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Author Topic: NatJou Insiders Poll: Romney seen as best GOP candidate & most likely to win nom  (Read 608 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: January 21, 2010, 06:49:58 pm »

OK, this is actually two weeks old, but I didn't see it when it came out, as I was traveling at the time.  This is National Journal's "Insiders Poll", where they survey 100 Democratic and 100 Republican bigwigs, to ask for their take on future presidential elections.

According to this, "Democratic insiders" view Romney as the GOP's strongest 2012 candidate, followed by Thune in 2nd and Pawlenty in 3rd.  "Republican insiders", OTOH, were asked who they think is actually most likely to win the nomination:  Romney in 1st, Pawlenty 2nd, Thune 3rd.


Q: Who would be the Republicans' strongest presidential nominee in 2012?

Democrats (111 votes)

1. Mitt Romney 29 percent
2. John Thune 15 percent
3. Tim Pawlenty 13 percent
4. Mitch Daniels 11 percent
5. Newt Gingrich 6 percent
6. Haley Barbour 5 percent
6. Jeb Bush 5 percent
8. Mike Huckabee 3 percent
8. Bobby Jindal 3 percent
8. Sarah Palin 3 percent

Q: Please rank the top five candidates, 1 through 5, in terms of who you think is most likely to capture the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Republicans (109 votes)

Rank/Candidate/Insiders Index*
1. Mitt Romney 81
2. Tim Pawlenty 46
3. John Thune 38
4. Haley Barbour 28
5. Mitch Daniels 25
5. Sarah Palin 25
7. Newt Gingrich 14
7. Mike Huckabee 14
9. Jeb Bush 6
10. Bobby Jindal 5

*METHODOLOGY: All 127 Republicans among National Journal's Political Insiders were asked to name and rank the top five contenders for their party's 2012 presidential nomination; 109 participated. In tallying the rankings, a first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote 4 points, and so on. The Insiders Index reflects the percentage of points that each contender received out of the maximum possible. For example, Mitt Romney scored an Index rating of 81, meaning he received 81 percent of the possible 545 points, the number he would have had if all 109 participants had ranked him first.

Additional info on GOP insiders' responses:

Behind the Rankings

Percent of first-place votes
Ronmey 62%
Thune 12%
Pawlenty 9%
Barbour 6%
Others 11%

Percent of second-place votes

Pawlenty 22%
Romney 18%
Thune 15%
Barbour 13%
Palin 9%
Daniels 8%
Gingrich 6%
Others 9%

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