Gully Foyle's African News Thread

[Insula Dei]

There has been large demonstrationss in towns across the Democratic Republic of Congo and violent clashes between police and protesters for a third day in Congo's capital Kinshasa amid mounting anger over President Joseph Kabila's plans to delay the country's presidential election until a general census has taken place. Given the conditions in Congo that could take up to three years and the opposition sees it as a ploy for Kabila to stay in power. Kabila came into power in 2001 and was "democratically" elected in 2006 and 2011. He is ineligible for a third term and would therefore have to step down in December 2016.

I'm loving the optimism.

[Insula Dei]

He wrote the damn constitution. He abolished the run-off for himself. Why the hell did he put a term limit in there? African dictators always do that. Seriously. Why? Stop it.

Kabila isn't really a dictator, nor are his powers unchecked.

[Insula Dei]

He wrote the damn constitution. He abolished the run-off for himself. Why the hell did he put a term limit in there? African dictators always do that. Seriously. Why? Stop it.

Kabila isn't really a dictator, nor are his powers unchecked.

Nah, many African strongmen can get away with ruling in a fairly authoritarian way if other powerful groups (including regions and ethnic groups not favoured by the ruler) know that their time in office is limited. Otherwise you need a much stronger coercive apparatus - generally incl. a national "one party system" - than most African leaders have at their disposal and/or solid foreign backing (Kabila got that, but only from Uganda and Rwanda, not from strong players).

Kabila's most likely successor is the governor of Katanga, a province which produces a very large share of the country's wealth, but hasn't gotten the equivalent political influence. They and other regional centers thinks its their turn now and will not accept Kabila going on for ever.

That's exactly my point. Kabila's rule has always been dependent on the passive collaboration of various other players, who have also served as a check on his exploits. Consider for example the position of someone like Kengo Wa Dondo, who's a political opponent of the Kabilas, but has presided over the Senate for a number of years now.

Kabila's now trying to side-track this opposition. I'm hearing it's open season on anyone wearing a TP Mazembe outfit in Kabila's heartlands. (The club is owned by Katanga governor and presidential hopeful Katumbi) That might work for him or it might not, I'm not really in a position to judge. 

[Insula Dei]

He wrote the damn constitution. He abolished the run-off for himself. Why the hell did he put a term limit in there? African dictators always do that. Seriously. Why? Stop it.

Kabila isn't really a dictator, nor are his powers unchecked.

Nah, many African strongmen can get away with ruling in a fairly authoritarian way if other powerful groups (including regions and ethnic groups not favoured by the ruler) know that their time in office is limited. Otherwise you need a much stronger coercive apparatus - generally incl. a national "one party system" - than most African leaders have at their disposal and/or solid foreign backing (Kabila got that, but only from Uganda and Rwanda, not from strong players).

Kabila's most likely successor is the governor of Katanga, a province which produces a very large share of the country's wealth, but hasn't gotten the equivalent political influence. They and other regional centers thinks its their turn now and will not accept Kabila going on for ever.

That's exactly my point. Kabila's rule has always been dependent on the passive collaboration of various other players, who have also served as a check on his exploits. Consider for example the position of someone like Kengo Wa Dondo, who's a political opponent of the Kabilas, but has presided over the Senate for a number of years now.

Kabila's now trying to side-track this opposition. I'm hearing it's open season on anyone wearing a TP Mazembe outfit in Kabila's heartlands. (The club is owned by Katanga governor and presidential hopeful Katumbi) That might work for him or it might not, I'm not really in a position to judge. 

Huh. I haven't actually heard that yet.

Read about it in my morning newspaper. Have been scouting for an English-language link, but my internet heuristics are a bit rusty. If you read French a pretty good summary of what's been going on can be found here:

http://www.direct.cd/actu/2015/01/21/comprendre-la-situation-en-rdc-en-10-points.html

Mind you, no mention in there of violence involving TP Mazembe fans.

What's with the Central African custom of naming things Tout Puissant (eg TP OK Jazz), anyway?

Franco!

[Insula Dei]

I'll butt in to express my scepticism about a Katumbi presidency. For one thing, I don't see how a Katanga president is supposed to fit into the country's balance of powers. Katanga has always (well, since the Belgian government propped up Tshombe in 1960) been a bit of an outlier within the Congolese constellation, and the province has been on the receiving end of a good deal of resentment from the rest of the country. Not that there is exactly a love affair between Kinshasa and Kivuland, but Katanga must take the cake for being the most 'unique' region of the nation. Let's not forget, they killed Lumumba.

[Insula Dei]

I'll but in to express my scepticism about a Katumbi presidency. For one thing, I don't see how a Katanga president is supposed to fit into the country's balance of powers. Katanga has always (well, since the Belgian government propped up Tshombe in 1960) been a bit of an outlier within the Congolese constellation, and the province has been on the receiving end of a good deal of resentment from the rest of the country. Not that there is exactly a love affair between Kinshasa and Kivuland, but Katanga must take the cake for being the most 'unique' region of the nation. Let's not forget, they killed Lumumba.

He has a rock solid power base and a successful track record to run on. A full integration of Katanga in the national political system would also be a precondition for moving forward.

I'm also sceptical of Congo moving forward any time soon.

[Insula Dei]

I'll butt in to express my scepticism about a Katumbi presidency. For one thing, I don't see how a Katanga president is supposed to fit into the country's balance of powers. Katanga has always (well, since the Belgian government propped up Tshombe in 1960) been a bit of an outlier within the Congolese constellation, and the province has been on the receiving end of a good deal of resentment from the rest of the country. Not that there is exactly a love affair between Kinshasa and Kivuland, but Katanga must take the cake for being the most 'unique' region of the nation. Let's not forget, they killed Lumumba.

Laurent-Désiré Kabila was born in Katanga and the province is also considered Kabila Jr.s home province.

But Kabila's rose to power with the east of the country and Rwanda behind him. Katanga wasn't the launching pad for the power of the Kabilas.