CARLHAYDEN
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Posts: 10,638
Political Matrix E: 1.38, S: -0.51
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« on: January 03, 2010, 03:57:44 AM » |
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Recently there have been a spate of attacks on the results of Rasmussen surveys from the left, who don't like the results.
Well, lets take a look at the numbers for Obama Job Approval in November, using the most recent (December) results from 19 survey research outfits.
The highest number was from AP of 56, and the lowest from Harris of 41.
If we break the polls down into the three categories of "Adult," "Registered Voters," and "Likely Voters," the results look a little different.
Type of Poll Highest Lowest Mean Median
Adult 56 % 41 % 46 % 50 % Registered 50 46 48 48 Likely 50 47 48 48
So, Rasmussen's results of 47 % look pretty reasonable.
On the other hand, the AP (56), CNN (54), Bloomberg (54) and Harris (41) polls (all "adult") look pretty unreasonable.
Now, the leftists when confronted with such data tend to sputter that Rasmussen tends to have higher than average disapproval ratings, which is true. But, it is pretty well accepted in the survey research community that: (a) robo calls tend to produce higher disapproval ratings as respondents at less likely to feel they will be accused of "racism" for disapproving of Obama's job performance in a robo call, (b) "unsure" respondents tend to lean (when pushed) to disapprove, and (c) likely voters are less prone to "undecided" than adult or registered voters.
Next, the enraged leftists will shriek that what they really dislike about the Rasmussen surveys is the use of an intensity gauge. However, they won't tell you that Rasmussen did not invent that gauge (the Stapleometer was used forty years ago by Gallup, then known as the American Index of Public Opinion).
Then, they will alledge that the wording of the questions is slanted to achieve a particular result. However, if there were such wording, the results would fall outside the MoE of the other polls!
If you want to run the numbers yourself, check out the data at Pollster.
Finally, surveys in December include: AP, CNN, Bloomberg, Gallup, ABC, GWU, Fox, CBS, YouGov Pew, PPP, Ispos, Zogby, Rasmussen, ARG, NBC, Quinnipiac, Marist and Harris.
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