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Author Topic: Redcommander's 2010 Election Senate Results Timeline  (Read 29028 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #50 on: January 04, 2010, 08:04:57 pm »

I would love to see Boxer go down in flames but it's not going to happen.

Much of this timeline is highly improbably, but I give it points for creativity.
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« Reply #51 on: January 04, 2010, 08:09:16 pm »

lol lol lol lol lol
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« Reply #52 on: January 04, 2010, 08:25:27 pm »

12:49

Republicans Win back Control of the United States Senate
Lingle Wins Senate Seat in Hawaii


Kirsten Powers

In what could be the most devastating loss for the Democrats, Fox News can now project Governor Linda Lingle the winner of the senate seat of retiring Senator Daniel Inouye. Inouye originally stated his intentions to run for reelection, but citing family concerns, retired earlier this year. Lingle leads her democrat opponent 56-38 with 52% of the vote in. This loss in the President's home state gives control of the United States Senate to the Republican Party in their biggest net gain of seats since the Reagan landslide of 1980. The Senate will now be composed of 47 Democrats, 51 Republicans, and 2 Independents. It may become necessary however for a tie breaking vote by Vice President Biden on certain bills if deadlock occurs.

Here are our the Voting Results at our coverage conclusion.

Indiana Evan Bayh 57% Republican Opponent 40%
Kentucky Rand Paul 55% Daniel Mongiardo 43%
South Carolina Jim DeMint 61% Democrat Opponent 37%
Vermont Patrick Leahy 68% Republican Opponent 29%
Georgia Johnny Isakson 56% Democrat Opponent 42%
North Carolina Cal Cunningham 49% Richard Burr 47%
Ohio Rob Portman 53% Lee Fisher 45%
Alabama Richard Shelby 66% Democrat Opponent 31%
Delaware Mike Castle 58% Beau Biden 39%
Missouri Robin Carnahan 52% Roy Blunt 47%
Connecticut Peter Schiff 59% Chris Dodd 37%
Maryland Barbara Mikulski 62% Republican Opponent 36%
Florida Marco Rubio 55% Kendrick Meek 38%
New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte 54% Paul Hodes 44%
Oklahoma Tom Coburn 59% Democrat Opponent 36%
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey 52% Spector 43%
Illinois Mark Kirk 51% Alexi Giannoulias 46%
Arkansas Gilbert Baker 56% Blanche Lincoln 41%
Arizona John McCain 69% Democrat Opponent 27%
Kansas Todd Tiahrt 65% Democrat Opponent 32%
South Dakota John Thune 57% Democrat Opponent 39%
Louisiana Jay Dardenne 54% Charles Melancon 43%
New York A Chuck Schumer 67% Republican Opponent 35%
New York B Liz Feld 51% Kirsten Gillibrand 43%
Winsconsin Russ Feingold 52% Terrence Hall 46%
Colorado Jane Norton 57% Michael Bennett 40%
Idaho Mike Crapo 87% Democrat Opponent 11%
Iowa Chuck Grassley 61% Democrat Opponent 36%
North Dakota John Hoeven 60% Bryan Dorgan 38%
Oregon Ron Wyden 63% Republican Opponent 34%
Alaska Lisa Murkowski 54% Democrat Opponent 42%
Utah Bob Bennett 73% Democrat Opponent 30%
Washington Sue Rahr 53% Patty Murray 45%
Nevada Danny Tarkanian 56% Harry Reid 38%
California Steve Poizner 51% Barbara Boxer 44%
Hawaii Linda Lingle 57% Democrat Opponent 37%





Brett Baer
From Fox News, I'm Brett Baer.

Kirsten Powers
And I 'm Kirsten Powers and we wish you all a Good Night. Continuing coverage and analysis will be continued by Studio B.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2010, 08:32:13 pm by redcommander »Logged
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« Reply #53 on: January 04, 2010, 08:28:08 pm »

Now that we are done with this ridiculous and entirely pointless thread, what comes next?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #54 on: January 04, 2010, 08:38:18 pm »

Now that we are done with this ridiculous and entirely pointless thread, what comes next?

