Gully Foyle's African News Thread

[politicus]

Lt. Colonel Zida appointed Prime Minister in Burkina Faso by Michel Kafondo. So much for civilian rule...

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411200411.html

[politicus]

The Kenyan government fears that  the chief investigator in charge of uncovering  the post election violence in 2008 is on his way to Hague to testify before the ICC.

Former senior Deputy Police Commissioner Francis Okonya vanished last Friday. His official car was reportedly seen driving into the US embassy in Gigiri in the afternoon following a row with his former boss Inspector General David Kimaiyo and his deputy Grace Kaindi in the morning.

Okonya has not been seen since, his phones are switched off and his family says they have not seen him.

Really hope Okonya has decided to testify - and that he will be properly protected if he does.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411250502.html

[politicus]

Nigerian MPs are trying to impeach President Goodluck Johnathan for failure to manage the security situation and protect the country from Boko Haram. They also cite monumental corruption (which is sorta the norm in Nigeria..). They claim to already have more than the necessary 1/3 of MPs to serve the President with an impeachment notice and that they will do so on Wednesday.

The November 20 siege of parliament where police teargassed members (incl. the Speaker) hasnt made MPs more amiable towards Johnathan, so it looks like his goodluck has run out..

http://allafrica.com/stories/201411300135.html

[politicus]

On Wednesday the 2005 MDC breakaway MDC-N under Welshman Ncube and the 2014 breakaway MDC Renewal Team under former Minister of Finance and MDC SG Tendai Biti was merged as United Movement of Democratic Change (UMDC) with Ncube and Sekai Holland as joint leaders. The new party will hold its first congress n August and is intended as the basis for an alliance uniting the opposition. The problem is that the big MDC under Morgan Tsvangerai is outside making the United in the party name a bit of a joke. Despite a crushing electoral defeat in 2013 and dwindling support all around Tsvangerai still insists he is the only one that can bring democracy to Zimbabwe (a claim he made a mockery of at their latest congress by basically making MDC-T into his personal property and ousting all critics).

The new party has 17 seats in parliament (2 MDC-N + 15 Renewal team) and 2 senators, so a modest beginning, but it has most of the talented opposition politicians, so hopefully it will grow. MDC-T has 55 MPs left.

[politicus]

The impeachment case against Goodluck Johnathan will be before the Nigerian Senate on December 16, so that's the crucial date. The Senate is most likely to block it,  but we will see.

Johnathan is up for election in February, so it could seem pointless to impeach him now, but the huge advantage of controlling state resources in African elections gives him too many advantages seen from an opposition POV.

[politicus]

The ICC prosecutor has dropped the case against Uhuru Kenyatta citing lack of evidence, Okonya never materialized... He underlines, that the case can be restartet if there is new evidence.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201412051341.html

EDIT: His family claims it is false rumour that he drove into the US embassy. Most likely he got killed to shut him up..

[politicus]

Afumba Mombotwa, who is the Chairman of the separatist Linyungandambo movement and self proclaimed Governor of Barotseland (=Western Province in Zambia) was arrested Friday evening in Sesheke and is likely to be charged with treason.

Mombotwa is the leading advocate for the total independence of Barotseland from Zambia. On 14th August 2013  he took oath of office as Administrator General of Barotseland, a move that incensed the Zambian government and sent security forces after him (with the usual human rights violations against civilians and spread of AIDS). He fled into Namibia where he has been operating from until his arrest. The Brits merged Barotseland into Northern Rhodesia in the early 1900s, but it is an old kingdom with its own identity and had autonomy during the colonial era, which continued in the first years after independence from 1964 to 1969, when Zambias first president Kenneth Kaunda terminated it. From 2012 separatists have been campaigning again.

Its a bit unclear what Mombotwa hoped to accomplish by reentering Barotseland without his men.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barotseland

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YK9562tRnog

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

He may have thought he could do more as a martyr than as a leader.

