Will there be any black senators after Jan. 3, 2011?

[pragmatic liberal]

I say probably not. Burris is not running for reelection.

Kendrick Meek will be nominated by the Democrats in Florida, but he's not likely to win no matter who his opponent is. (Only way I see Meek winning is if Crist were to run as an independent - and even then I'd expect Rubio probably gets a plurality.)

Harold Ford in NY is a possibility, given that Gillibrand remains weak. But so far Harold Ford for Senate - whether it's as a Democrat or on the Independence Party line, as some have floated - looks to be #epicfail.

Actually, it seems like the most plausible "next black senator" is Republican Michael Williams in Texas, although he would have to beat Greg Abbott and David Dewhurst, which wouldn't be easy. He could get there this year if Hutchison steps down after the primary, but I actually expect that Hutchison will wind up staying in office until 2012.

After that there aren't too many immediately apparent black potential senators. Denise Nappier could run for Lieberman's seat in 2012, but Chris Murphy will probably win the nomination instead. Anthony Williams in Maryland and Cory Booker in New Jersey are probably both aiming for the governorships. Same with Artur Davis, who will probably lose this year, but may try again four years later.

There are several black Democrats in Illinois who could be plausible down the road - Robin Kelly, Will Burns - but probably not unless Kirk wins this fall (giving them a chance to run in 2016) or Durbin steps down.

[Ronnie]

Probably not

[Eraserhead]

Unlikely.  Ford isn't going anywhere. The guy has turned himself into a complete joke. Meek might have an outside shot though, especially if Rubio gets the GOP nomination.

[pragmatic liberal]

Unlikely.  Ford isn't going anywhere. The guy has turned himself into a complete joke. Meek might have an outside shot though, especially if Rubio gets the GOP nomination.

As liberal as I am, I don't think Democrats should underestimate Rubio. He may be very right-wing, but he's a very solid campaigner, comes across as quite moderate, and will have heavy support from both conservatives and the Cuban community. And it's likely to be a Republican year, in a Republican-leaning state.

[SamInTheSouth]

Unlikely.  Ford isn't going anywhere. The guy has turned himself into a complete joke. Meek might have an outside shot though, especially if Rubio gets the GOP nomination.

Meek has no more a shot of beating Rubio than he does Crist.

[pragmatic liberal]

Anyone from Texas think Michael Williams has a good shot at the Republican nomination for Hutchison's seat? (Whenever she gives that up.)

[ajc0918]

I know it's in the future, but if either Ryan Frazier or Allen West win, I could see them becoming senators.

[Eraserhead]

Unlikely.  Ford isn't going anywhere. The guy has turned himself into a complete joke. Meek might have an outside shot though, especially if Rubio gets the GOP nomination.

Meek has no more a shot of beating Rubio than he does Crist.

I doubt that. I would still consider Rubio to be the clear favorite over Meek though.

[Mr. Morden]

As I mentioned a few months ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=102432.0

there might not be any black governors either.  I think it largely comes down to whether Deval Patrick can win reelection.

[Bo]

Where's the poll?

As for your question, I assume you mean immediately after, in which case I say No.

[TheGlobalizer]

Unlikely.  Ford isn't going anywhere. The guy has turned himself into a complete joke. Meek might have an outside shot though, especially if Rubio gets the GOP nomination.

As liberal as I am, I don't think Democrats should underestimate Rubio. He may be very right-wing, but he's a very solid campaigner, comes across as quite moderate, and will have heavy support from both conservatives and the Cuban community. And it's likely to be a Republican year, in a Republican-leaning state.

I agree.  Some recent polls have actually shown Rubio with better head-to-head numbers than Crist.  Plus, he's whip-smart, and that makes getting traction easier even if you're a bit more extreme on the issues.

[redcommander]

I think once Hutchison wins in Texas, Williams would have a great shot at winning her seat.

[Bo]

I think once Hutchison wins in Texas, Williams would have a great shot at winning her seat.

Hutchison might not win. The teabaggers don't like her.

[Eraserhead]

I think once Hutchison wins in Texas, Williams would have a great shot at winning her seat.

Hutchison might not win. The teabaggers don't like her.

It looks like she almost certainly won't win, actually.

[pragmatic liberal]

I think once Hutchison wins in Texas, Williams would have a great shot at winning her seat.

Hutchison might not win. The teabaggers don't like her.

It looks like she almost certainly won't win, actually.

She still claims she plans to resign and retire, though, even if she loses the primary. We'll see. She's already reneged on earlier pledges to step down, so it wouldn't shock me if she stayed on until 2012.

If she does resign, than Williams' chances probably depend on whether Perry appoints him. If he does, then he has a good shot at winning the special election. Otherwise, it may be hard for him to win against what will be a very crowded field.

[redcommander]

I think once Hutchison wins in Texas, Williams would have a great shot at winning her seat.

Hutchison might not win. The teabaggers don't like her.

It looks like she almost certainly won't win, actually.

She's not doing as well as she was in polling, but she still has time to rebound. I personally can't stand Perry and want him to leave the Governor's office already. Isn't this his fourth time running for the job?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Michael Williams has the endorsement of Gingrich and DeMint. I think his chances are pretty good.

[Gustaf]

I thought Harold Ford wanted to be Tennessee senator?

[AndrewTX]

The answer is 7. 7 Black Senators.

[Bo]

I thought Harold Ford wanted to be Tennessee senator?

He did, but he lost. Now he's running in New York, but he will likely lose as well.

[Smash255]

I thought Harold Ford wanted to be Tennessee senator?

He ran for Senate in Tennessee in 2006 (he was a Congressman from the Memphis area) and lost 51-48.  Shortly after his loss he moved to NYC, and has lived there for a few years (he got married in 08, and his wife works in NYC in the fashion industry).  Over the past few months he has expressed interest in a Primary challenge against Gillibrand.

[Psychic Octopus]

Probably not.