Unified Ireland?

[hcallega]

Historically speaking, what do you all think would have happened if Margaret Thatcher had been killed in 1984 and/or the IRA's Tet Offensive had taken place (let's assume the Elksrund is never stopped)? Would Ireland be united today? And if so, how would the politics of the country have changed?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The IRA's military campaign never had any chance of being successful.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The IRA's military campaign never had any chance of being successful.

This.

If you want a united Ireland to happen IRL you probably have to go back to 1798... (if not earlier).

[hcallega]

I guess I'm seeing what the likely hood is of this accuring:

The Thatcher is killed. The British send a lot more troops to Northern Ireland in order to stamp out the IRA

The Elksrund delivers it's cargo (SAM 7s, a buttload of AK-47s, explosives, and heavy machine guns)

The IRA launches it's border campaign intended not on driving the Brits into the sea, but on convincing the British people that it was time for the Brits to withdraw

The SAM-7s are effective at knocking out the British helicopters, and the IRA are capable of holding onto the border towns long enough for the British public to get so frustrated that the British government sues for peace (a lot like what happened in 1920)

A peace plan is agreed that over the course of ten years Ireland will become united, the IRA and the Ulster paramilitary groups will disarm.


Assuming this happens, do you think Ireland's political scene would be substantially different today?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I guess I'm seeing what the likely hood is of this accuring:

The Thatcher is killed. The British send a lot more troops to Northern Ireland in order to stamp out the IRA

The Elksrund delivers it's cargo (SAM 7s, a buttload of AK-47s, explosives, and heavy machine guns)

The IRA launches it's border campaign intended not on driving the Brits into the sea, but on convincing the British people that it was time for the Brits to withdraw

The SAM-7s are effective at knocking out the British helicopters, and the IRA are capable of holding onto the border towns long enough for the British public to get so frustrated that the British government sues for peace (a lot like what happened in 1920)

A peace plan is agreed that over the course of ten years Ireland will become united, the IRA and the Ulster paramilitary groups will disarm.


Assuming this happens, do you think Ireland's political scene would be substantially different today?

That would not happen. You are vastly overestimating the military capabilities and competence of the (P)IRA for one thing.

[hcallega]

I guess I'm seeing what the likely hood is of this accuring:

The Thatcher is killed. The British send a lot more troops to Northern Ireland in order to stamp out the IRA

The Elksrund delivers it's cargo (SAM 7s, a buttload of AK-47s, explosives, and heavy machine guns)

The IRA launches it's border campaign intended not on driving the Brits into the sea, but on convincing the British people that it was time for the Brits to withdraw

The SAM-7s are effective at knocking out the British helicopters, and the IRA are capable of holding onto the border towns long enough for the British public to get so frustrated that the British government sues for peace (a lot like what happened in 1920)

A peace plan is agreed that over the course of ten years Ireland will become united, the IRA and the Ulster paramilitary groups will disarm.


Assuming this happens, do you think Ireland's political scene would be substantially different today?

That would not happen. You are vastly overestimating the military capabilities and competence of the (P)IRA for one thing.

To be fair, I also like to pretend Len Bias and Robert Kennedy never died. I guess the question I'm asking (third times the charm!) is for whatever reason, assuming NI is unified in the late 80s-early 90s. What happens to the Unionist Parties, does the SDLP stand-alone or join someone else, and is Sinn Fein more important nationally?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Civil War is what happens, 'sectarian cleansing' is what happens. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.

[hcallega]

Civil War is what happens, 'sectarian cleansing' is what happens. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.

Why would that happen?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Civil War is what happens, 'sectarian cleansing' is what happens. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.

Why would that happen?

Because the 55-60% Protestant-Unionist population do not want to live in a United Ireland.

If the situation did get untenable for the British emergency plans were drawn up in 1972(?) to basically commit a giant population transfer moving all the Catholics to Western Northern Ireland (which would mean ethnically cleansing West Belfast...) and making that part of the republic while the British would keep North-Eastern Down, Antrim and Eastern Country Derry iirc. The Protestants from the new parts of the republic would similiarly be relocated.

