Party control over redistricting

[Kevinstat]

Maine and NH could both go to split control this year.  NH is less likely to do so than Maine though.

I don't think it will have any impact on who wins there, though, unlike in some other states.

Maine has a 2/3 vote requirement to pass a redistricting plan, although for congressional and county commissioner redistricting that requirement is statutory and can be "notwithstood" or even repealed by legislation adopting a plan.  The Democrats considered doing that in 2003 but feared the Republicans would withdraw support from the concensus State House redistricting plan if they did, so they let the Maine Supreme Judicial Court draw the lines.

I remember reading (and hearing on a New Hampshire radio debate on a constitutional amendment "reauthorizing" and regulating the use of floterial districts) that redistricting broke down on party lines in 2001/2 and 2003/4 (the courts drew a State House plan in 2001/2 and the Republican Legislature passed and presumably the then-Republican Governor signed a law adopting another plan in 2003/4; Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen (sp?) had a veto in 2001/2).  Like Maine, however, New Hampshire has only two congressional districts and a history of modest changes in the lines (goving back much further than Maine, perhaps in part because it has had only two U.S. House seats for much longer) so control of state government might not matter so much in terms of congressional redistricting.  I think legislative redistricting in New Hampshire is a different story.

[Torie]

California has some complicated commission with equal numbers of registered Democrats and registered Republicans.

Anyways, yes, those PA, OH, and MI governor races are important. If the Democrat wins, they can block some extreme Republican gerrymander. The main reason that the Republicans have the legislature in those states is their gerrymander.

The commission only draws state legislative district lines, not congressional ones. So the GOP needs to hold the governorship, to effect split party control of the process. Whitman I think has a reasonable chance with her deep pockets, and because I don't think Brown is well positioned to run in an environment where the state is effectively BK.

[Torie]

CA will be using a nonpartisan commission for the 2010 cycle. Prop 11 passed in 2008.

I read somewhere that, that only dealt with the State legislature. And it said that if it had dealt with US House seats Pelosi would have mobilized millions to defeat it.


The GOP should back non-partisan redistricting reform. Historically the Democrats have dominated the process, only in 2002 did the GOP dominate by controlling the big states.

I stand corrected, I was getting ahead of myself. It is likely, however, that there will be an initiative in 2010 to give congressional redistricting to the now created commission. Given that the commission now exists and if the electorate is angry with the status quo, then I think that such an initiative would stand a good chance of passage.

Cool. Now I really want to get on it.

[timmer123]

Reps will control OK, TN, PA and IN after the '10 election, and maybe OH.  Move Colorado to split. Perhaps MN and NH too.

Dems control RI, ME, CT, MA and it matters not one bit.  Nothing to lose in those states for Republicans.  WV and AR law prohibits county spliting, so no gerrymandering there.  Dems cannot possibly squeeze another seat from NC, they are already overrepresented there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota is split only if the GOP retains the governorship. They have no chance at either house of the legislature. I expect they'll gain, but only because they are already so low they can't go any further.

[HAnnA MArin County]

This is the first year since I became interested in politics that the concept of redistricting has been used. I'm still a little confused on the process, so if anyone could clarify for me, I'd appreciate it. I just have a couple questions.

First, when is the redistricting going to take place? In November 2010, representatives will still be elected from the current congressional districts, right? I'm assuming they will go into effect for the 113th Congress (2013-2015)? Also, does the redistricting process take place on the same day (do all the state legislatures do it on the same day)? I guess the question I'm asking is when will we know the new congressional districts?

Also, is there any data out there right now as to what states will gain/lose seats and which ones will stay the same? Someone on here (believe his name is muon2) has a neat little diagram as his signature on here; was just wondering how people come up with that. I know it's based upon population but was just curious if there's a website out there that shows the forecast/most likely seats/district each state will have.

Sorry for the confusing questions and thank you to anyone who answers them for me

[muon2]

This is the first year since I became interested in politics that the concept of redistricting has been used. I'm still a little confused on the process, so if anyone could clarify for me, I'd appreciate it. I just have a couple questions.

First, when is the redistricting going to take place? In November 2010, representatives will still be elected from the current congressional districts, right? I'm assuming they will go into effect for the 113th Congress (2013-2015)? Also, does the redistricting process take place on the same day (do all the state legislatures do it on the same day)? I guess the question I'm asking is when will we know the new congressional districts?

Also, is there any data out there right now as to what states will gain/lose seats and which ones will stay the same? Someone on here (believe his name is muon2) has a neat little diagram as his signature on here; was just wondering how people come up with that. I know it's based upon population but was just curious if there's a website out there that shows the forecast/most likely seats/district each state will have.

