MO: Rasmussen: Carnahan loses lead to Blunt

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Missouri Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-1-19

Summary: D: 43%, R: 49%, I: 3%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Told you this would happen. The environment will save Missouri for us.

[Ronnie]

Nice

[ajc0918]

Nice

[SvenssonRS]

I don't think it'll last. Even in this climate, Roy Blunt is too wingnut even for Missouri.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't think it'll last. Even in this climate, Roy Blunt is too wingnut even for Missouri.

Not really. Missouri is more conservative then people think.

[SvenssonRS]

I don't think it'll last. Even in this climate, Roy Blunt is too wingnut even for Missouri.

Not really. Missouri is more conservative then people think.

Well, I knew it was conservative enough, but I was under the impression that it wasn't Oklahoma. Frankly, that's one of the few places I'd ever expect Blunt to have a chance at.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Missouri has a history of close Senate elections. That's why this seems to be the only seat the Dems have a chance at picking up now.

[auburntiger]

I don't think it'll last. Even in this climate, Roy Blunt is too wingnut even for Missouri.

Not really. Missouri is more conservative then people think.

Well, I knew it was conservative enough, but I was under the impression that it wasn't Oklahoma. Frankly, that's one of the few places I'd ever expect Blunt to have a chance at.

outside of Kansas City and St. Louis it is, give or take a few counties like Boone and St. Genevieve

[Eraserhead]

I think it'll remain pretty close. I'd probably bet on Blunt at this point though.

[RRusso1982]

The dynamics of the race favor Blunt.  He's a conservative running in a conservative state in a Republican year

[HAnnA MArin County]

I thought Rasmussen wasn't really a credible pollster since it's commissioned by Fox News?

The campaign between Robin Carnahan and Roy Blunt hasn't actually started yet, and while I'm pretty sure he'll receive the GOP nomination, he's being primaried by State Senator Chuck Purgason (R-Caulfield) so that may bloody him up a bit before he faces Carnahan, whom I believe still has the advantage. While it's certainly shaping up to be a bad political climate for Democrats, Missouri is the best chance Democrats have at picking up a seat. Robin is a popular politician who was reelected Secretary of State in 2008 with the most votes ever cast for a single candidate in the state's history, winning all but 10 of Missouri's 114 counties (most of these 10 were in Southwest Missouri too - Roy Blunt's stomping grounds, coincidentally).

Nepotism is going to play a big role in this race, meaning that the candidates' last names are going to be their strengths/weaknesses for Robin and Roy, respectively. I'm sure I don't need to tell you all that her father Mel was a very popular Governor of Missouri and Blunt's son Matt was the second least popular Governor in the nation (only in front of Ernie Fletcher).

Roy is too much of a wing nut for the state, whereas Robin's centrist image fits the state well. As I predicted, she's already beginning to distance herself from Obama by denouncing his latest budget/deficit plan.

It's going to be a close race, as most all elections in Missouri are, but if looking to the 2006 Senate race between Jim Talent and Claire McCaskill is any indication, Robin cannot simply rely upon St. Louis and Kansas City to deliver for her, which I'm sure she knows. She clearly has appeal in the rural areas, which is good for any Democrat, so if she's able to rack up the margins in the Bootheel and the Lead Belt, she may be able to overcome Blunt's strong margins in Southwest Missouri. She'll also need to hope for and court the younger vote, particularly in Boone County (Columbia - home of Mizzou), as well as the suburban vote.