Now imagine how that would go down?

[hcallega]

Civil War is what happens, 'sectarian cleansing' is what happens. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.

Why would that happen?

Because the 55-60% Protestant-Unionist population do not want to live in a United Ireland.

If the situation did get untenable for the British emergency plans were drawn up in 1972(?) to basically commit a giant population transfer moving all the Catholics to Western Northern Ireland (which would mean ethnically cleansing West Belfast...) and making that part of the republic while the British would keep North-Eastern Down, Antrim and Eastern Country Derry iirc. The Protestants from the new parts of the republic would similiarly be relocated.

Now imagine how that would go down?

That wouldn't end well. Since you seem to know so much about Irish history, in what situation do you believe a united ireland could be achieved.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I don't believe it could have occured, not without massive loss of life/ethnic cleansing at least not in the modern period.

Historically the best chances of a United Independent Ireland were 1) What if the freak blizzard of 1796 had not occured and Napoleon's forces had arrived on the Cork Coast in December of that year instead of turning back? The Irish Militia and the British Garrison was so weak the country would have been outrun quite quickly (and massive revolts would have taken place across the country... massive loss of life here too) perhaps even before Westminster could put an army together. Some sort of French quasi-puppet regime would have been installed with someone like Henry Joe McCracken as the Napoleonic stand-in (Who wants to be King of Ireland?). But if this occured European and World history would have been very different and there are doubts about the viability of this state so...

2) No Norman Invasion in 1169 in the first place and the Gaelic Chieftains finally conquer one and other enough that someone becomes powerful enough to rule over the whole Island without local chief immediateries... this was on the way to happening before the Normans intervened, the major Gaelic Kings were growing more powerful and powerful over the minor ones so perhaps give it a century or two...

[hcallega]

I don't believe it could have occured, not without massive loss of life/ethnic cleansing at least not in the modern period.

Historically the best chances of a United Independent Ireland were 1) What if the freak blizzard of 1796 had not occured and Napoleon's forces had arrived on the Cork Coast in December of that year instead of turning back? The Irish Militia and the British Garrison was so weak the country would have been outrun quite quickly (and massive revolts would have taken place across the country... massive loss of life here too) perhaps even before Westminster could put an army together. Some sort of French quasi-puppet regime would have been installed with someone like Henry Joe McCracken as the Napoleonic stand-in (Who wants to be King of Ireland?). But if this occured European and World history would have been very different and there are doubts about the viability of this state so...

2) No Norman Invasion in 1169 in the first place and the Gaelic Chieftains finally conquer one and other enough that someone becomes powerful enough to rule over the whole Island without local chief immediateries... this was on the way to happening before the Normans intervened, the major Gaelic Kings were growing more powerful and powerful over the minor ones so perhaps give it a century or two...

Great....

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I don't believe it could have occured, not without massive loss of life/ethnic cleansing at least not in the modern period.

Historically the best chances of a United Independent Ireland were 1) What if the freak blizzard of 1796 had not occured and Napoleon's forces had arrived on the Cork Coast in December of that year instead of turning back? The Irish Militia and the British Garrison was so weak the country would have been outrun quite quickly (and massive revolts would have taken place across the country... massive loss of life here too) perhaps even before Westminster could put an army together. Some sort of French quasi-puppet regime would have been installed with someone like Henry Joe McCracken as the Napoleonic stand-in (Who wants to be King of Ireland?). But if this occured European and World history would have been very different and there are doubts about the viability of this state so...

2) No Norman Invasion in 1169 in the first place and the Gaelic Chieftains finally conquer one and other enough that someone becomes powerful enough to rule over the whole Island without local chief immediateries... this was on the way to happening before the Normans intervened, the major Gaelic Kings were growing more powerful and powerful over the minor ones so perhaps give it a century or two...

Great....