I know what comes next. Democratic landside in 2016. Dems pickup 13 seats. lol
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"A majority held in restraint by constitutional checks and limitations, and always changing easily with deliberate changes of popular opinions and sentiments, is the only true sovereign of a free people." - Lincoln's First Inaugural Address, emphasis mine.
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« Reply #55 on: January 04, 2010, 08:45:55 pm »

Now that we are done with this ridiculous and entirely pointless thread, what comes next?

I know what comes next. Democratic landside in 2016. Dems pickup 13 seats. lol

It all comes down to candidate recruitment. The only thing ridiculous about this thread is that I gave North Carolina to the Democrat who I think is the most electable running. Also I threw in a few retirements and candidates that probably won't happen or run.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #56 on: January 04, 2010, 08:47:40 pm »

Now that we are done with this ridiculous and entirely pointless thread, what comes next?

I know what comes next. Democratic landside in 2016. Dems pickup 13 seats. lol

It all comes down to candidate recruitment. The only thing ridiculous about this thread is that I gave North Carolina to the Democrat who I think is the most electable running. Also I threw in a few retirements and candidates that probably won't happen or run.

Look up 1986. This map is even right now. If a landslide GOP victory occurs it will mean the Dems have fewer seats and thus a good map in 2016 to make big gains off of.
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Senator for the Southern Region


"A majority held in restraint by constitutional checks and limitations, and always changing easily with deliberate changes of popular opinions and sentiments, is the only true sovereign of a free people." - Lincoln's First Inaugural Address, emphasis mine.
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« Reply #57 on: January 04, 2010, 08:50:41 pm »

The map is similar. A 2010 result like that would definitely set up a highly favorable map for democrat gains in 2016. That's part of the reason I set up Democrat pickups in Missouri and North Carolina. Burr will probably win reelection, but those two pickups would give the GOP two places to run offensive in 2016 against defensive in the rest of the country in my scenario.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2010, 08:52:32 pm by redcommander »Logged
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« Reply #58 on: January 04, 2010, 09:04:33 pm »

Now that we are done with this ridiculous and entirely pointless thread, what comes next?

I know what comes next. Democratic landside in 2016. Dems pickup 13 seats. lol

It all comes down to candidate recruitment. The only thing ridiculous about this thread is that I gave North Carolina to the Democrat who I think is the most electable running. Also I threw in a few retirements and candidates that probably won't happen or run.

THAT's the "only" ridiculous thing about this Republican masturbatory fantasy?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #59 on: January 04, 2010, 09:05:27 pm »

The map is similar. A 2010 result like that would definitely set up a highly favorable map for democrat gains in 2016. That's part of the reason I set up Democrat pickups in Missouri and North Carolina. Burr will probably win reelection, but those two pickups would give the GOP two places to run offensive in 2016 against defensive in the rest of the country in my scenario.

Then it was a pretty good idea.

To be honest I would be happy if we got 45 seats in 2010 and be content with that. If Obama flounders we can reap the benefits of having a very favorable 2012 map. For instance why waist Hoeven in 2010 when he can take out Conrad in 2012 who is contacted to one of Dodd's scandles. There is Nebraska, and Rehberg can knock out Tester. Thats 48. Sam Graves, Jo Ann Emerson, Todd Akin or Jim Talent can challange McCaskil. Polling recently dones shows that despite Macaca, George Allen has positive approvals and leads Jim Webb. There are other candidates as well such as Governor Bob McDonnell if he is popular and Eric Cantor. Bill Nelson could retire in 2012 and the GOP bench in FL is teeming with good candidates. Thats 51 and not considering possibilities for retirement of Dems like Bob Casey, Debbie Stabenow, Herb Kolh, etc etc.
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« Reply #60 on: January 04, 2010, 10:25:45 pm »

WTF?
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« Reply #61 on: January 05, 2010, 07:52:49 pm »

11:50

Murray defeated in Washington
In what has been a close race tonight for Patty Murray, Fox News can now estimate that she has been defeated by King County Sheriff Sue Rahr. This is the tenth pickup for Republicans tonight. Rahr is leading with 51% of the vote in, 50-47. Currently the Senate composition is 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, and 2 Independents. Now if Republicans can pick up the Senate seat in California, where results have indicated the race as too close to call at the moment, and the open seat in Hawaii, then they will have regained control of the United States Senate narrowly. However they would still run into problems with control if a tied vote were to occur as the 2 independents caucus with the democrats.