[politicus]

The new interim government has "suspended" Compaore's old party the ironically named Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP).

http://allafrica.com/stories/201412171405.html

[Nhoj]

Kenya has passed a rather draconian anti terror law.
There are a few good measures in the bill but it looks to be for the most part pretty bad.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30546951

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[politicus]

There has been large demonstrationss in towns across the Democratic Republic of Congo and violent clashes between police and protesters for a third day in Congo's capital Kinshasa amid mounting anger over President Joseph Kabila's plans to delay the country's presidential election until a general census has taken place. Given the conditions in Congo that could take up to three years and the opposition sees it as a ploy for Kabila to stay in power. Kabila came into power in 2001 and was "democratically" elected in 2006 and 2011. He is ineligible for a third term and would therefore have to step down in December 2016.

[Insula Dei]

There has been large demonstrationss in towns across the Democratic Republic of Congo and violent clashes between police and protesters for a third day in Congo's capital Kinshasa amid mounting anger over President Joseph Kabila's plans to delay the country's presidential election until a general census has taken place. Given the conditions in Congo that could take up to three years and the opposition sees it as a ploy for Kabila to stay in power. Kabila came into power in 2001 and was "democratically" elected in 2006 and 2011. He is ineligible for a third term and would therefore have to step down in December 2016.

I'm loving the optimism.

[Famous Mortimer]

He wrote the damn constitution. He abolished the run-off for himself. Why the hell did he put a term limit in there? African dictators always do that. Seriously. Why? Stop it.

[Insula Dei]

He wrote the damn constitution. He abolished the run-off for himself. Why the hell did he put a term limit in there? African dictators always do that. Seriously. Why? Stop it.

Kabila isn't really a dictator, nor are his powers unchecked.

[politicus]

He wrote the damn constitution. He abolished the run-off for himself. Why the hell did he put a term limit in there? African dictators always do that. Seriously. Why? Stop it.

Kabila isn't really a dictator, nor are his powers unchecked.

Nah, many African strongmen can get away with ruling in a fairly authoritarian way if other powerful groups (including regions and ethnic groups not favoured by the ruler) know that their time in office is limited. Otherwise you need a much stronger coercive apparatus - generally incl. a national "one party system" - than most African leaders have at their disposal and/or solid foreign backing (Kabila got that, but only from Uganda and Rwanda, not from strong players).

Kabila's most likely successor is the governor of Katanga, a province which produces a very large share of the country's wealth, but hasn't gotten the equivalent political influence. They and other regional centers thinks its their turn now and will not accept Kabila going on for ever.

[Simfan34]

Damn it! I should have mentioned Moise Katumbi before you did. He also owns TP Mazembe, the leading team in country, and has a Jewish father (he was born Moise Soriano but his name was "authenticated" to Katumbi).




What's with the Central African custom of naming things Tout Puissant (eg TP OK Jazz), anyway?

[Insula Dei]

He wrote the damn constitution. He abolished the run-off for himself. Why the hell did he put a term limit in there? African dictators always do that. Seriously. Why? Stop it.

Kabila isn't really a dictator, nor are his powers unchecked.

Nah, many African strongmen can get away with ruling in a fairly authoritarian way if other powerful groups (including regions and ethnic groups not favoured by the ruler) know that their time in office is limited. Otherwise you need a much stronger coercive apparatus - generally incl. a national "one party system" - than most African leaders have at their disposal and/or solid foreign backing (Kabila got that, but only from Uganda and Rwanda, not from strong players).

Kabila's most likely successor is the governor of Katanga, a province which produces a very large share of the country's wealth, but hasn't gotten the equivalent political influence. They and other regional centers thinks its their turn now and will not accept Kabila going on for ever.

That's exactly my point. Kabila's rule has always been dependent on the passive collaboration of various other players, who have also served as a check on his exploits. Consider for example the position of someone like Kengo Wa Dondo, who's a political opponent of the Kabilas, but has presided over the Senate for a number of years now.

Kabila's now trying to side-track this opposition. I'm hearing it's open season on anyone wearing a TP Mazembe outfit in Kabila's heartlands. (The club is owned by Katanga governor and presidential hopeful Katumbi) That might work for him or it might not, I'm not really in a position to judge. 

