[minionofmidas]

Where does the FPÖ do well again in Vienna?

Same as the SPÖ. The degree of correlation is actually hilarious.

[minionofmidas]

We have a final result now (excl. about 160.000 postal votes):

44.13%     (-4.96%)  SPÖ
27.06%  (+12.23%)  FPÖ
13.23%     (-5.54%)  ÖVP
12.23%     (-2.40%)  Greens
  1.40%    (+0.25%)  BZÖ
  1.15%     (-0.32%)  KPÖ
  0.68%    (+0.68%)  LIF
  0.06%    (+0.06%)  MUT
  0.05%    (+0.05%)  DEM
  0.01%     (-0.01%)  SLP

Turnout: 56.55% (is expected to increase to about 67-68% with postal votes, +6/7%)

Seats:

48     (-7)  SPÖ
29  (+16)  FPÖ
13     (-5)  ÖVP
10     (-4)  Greens

What's the system used here; that's not a strictly proportional distribution.

[minionofmidas]

That doesn't explain anything and is in fact flat-out contradicted by the result, unless almost all seats are Grundmandate. (A D'Hondt distribution would be 46-28-14-12... and it's quite close between the 14th ÖVP, 13th Green, and 47th SPÖ mandate. The 13th ÖVP seat has a considerably lower priority than an 11th Green seat, so we'd have to assume that the Greens are the only party to get seats in the second distribution.)

[minionofmidas]

Thanks!

[minionofmidas]

Here is the constituency map



Seems the two multi-borough constituencies are named "Zentrum" and "Innen-West", btw.

This results page has the seats numbers.

[minionofmidas]

the number of seats distributed in the first round was SPÖ 42, FPÖ 23, ÖVP 7, Greens 2, with 26 seats left over for the second distribution.

[minionofmidas]

Yes; missing out by ridiculous margins in Leopoldstadt, Landstraße, perhaps elsewhere (I sort of stopped bothering comparing seats with vote percentages eventually.)

Of course the cutest results come from Hernals and Währing, where only one out of three available seats was distributed in the first go.

[minionofmidas]

Now a seat has moved from the FPÖ to the SPÖ ...

What is going on there, why are they still counting ballots ?

I remember 2 hours ago, the FPÖ was over 170.000 votes, now they have less ?

Weird.

Correction of an error in the precinct results, presumably.