lol this is so preposterous it has to be either a joke or a hallucination.
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« Reply #62 on: January 05, 2010, 10:44:15 pm »

You're telling me Sue Rahr wouldn't be able to make a competitive race against Murray? Washington isn't as democratic as say California or New York, a Republican could win there statewide if they build enough support in King and Pierce Counties.
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« Reply #63 on: January 05, 2010, 10:48:11 pm »

You're telling me Sue Rahr wouldn't be able to make a competitive race against Murray? Washington isn't as democratic as say California or New York, a Republican could win there statewide if they build enough support in King and Pierce Counties.

Washington's probably more Democratic than either California or New York. At any rate, Murray's entirely entrenched.
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« Reply #64 on: January 05, 2010, 10:56:03 pm »

Who the fock is Sue Rahr?
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« Reply #65 on: January 05, 2010, 10:57:04 pm »

Who the fock is Sue Rahr?

Sheriff of King County. Why she would win a statewide election is beyond me.
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« Reply #66 on: January 05, 2010, 11:26:25 pm »

Sh has the fundraising, political support, and a successful record in public office that could win statewide.
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« Reply #67 on: January 06, 2010, 03:03:53 am »

You're telling me Sue Rahr wouldn't be able to make a competitive race against Murray? Washington isn't as democratic as say California or New York, a Republican could win there statewide if they build enough support in King and Pierce Counties.

Yes, I am telling you that Sue Rahr would not be able to make a competitive race against Murray.  Any reasonable WA political commentator would laugh at such a notion.  The only offices that Republicans win county-wide in King County are Sheriff and Prosecutor.  They lose badly when they run for other offices.  I would point to the King County Executive race, held in an off-off election cycle, where Dow Constantine defeated Susan Hutchison 59-41.  The office of Sheriff and U.S. Senator are not even remotely similar.  A sheriff does not have to take positions on controversial social issues like abortion.  They do not have to explain complex federal legislation to constituents.

Murray has a massive name recognition advantage outside of King County and King County itself is extremely partisan toward Democrats, especially in U.S. Senate races. 

In 1992, Murray ran against Rep. Rod Chandler, a 5-term GOP congressman whose district included part of King County.  She defeated him 54%-46%.

In 1998, she ran against Rep. Linda Smith, a 2-term GOP congresswoman from SW Washington.  Murray defeated her 58%-42% and won 6 counties east of the Cascades (Rahr has no base in Eastern Washington either).

In 2004, she ran against Rep. George Nethercutt, a 5-term GOP congressman from Spokane.  She defeated him 55%-43%.

A poll from Feb. 2009 showed her defeating Attorney General Rob McKenna 55%-39% and Rep. Dave Reichert 53%-40%.  Both men have declined to run against Murray.

Do you really think Rahr is a more formidable candidate than any of these individuals?  If so, why?  Can you name a major non-partisan analyst who thinks Murray is vulnerable?  Why would Sheriff Rahr want to run against Murray when Murray got $1 million dollars for gang and youth violence prevention in King County?

Quote
Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Today, U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA) announced that she has included $1 million for important youth violence prevention efforts in Seattle and King County.  The Senate Commerce, Justice and Science Appropriations bill contains $300,000 for the Seattle Youth Violence Prevention Initiative (SYVPI), $300,000 for the King County Sheriff’s Office School Resource Officers Program (SRO), and $400,000 for the King County Sheriff’s Office Gang Intervention Initiative.

    "This funding will help teenagers in Seattle and King County find the connections they need to succeed in school and in life and keep them out of violent gangs and the criminal justice system." said Senator Murray. "It will help keep our schools and our streets safe."

Gangs pose a growing threat in Seattle and King County and both have experienced rising gang activity over the past year.  The 2009 National Gang Threat Assessment indicates increased gang activity in the Pacific Northwest and reports that in some communities gangs are responsible for as much as eighty percent of all violent crime.

