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  NKPatel's 2010 US Senate Predictions with recent news from CT,ND. (search mode)
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Author Topic: NKPatel's 2010 US Senate Predictions with recent news from CT,ND.  (Read 1174 times)
YaBB God
Posts: 1,714
United States

« on: January 06, 2010, 10:36:33 am »

The Democrats are favored to win the January 19 2010 Special Election in MA to suceed Ted Kennedy (Martha Coakley-D) defeats (Scott Brown-R) by a 57-42 percent margin.  Looking at November 2010.  The following Democratic Held US Senate Seats are safe. 42 Democratic US Senators are not up for re-election.
The following Democratic Held US Senate Seats are Competive but Democratic Favored.
51)CA(Boxer-D) trounces Fiorina-R. 60-40 margin.
52)CT(OPEN-Dodd-D)- Bluemanthal-D trounces Simmons-R  60-40 margin.
53)NY-B(Gillibrand-D) trounces whoever the GOP nominates- 60-40 margin.
The following Democratic Held US Senate Seats are Competive but Democratic Lean.
54)IL(OPEN-Burris-D)- Giannoulias-D defeats Kirk-R 55-45 margin.
55)NV(Reid-D)- Reid-D defeats Lowden-R 55-45 margin.
56)PA(Specter-D) defeats Toomey-R 55-45 margin.
AR(Lincoln-D),CO(Bennett-D),DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D),and ND(OPEN-Dorgan-D) are in the Tossup- Lean Republican Takeover collumn.
Looking at the Republican Seats. The Following Republican US Senate Seats are Safe. 22 Republicans are not up for re-election.
29)KS(OPEN-Brownback-R)- Jerry Moran-R or Todd Tiahrt-R is Strongly favored to win the  2010 US Senate Race.
The following Republican Held US Senate Seats are competitive but Republican Favored.
34)FL(OPEN-LeMeuix-R)- if Crist-R is the GOP nominee.  IF Rubio is the nominee- FL moves to the Tossup collumn.
35)LA(Vitter-R)- is favored to defeat Charlie Melancon-R 60-40 margin.
The following Republican Held US Senate Seats are Competive but Republican Lean.
36)KY(OPEN-Bunning-R)- Greyson-R or Paul-R is favored to hold on to the KY US Senate Seat.
37)NC(Burr-R)- favored to win re-election over Elaine Marshall-D
MO(OPEN-Bond-R),NH(OPEN-Gregg-R),and OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)- are in the Tossup- Lean Democratic Takeover Collumn.
Looking at the US Senate Seats in the Tossup- Lean Takeover Collumn.
Republicans are favored to pick up ND(OPEN-Dorgan-D)- Hoeven-R is favored to defeat Pomeroy-D by a 55-45 percent margin  or a Generic Democratic by a 60-40 percent margin.  38R
Democrats are favored to pick up MO(OPEN-Bond-R)- Carnahan-D is favored to defeat Blunt-R by a 52-47 percent margin. 57D.
The pure Tossup races are AR(Lincoln-D),CO(Bennett-D),DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D), NH(OPEN-Gregg-R),and OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R).  Democrats need to win 3 of those pure tossup races to maintain their 60 seat majority.  Democrats narrowly win AR(Lincoln-D), DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)- Beau Biden-D narrowly defeats Mike Castle-R.  59D. Republicans narrowly win CO(Bennett-D) narrowly loses to Norton-R. and NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)-Ayotte-R narrowly defeats Hodes-D. 40R.  OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R) will be a pure Tossup.  Democrats will lose between 0-2 seats.
Democrats pick up MO and possibly OH.
But lose ND and CO. and possibly AR.
YaBB God
Posts: 1,714
United States

« Reply #1 on: January 06, 2010, 11:39:42 am »

All I want to know is why do you have NV as Reid winning, he is trailing in every single poll taken.  I hope he wins, but he may bear the baggage of his son losing in a split vote to Goodman in the NV gubernatorial contest.
Reid is trailing because he is currently despised by both sides. Democrats are not happy with Reid because he has been a terrible Leader in the Senate. Republicans want to defeat Reid because he is a Democrat.  HCR is going to pass- this will bring the Democratic Base to Reid collumn.  Another reason for Reid winning is- Republican brand in NV is also toxic-  ie Jim Gibbons, John Ensign. NV is trending more Democratic- Does anyone think that Casino Industry- voters in Las Vegas Suburbs are going to replace Reid with a backbencher Republican will be in the minority. The Rory Reid/Oscar Goodman vote combined will go to Harry Reid.
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