Ireland was never 'unified' in the first place so I don't rate the chances of an independent all-Ireland state coming into being very strongly...

[hcallega]

I don't believe it could have occured, not without massive loss of life/ethnic cleansing at least not in the modern period.

Historically the best chances of a United Independent Ireland were 1) What if the freak blizzard of 1796 had not occured and Napoleon's forces had arrived on the Cork Coast in December of that year instead of turning back? The Irish Militia and the British Garrison was so weak the country would have been outrun quite quickly (and massive revolts would have taken place across the country... massive loss of life here too) perhaps even before Westminster could put an army together. Some sort of French quasi-puppet regime would have been installed with someone like Henry Joe McCracken as the Napoleonic stand-in (Who wants to be King of Ireland?). But if this occured European and World history would have been very different and there are doubts about the viability of this state so...

2) No Norman Invasion in 1169 in the first place and the Gaelic Chieftains finally conquer one and other enough that someone becomes powerful enough to rule over the whole Island without local chief immediateries... this was on the way to happening before the Normans intervened, the major Gaelic Kings were growing more powerful and powerful over the minor ones so perhaps give it a century or two...

Great....

Ireland was never 'unified' in the first place so I don't rate the chances of an independent all-Ireland state coming into being very strongly...

Just wondering, but what party are you a member of?

[Хahar 🤔]

I don't believe it could have occured, not without massive loss of life/ethnic cleansing at least not in the modern period.

Historically the best chances of a United Independent Ireland were 1) What if the freak blizzard of 1796 had not occured and Napoleon's forces had arrived on the Cork Coast in December of that year instead of turning back? The Irish Militia and the British Garrison was so weak the country would have been outrun quite quickly (and massive revolts would have taken place across the country... massive loss of life here too) perhaps even before Westminster could put an army together. Some sort of French quasi-puppet regime would have been installed with someone like Henry Joe McCracken as the Napoleonic stand-in (Who wants to be King of Ireland?). But if this occured European and World history would have been very different and there are doubts about the viability of this state so...

2) No Norman Invasion in 1169 in the first place and the Gaelic Chieftains finally conquer one and other enough that someone becomes powerful enough to rule over the whole Island without local chief immediateries... this was on the way to happening before the Normans intervened, the major Gaelic Kings were growing more powerful and powerful over the minor ones so perhaps give it a century or two...

Great....

Ireland was never 'unified' in the first place so I don't rate the chances of an independent all-Ireland state coming into being very strongly...

Ireland was very unified before the War.

[Јas]

Ireland was never 'unified' in the first place...

6-7 December 1922 ()

[hcallega]

In terms of where I'm gettting my facts from, it's The Secret History of the IRA. There was a fundamental belief that the IRA would be able to duplicate the sucess of the Viet Cong in terms of giving it one last shot. The theory was this:

1-The IRA would seize the border towns/cities in the border counties overnight
2-The British would follow their normal response pattern and deploy Lynx Choppers to clear out the IRA forces
3-The SAM 7s would knock at least a few of these choppers out of the sky. The image of these burning choppers on BBC would lead to the Brits grounding them
4-The British would then send in APCs with troops
5-The IRA would then use it's heavy machine guns, RPGs, and roadside explosives to stall the effort and lead to a slow conflict.
6-The British people wouldn't stand for the level of casulties and would demand peace.
Slab Murphy was going to run the offensive, and the plan was to hold out for a few weeks at most. I linked this to the death of Tahtacher because I believe that she would have held out and that a weaker ruler may have caved in.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I don't believe it could have occured, not without massive loss of life/ethnic cleansing at least not in the modern period.

Historically the best chances of a United Independent Ireland were 1) What if the freak blizzard of 1796 had not occured and Napoleon's forces had arrived on the Cork Coast in December of that year instead of turning back? The Irish Militia and the British Garrison was so weak the country would have been outrun quite quickly (and massive revolts would have taken place across the country... massive loss of life here too) perhaps even before Westminster could put an army together. Some sort of French quasi-puppet regime would have been installed with someone like Henry Joe McCracken as the Napoleonic stand-in (Who wants to be King of Ireland?). But if this occured European and World history would have been very different and there are doubts about the viability of this state so...