These programs are proven responses to violence and gang activity that threaten public safety and our children’s future.  The SYVPI targets communities in the southeast, southwest, and central areas of Seattle with higher concentrations of youth violence than other areas of the City and brings together a coalition of law enforcement, mentors, churches, schools, social services providers and community leaders to provide prevention services for at-risk youth.  The SYVPI will enhance safety for these families and increase the likelihood that their youth will finish school, engage in positive activities, and become contributing members of their communities.

“The time has come for the city and our community to fundamentally change our overall strategy on preventing youth violence,” said Mayor Greg Nickels.  “I am asking neighbors, families, schools, churches, service workers and community members to come together and join our efforts.”

The King County Sheriff’s Office School Resource Officers Program places full-time deputies in schools and serves over 23,000 K-12 students in King County.  School Resource Officers help develop safety and security policies and are often able to stop arguments before they erupt into violence in our schools and on our streets.  This funding would enable this ongoing program to meet the growing security needs in King County schools and the expectations of parents and students regarding school safety.

“Demand for the SRO program has grown annually for the past 10 years,” said King County Sheriff Sue Rahr.” It is an exceptional community-based program that builds critical and life-long relationships between cops and our kids. Especially in tough economic times, our school administrators, teachers and our kids need the cops in the hallways as mentors, leaders, and protectors.”

The King County Sheriff’s Office Gang Intervention Initiative includes a new comprehensive Gang Intervention and Juvenile Detention Diversion Program.  The Gang Intervention Initiative is intended to prevent juvenile gang activity through intervention, mentoring, education, and enforcement.  Through a collaborative approach, this program will leverage and coordinate the expertise and resources of the King County Sheriff’s Office, county government, the courts, non-profit organizations, and the community to address the challenges of gangs and juvenile delinquency in a proactive and comprehensive manner.

“We have learned that simply focusing on the enforcement aspect of a problem is not enough,” said King County Sheriff Sue Rahr.  “We have to approach the resurging gang and youth violence problem with a comprehensive strategy that touches the lives of vulnerable children and families before they are recruited into the ranks. We have to work with our courts and provide on-the-street alternatives for kids to juvenile detention. We have to commit to be there for them from the time they leave the front door to the time they return to the front door—wherever home is.  And we have to actively engage the entire community to make it all work.”

The funding was included in the fiscal year 2010 Senate Commerce, Justice, and Science Appropriations Bill, which passed in the Subcommittee today and will now move to the full Appropriations Committee. Senator Murray is a senior member of the Appropriations Committee.
http://murray.senate.gov/news.cfm?id=315022
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« Reply #68 on: January 07, 2010, 02:31:00 am »

Republicans in Washington have given up on Murray.  She'll be in the seat until she retires or dies and she won't retire in Dorgan-fashion.  Ogre Mage is completely right - I had hopes in 2004 that Nethercutt could beat her, as he took on Foley earlier and beat him, but eastern Washington republican support can't defeat western Washington.  I learned that early on and learned to trust my friend from Washington (also a republican) on these issues.  Plus, if Rossi couldn't defeat Gregoire in a great republican year (04) - it aint happening, except for when McKenna runs against Cantwell in 2012 and defeats her (should he want it). 

Washington is like Indiana, its a traditionally democratic state deep to its core, only moving in gigantic waves (like Obamas) and only tenable to a republican candidate from the west coast somewhat in line with the radical enviro movement.  It's not a democratic state like California, or Oregon, or Maine where republicans can fare pretty well still (if they try).
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« Reply #69 on: January 07, 2010, 02:38:44 am »

I'm literally laughing out loud at the Washington nonsense going on in this thread.
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« Reply #70 on: January 07, 2010, 02:43:48 am »

I'm literally laughing out loud at the Washington nonsense going on in this thread.

It's almost as ridiculous as the California nonsense, except, because of some Rasmussen poll numbers that mean little showing Boxer under 50%, the CA nonsense has gone mainstream to the point where a deeply flawed candidate (Carlyfornia) and a far-rightwing uncompromising [but honest] nutjob (Devore) are considered credible against a candidate like Boxer, who, while not beloved, possesses the resources to fully capitalize on her opponents' flaws and thus win in a state that's as rightfully Democratic as Kansas is Republican.  

