Unified Ireland?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The IRA's military campaign never had any chance of being successful.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Civil War is what happens, 'sectarian cleansing' is what happens. Bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

6-The British people wouldn't stand for the level of casulties and would demand peace.

This was both one of the main pillars of IRA strategy throughout the troubles and one of their biggest errors; they completely misjudged the likely reaction of people on the other side of the water to both increased violence in Northern Ireland and to terrorist campaigns on the mainland. Increased violence did not lead to demands for peace, it just lead to an increase in anti-Irish sentiment (some of which I remember from school - and I only grew up at the tail-end of things, not during the '70's). The only saving grace for them in that regard was that most people thought that the Unionists were crazy as well.

I think part of this might have been caused by believing too much in their own propaganda; all that pseudo anti-colonial struggle nonsense, none of which was really appropriate for the situation on the ground.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My personal belief is that with the 1987 PM elections on the horizon, the combination of Thatcher's death and a bloody situation in Northern Ireland would have led to at the very least a hung election and the possibility of a Labour-SDP-Liberal Coalition,

...and you're making the same mistake. If Thatcher had been murdered by the IRA shortly before a General Election the result would have been the biggest landslide since 1931. And, frankly, no GFA a decade later - low level civil war would be a feature of life in Northern Ireland now.

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You should note the sort of policies towards Northern Ireland that the Callaghan government adopted. There would have been no chance of the Northern Ireland brief going to a pro-Sinn Fein figure and not even much chance of it going to someone associated with the SDLP (which was routinely done when Labour was in opposition, but not when it was in government). Position would probably have gone to someone who's career was in decline so as to kill it off forever, but also would have done what the civil servants wanted - Roy Mason redux, in other words. This is even more true if (somehow) a Labour-led government took office after Thatcher getting blown up.

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Don't confuse that with support for the IRA or a military solution to the troubles, whatever you do. Most people didn't care about Northern Ireland - it was regarded as a strange mad land across the sea where people kept on re-fighting wars that happened centuries ago, all hated each other, blew each other up and wore silly little bowler hats. Probably the views of the SDLP would be closest to those of most people on this side of the Irish Sea.