2) No Norman Invasion in 1169 in the first place and the Gaelic Chieftains finally conquer one and other enough that someone becomes powerful enough to rule over the whole Island without local chief immediateries... this was on the way to happening before the Normans intervened, the major Gaelic Kings were growing more powerful and powerful over the minor ones so perhaps give it a century or two...

Great....

Ireland was never 'unified' in the first place so I don't rate the chances of an independent all-Ireland state coming into being very strongly...

Ireland was very unified before the War.

Not as an independent state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

6-The British people wouldn't stand for the level of casulties and would demand peace.

This was both one of the main pillars of IRA strategy throughout the troubles and one of their biggest errors; they completely misjudged the likely reaction of people on the other side of the water to both increased violence in Northern Ireland and to terrorist campaigns on the mainland. Increased violence did not lead to demands for peace, it just lead to an increase in anti-Irish sentiment (some of which I remember from school - and I only grew up at the tail-end of things, not during the '70's). The only saving grace for them in that regard was that most people thought that the Unionists were crazy as well.

I think part of this might have been caused by believing too much in their own propaganda; all that pseudo anti-colonial struggle nonsense, none of which was really appropriate for the situation on the ground.

[hcallega]

My personal belief is that with the 1987 PM elections on the horizon, the combination of Thatcher's death and a bloody situation in Northern Ireland would have led to at the very least a hung election and the possibility of a Labour-SDP-Liberal Coalition, which in turn may have negotiated an end to British troops and openend up the potential for a united Ireland. Let's not forget that a majority of British people support a united Ireland.

[k-onmmunist]

My personal belief is that with the 1987 PM elections on the horizon, the combination of Thatcher's death and a bloody situation in Northern Ireland would have led to at the very least a hung election and the possibility of a Labour-SDP-Liberal Coalition, which in turn may have negotiated an end to British troops and openend up the potential for a united Ireland. Let's not forget that a majority of British people support a united Ireland.

Umm, cite?

And no, it's implausible unless you go before even the 19th century.

[hcallega]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My personal belief is that with the 1987 PM elections on the horizon, the combination of Thatcher's death and a bloody situation in Northern Ireland would have led to at the very least a hung election and the possibility of a Labour-SDP-Liberal Coalition,

...and you're making the same mistake. If Thatcher had been murdered by the IRA shortly before a General Election the result would have been the biggest landslide since 1931. And, frankly, no GFA a decade later - low level civil war would be a feature of life in Northern Ireland now.

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You should note the sort of policies towards Northern Ireland that the Callaghan government adopted. There would have been no chance of the Northern Ireland brief going to a pro-Sinn Fein figure and not even much chance of it going to someone associated with the SDLP (which was routinely done when Labour was in opposition, but not when it was in government). Position would probably have gone to someone who's career was in decline so as to kill it off forever, but also would have done what the civil servants wanted - Roy Mason redux, in other words. This is even more true if (somehow) a Labour-led government took office after Thatcher getting blown up.

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Don't confuse that with support for the IRA or a military solution to the troubles, whatever you do. Most people didn't care about Northern Ireland - it was regarded as a strange mad land across the sea where people kept on re-fighting wars that happened centuries ago, all hated each other, blew each other up and wore silly little bowler hats. Probably the views of the SDLP would be closest to those of most people on this side of the Irish Sea.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Al, I disagree. Bowler hats are never silly.

[hcallega]

Well I guess we're never going to agree here. My belief is that if Thatcher died in 1984 and the Tet Offensive was sucessfull in 1987, than the Ireland would be united today. However the possibility of sectarian violence in the north would be quite likely if not guranteed.

Anyway, my main point here is what political parties would emerge? How would the remaining Unionists vote? What would happen to the SDLP? Would Sinn Fein still be relavant?