Sorry for the confusing questions and thank you to anyone who answers them for me

I'll take the second part of the questions first. Reapportionment is the process that sets the number of seats each state will have for the next decade. It's based on the Census info collected this spring and will be made public before Dec 31. The map in my signature is one projection of which states will change based on Census Bureau estimates from July 2009. If you follow the link in the signature you can read more about the methodology, as well as see an alternate calculation I made with slightly different assumptions about population growth in 2009.

In the first three months of 2011 the Census Bureau will release detailed data down to the block with total population, age and racial/ethnic makeup. This is the redistricting data set that is the basis for all new districts from Congress down to local wards. Most states will draw their districts during 2011 to be ready for the 2012 primaries.

The states vary widely on the means to draw Congressional districts. Most do it as a matter of statute from the legislature, signed by the governor. There are a number of states that use independent commissions, and many create commissions to deal with failure by the legislature. Quite a few new maps will end up in the courts, and if the past cycles are repeated at least a couple will go all the way to the SCOTUS and result in new interpretations that everyone will be using in 2021.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The states that have state legislative seats up in 2011 (Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana and New Jersey) will likely have their maps done first. Just as a guess.

[muon2]

The states that have state legislative seats up in 2011 (Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana and New Jersey) will likely have their maps done first. Just as a guess.

IL will also act quickly. There is a constitutional requirement for the legislature to act by June 30 on legislative districts or a commission is convened. The legislature needs to act by May 31, 2011 on any congressional map or the vote will require supermajorities in both chambers. Petitions for the new seats are scheduled to begin circulating in Aug 2011, so that creates additional pressure to move quickly.

[timmer123]

This is the first year since I became interested in politics that the concept of redistricting has been used. I'm still a little confused on the process, so if anyone could clarify for me, I'd appreciate it. I just have a couple questions.

First, when is the redistricting going to take place? In November 2010, representatives will still be elected from the current congressional districts, right? I'm assuming they will go into effect for the 113th Congress (2013-2015)? Also, does the redistricting process take place on the same day (do all the state legislatures do it on the same day)? I guess the question I'm asking is when will we know the new congressional districts?

Also, is there any data out there right now as to what states will gain/lose seats and which ones will stay the same? Someone on here (believe his name is muon2) has a neat little diagram as his signature on here; was just wondering how people come up with that. I know it's based upon population but was just curious if there's a website out there that shows the forecast/most likely seats/district each state will have.

Sorry for the confusing questions and thank you to anyone who answers them for me

Hillary for President?  Lord have mercy.  Please become un-interested in politics.


Redistricting is the process of re-drawing the US House of Representatives districts in each state that has at least 2 seats.  Since last redistricting in 2001 the populations have changed and they need to be redrawn so that each district has approx. the same number of people again.  The number of seats each state has in released in Dec.  Some states will lose seats, some will gain because of state-by-state pop. changes.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The states that have state legislative seats up in 2011 (Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana and New Jersey) will likely have their maps done first. Just as a guess.

The two are very separate processes. New Jersey's state legislative maps were quickly drawn in 1990-91 to prepare for the state elections, but Democrats were unable to use their legislative majority to hammer down a firm congressional map. Once Republicans scored a veto-proof majority in the 1991 elections, there was fear that the GOP would simply pass a new map in January should the Democrats create one during the lame duck session.

That's why then-Governor Florio worked with the GOP to create an independent redistricting commission to create the maps for 1992. And we've had one ever since.

THE
END

[HAnnA MArin County]

Thank you muon2 for answering my question. I'm working for the U.S. Census Bureau so I knew that population had something to do with it. Now I just have one more question for you. I've heard speculation that my state is going to lose a seat, but then I've heard that we are going to keep our current 11 electoral votes. I notice in your map you have us at 11. What's your reasoning behind that? I don't think our population has increased that much. I think we're hovering just below the 6 million mark. Thanks again.

[nhmagic]

Reps will control OK, TN, PA and IN after the '10 election, and maybe OH.  Move Colorado to split. Perhaps MN and NH too.

Dems control RI, ME, CT, MA and it matters not one bit.  Nothing to lose in those states for Republicans.  WV and AR law prohibits county spliting, so no gerrymandering there.  Dems cannot possibly squeeze another seat from NC, they are already overrepresented there.

Republicans have an even money bet on split control with increased legislature representation in ME and it would matter if they made CD2 (i think its 2) more republican and Pingree's district more democratic.  NH is going to be difficult because Lynch is on the ticket, but it can be done if they win the state legislature.  Republicans are likely to sweep the senate race and the two house races there.  Dems have a slight chance of having some authority in AZ if Goddard wins and picks the "independent commission" - I think that will be a big win because we are getting 2 seats next apportionment. 