I don't like to deal with electoral issues so racially, but frankly, unless someone can at leas theorize how the GOP is going to recapture the minority vote, they will have a hard time winning federal races in CA until they can at least articulate it.  Putting it into practice is another thing, of course, but in order for the GOP to escape from ImaginationLand on the West Coast, they need to at least go through the motions of trying to win.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2010, 02:48:50 am by Lunar »Logged

this is real
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« Reply #71 on: January 07, 2010, 10:49:31 am »

I'm literally laughing out loud at the Washington nonsense going on in this thread.

Not to give this fantasy thread any pantea of credibility, but I never realized Murray's electoral history has been so weak. She's broke 55% only once, and never 60%. I realize Washington's vote tends to be more polarized, but in a wave election......?
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« Reply #72 on: January 07, 2010, 12:02:56 pm »

I'm literally laughing out loud at the Washington nonsense going on in this thread.

Not to give this fantasy thread any pantea of credibility, but I never realized Murray's electoral history has been so weak. She's broke 55% only once, and never 60%. I realize Washington's vote tends to be more polarized, but in a wave election......?

Which wave election has she been a candidate in? I don't see one.
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« Reply #73 on: January 07, 2010, 01:30:45 pm »

Since getting elected in 1986 with less than 51% of the popular vote against a second/third tier GOP challenger-  Harry Reid-NV won re-election in 1992.  with 51% of the popular vote against a second/ third tier GOP challenger. narrowly won re-election in 1998 against John Ensign by a squeeker margin.  In 2004- Won Re-election by a landslide.  In 2010- Reid is expected to face a tough re-election campaign- but will survive due to weaknesses of his GOP challenger.
Since getting elected in 1992.
Republicans considered Boxer(CA),Murray(WA) and Feingold(WI) vulnerable in 1998. but Boxer(CA) defeated Matt Fong by a 53-43 percent margin. Murray(WA) defeated Linda Smith(WA) by a 58-42 percent margin. Feingoln(WI) narrowly won a close race due to his refusal to recieve soft money help from the DSCC.  In 2004- Republicans gave Feingold a free pass- He won re-election by a 56-44 percent margin against Tim Michaels.  Boxer(CA) defeated Bill Jones by a 58-38 percent margin. Murray(WA) defeated George Nethercutt-(WA) by a 55-43 percent margin.
CA,WA,and WI are more blue than it was in 2004. Republicans don't have a credible challengers against Boxer(CA),Murray(WA),and Feingold(WI).
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« Reply #74 on: January 07, 2010, 04:03:09 pm »

I'm literally laughing out loud at the Washington nonsense going on in this thread.

It's almost as ridiculous as the California nonsense, except, because of some Rasmussen poll numbers that mean little showing Boxer under 50%, the CA nonsense has gone mainstream to the point where a deeply flawed candidate (Carlyfornia) and a far-rightwing uncompromising [but honest] nutjob (Devore) are considered credible against a candidate like Boxer, who, while not beloved, possesses the resources to fully capitalize on her opponents' flaws and thus win in a state that's as rightfully Democratic as Kansas is Republican.  

I don't like to deal with electoral issues so racially, but frankly, unless someone can at leas theorize how the GOP is going to recapture the minority vote, they will have a hard time winning federal races in CA until they can at least articulate it.  Putting it into practice is another thing, of course, but in order for the GOP to escape from ImaginationLand on the West Coast, they need to at least go through the motions of trying to win.

hee hee.  That is quite an accurate description of the state of both the CA and WA GOP.

For the record, I almost would like to see Carlyfornia run against Boxer, because it would be a high-profile contest with good entertainment value, probably ending with Carlyfornia's vehicle going dramatically over the cliff in Thelma & Louise like fashion.  Carlyfornia's biography is so open to attack (especially in this economy) that the partisan in me would like to see the attacks that Boxer (an experienced street fighter) would cook up.  I'm not familiar with Devore, but that would probably be a quieter race.  It seems Boxer has beaten those types before without much difficulty.

I'll try to respond to Badger's post later.
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