[Simfan34]

He wrote the damn constitution. He abolished the run-off for himself. Why the hell did he put a term limit in there? African dictators always do that. Seriously. Why? Stop it.

Kabila isn't really a dictator, nor are his powers unchecked.

Nah, many African strongmen can get away with ruling in a fairly authoritarian way if other powerful groups (including regions and ethnic groups not favoured by the ruler) know that their time in office is limited. Otherwise you need a much stronger coercive apparatus - generally incl. a national "one party system" - than most African leaders have at their disposal and/or solid foreign backing (Kabila got that, but only from Uganda and Rwanda, not from strong players).

Kabila's most likely successor is the governor of Katanga, a province which produces a very large share of the country's wealth, but hasn't gotten the equivalent political influence. They and other regional centers thinks its their turn now and will not accept Kabila going on for ever.

That's exactly my point. Kabila's rule has always been dependent on the passive collaboration of various other players, who have also served as a check on his exploits. Consider for example the position of someone like Kengo Wa Dondo, who's a political opponent of the Kabilas, but has presided over the Senate for a number of years now.

Kabila's now trying to side-track this opposition. I'm hearing it's open season on anyone wearing a TP Mazembe outfit in Kabila's heartlands. (The club is owned by Katanga governor and presidential hopeful Katumbi) That might work for him or it might not, I'm not really in a position to judge. 

Huh. I haven't actually heard that yet.

[politicus]

Damn it! I should have mentioned Moise Katumbi before you did. He also owns TP Mazembe, the leading team in country, and has a Jewish father (he was born Moise Soriano but his name was "authenticated" to Katumbi).

It's not a competition Sim and I actually didn't mention the name Moïse Katumbi Chapwe, just his position. He is an ambitious guy with a business empire and also tried to meddle in the Zambian presidential election by funding Sata's widow Dr. Christine Kaseba when it looked like she had a chance, but withdrew his support when it became exposed to the public.

[Simfan34]

But it is!

[Insula Dei]

He wrote the damn constitution. He abolished the run-off for himself. Why the hell did he put a term limit in there? African dictators always do that. Seriously. Why? Stop it.

Kabila isn't really a dictator, nor are his powers unchecked.

Nah, many African strongmen can get away with ruling in a fairly authoritarian way if other powerful groups (including regions and ethnic groups not favoured by the ruler) know that their time in office is limited. Otherwise you need a much stronger coercive apparatus - generally incl. a national "one party system" - than most African leaders have at their disposal and/or solid foreign backing (Kabila got that, but only from Uganda and Rwanda, not from strong players).

Kabila's most likely successor is the governor of Katanga, a province which produces a very large share of the country's wealth, but hasn't gotten the equivalent political influence. They and other regional centers thinks its their turn now and will not accept Kabila going on for ever.

That's exactly my point. Kabila's rule has always been dependent on the passive collaboration of various other players, who have also served as a check on his exploits. Consider for example the position of someone like Kengo Wa Dondo, who's a political opponent of the Kabilas, but has presided over the Senate for a number of years now.

Kabila's now trying to side-track this opposition. I'm hearing it's open season on anyone wearing a TP Mazembe outfit in Kabila's heartlands. (The club is owned by Katanga governor and presidential hopeful Katumbi) That might work for him or it might not, I'm not really in a position to judge. 

Huh. I haven't actually heard that yet.

Read about it in my morning newspaper. Have been scouting for an English-language link, but my internet heuristics are a bit rusty. If you read French a pretty good summary of what's been going on can be found here:

http://www.direct.cd/actu/2015/01/21/comprendre-la-situation-en-rdc-en-10-points.html

Mind you, no mention in there of violence involving TP Mazembe fans.

What's with the Central African custom of naming things Tout Puissant (eg TP OK Jazz), anyway?

Franco!

[Simfan34]

And to bring it back home...

[Simfan34]

The FT ran a piece on Katumbi just a few days ago:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Does he seem a bit too good to be true? Yes; and when people, especially in Africa, do sound too good to be true, it's usually because they are. But I've tended to believe that the Congo could do spectacularly well for itself with even relatively mediocre leadership- it's just that they've managed to have spectacularly terrible leaders for, well, just about always.