[timmer123]

Reps will control OK, TN, PA and IN after the '10 election, and maybe OH.  Move Colorado to split. Perhaps MN and NH too.

Dems control RI, ME, CT, MA and it matters not one bit.  Nothing to lose in those states for Republicans.  WV and AR law prohibits county spliting, so no gerrymandering there.  Dems cannot possibly squeeze another seat from NC, they are already overrepresented there.

Republicans have an even money bet on split control with increased legislature representation in ME and it would matter if they made CD2 (i think its 2) more republican and Pingree's district more democratic.  NH is going to be difficult because Lynch is on the ticket, but it can be done if they win the state legislature.  Republicans are likely to sweep the senate race and the two house races there.  Dems have a slight chance of having some authority in AZ if Goddard wins and picks the "independent commission" - I think that will be a big win because we are getting 2 seats next apportionment. 

Factually you are correct.  My point is that most states to be controlled by Dems during 2011 redistricting are unimportant.  We have NOTHING to lose in HI, NM, VT, RI, MA, CT and ME.  And for now Dems are overrepresented in OR, NC, AR and WV as it is.

Its possible we gain some, but that remains to be seem.  I don't know off the cuff what the margins are in the ME legislature, but ME does not redistrict until 2013 so it wont matter yet.  NH's legislature is volatile, but I think we can retake it due to anti-Democrats mood there.

[Bo]

The Dems should be able to reverse several horrenous Republican gerrymanders throughout the U.S.

[timmer123]

The Dems should be able to reverse several horrenous Republican gerrymanders throughout the U.S.

Hahah. The irony is that Republicans will likely control Pennsylvania,the most "horrendous" Republican gerrymander from 2001.

Don't try to go to virtuous there, buddy.  BOTH parties are offenders.

DEM gerrymandering in Maryland, Massachusetts, Georgia and Illinois was worse.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Dems should be able to reverse several horrenous Republican gerrymanders throughout the U.S.

Hahah. The irony is that Republicans will likely control Pennsylvania,the most "horrendous" Republican gerrymander from 2001.

Don't try to go to virtuous there, buddy.  BOTH parties are offenders.

DEM gerrymandering in Maryland, Massachusetts, Georgia and Illinois was worse.

Illinois was a bipartisan incumbent protection map. Republicans controlled the Illinois Senate up till 2004.

[minionofmidas]

...and buttugly as the Massachusetts map is, partisan control had nothing to do with it.

[Brittain33]

Illinois was a bipartisan incumbent protection map. Republicans controlled the Illinois Senate up till 2004.

Not only that, but it froze in place Republican gains at a high-water mark.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And Georgia backfired anyway, and was reversed mid-decade. Really the only solidly benefitial Dem gerrymander was Maryland, and that only earned two seats, one of which probably would've fell anyway.

[Brittain33]

And Georgia backfired anyway, and was reversed mid-decade. Really the only solidly benefitial Dem gerrymander was Maryland, and that only earned two seats, one of which probably would've fell anyway.

The weirdest outcome for a Dem gerrymander has to have been Alabama. Montgomery was split up so all the Democratic precincts would make the 3rd competitive, leaving the 2nd solidly Republican.

[timmer123]

And Georgia backfired anyway, and was reversed mid-decade. Really the only solidly benefitial Dem gerrymander was Maryland, and that only earned two seats, one of which probably would've fell anyway.

MD-02, in which I live, would not have elected a Democrat had Parris Glendening and the imperial legislature not drawn a distasteful seat meant for their buddy Dutch Ruppersburger.
MD-08 would have gone Dem.

Knowing the state of Maryland, I'd have to say that the Maryland map is THE WORST gerrymander from 2001.

Whomever drew Illinois, it was pathetic.  A legitimate map in Ill. would yield 9 Rep seats anyway.  It's not our problem ALL the Dems are concentrated in Chicago.

And Massachusetts IS a very, very bad gerrymandering. Those districts snake all over the state on purpose so not one Republican is elected.

[Conservative frontier]

I support gerrymandering. Kinda.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Michigan looks right.

Republicans will probably win the Gubernatorial spot.  Democrats control the House by a wide margin.  I don't see the Republicans losing the Senate.

[Хahar 🤔]

And Massachusetts IS a very, very bad gerrymandering. Those districts snake all over the state on purpose so not one Republican is elected.

Kindly explain how a Republican is elected from that.