In 1993, the Congo had a nominal GDP of $47.45 billion,  in 1993 dollars- today that would be $77.74 billion. Today it is $30.63 billion. No wonder there are people nostalgic for Mobutu, I used to think they were absolutely crazy but no more. Even still, GDP per capita grew an average of -2.2% under his rule. It is that things, while getting worse, were better under Mobutu than under Kabila, simply because they haven't gotten any better since Mobutu's fall. It's a rather awful situation to be in

Think about it. If the Congo's gross GDP had grown at a mere 3.6% annually between 1993 and 2000 (the average growth rate in the 1990s, which wasn't even a particularly good time) and then 5.5% between 2001 and 2014 (again the average), it would by now have a GDP of $199.73 billion and a GDP per capita (assuming constant population) of $2,960- roughly the same as Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, or, if you'd like, the Philippines or Sri Lanka.

And this is just keeping pace with the reset of the continent; this ignores that the Congo is far better off in terms of raw potential than the average African country. Imagine if it had grown at the "miracle" rate of 7% (hardly miraculous considering what the Congo has going for it). Gross GDP would be $321.89 billion, and GDP per capita would be $4,770, in the neighborhood of Tunisia, Jordan, or Iran.

Instead today it has a GDP per capita of $454- it's four and a half times poorer than it would be if had just kept pace with the rest of the continent, and more than ten times poorer if it had grown at a rate more in line with its potential.

It's a travesty that the Congo has managed to remain so poor for so long.

[politicus]

But I've tended to believe that the Congo could do spectacularly well for itself with even relatively mediocre leadership- it's just that they've managed to have spectacularly terrible leaders for, well, just about always.

In 1993, the Congo had a nominal GDP of $47.45 billion,  in 1993 dollars- today that would be $77.74 billion. Today it is $30.63 billion. No wonder there are people nostalgic for Mobutu, I used to think they were absolutely crazy but no more. Even still, GDP per capita grew an average of -2.2% under his rule. It is that things, while getting worse, were better under Mobutu than under Kabila, simply because they haven't gotten any better since Mobutu's fall. It's a rather awful situation to be in

Think about it. If the Congo's gross GDP had grown at a mere 3.6% annually between 1993 and 2000 (the average growth rate in the 1990s, which wasn't even a particularly good time) and then 5.5% between 2001 and 2014 (again the average), it would by now have a GDP of $199.73 billion and a GDP per capita (assuming constant population) of $2,960- roughly the same as Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, or, if you'd like, the Philippines or Sri Lanka.

And this is just keeping pace with the reset of the continent; this ignores that the Congo is far better off in terms of raw potential than the average African country. Imagine if it had grown at the "miracle" rate of 7% (hardly miraculous considering what the Congo has going for it). Gross GDP would be $321.89 billion, and GDP per capita would be $4,770, in the neighborhood of Tunisia, Jordan, or Iran.

Instead today it has a GDP per capita of $454- it's four and a half times poorer than it would be if had just kept pace with the rest of the continent, and more than ten times poorer if it had grown at a rate more in line with its potential.

It's a travesty that the Congo has managed to remain so poor for so long.

It is a travesty that a lot of foreign and domestic players have a reason to uphold. A wealthy, united an well functioning Congo would be a regional great power with the capacity to influence politics in its neighbouring countries. It would also mean a stop to looting possibilities for a wide range of war lords and foreign interests.

Rwanda, Uganda and Angola are all players with a clear interest in avoiding a strong Congo.

Like Nigeria it is also an entity made too big and too varied by the colonizers to be an effective post-colonial state.

[Insula Dei]

I'll butt in to express my scepticism about a Katumbi presidency. For one thing, I don't see how a Katanga president is supposed to fit into the country's balance of powers. Katanga has always (well, since the Belgian government propped up Tshombe in 1960) been a bit of an outlier within the Congolese constellation, and the province has been on the receiving end of a good deal of resentment from the rest of the country. Not that there is exactly a love affair between Kinshasa and Kivuland, but Katanga must take the cake for being the most 'unique' region of the nation. Let's not forget, they killed Lumumba.