Party control over redistricting

[muon2]

CA will be using a nonpartisan commission for the 2010 cycle. Prop 11 passed in 2008.

[muon2]

CA will be using a nonpartisan commission for the 2010 cycle. Prop 11 passed in 2008.

I read somewhere that, that only dealt with the State legislature. And it said that if it had dealt with US House seats Pelosi would have mobilized millions to defeat it.


The GOP should back non-partisan redistricting reform. Historically the Democrats have dominated the process, only in 2002 did the GOP dominate by controlling the big states.

I stand corrected, I was getting ahead of myself. It is likely, however, that there will be an initiative in 2010 to give congressional redistricting to the now created commission. Given that the commission now exists and if the electorate is angry with the status quo, then I think that such an initiative would stand a good chance of passage.

[muon2]

This is the first year since I became interested in politics that the concept of redistricting has been used. I'm still a little confused on the process, so if anyone could clarify for me, I'd appreciate it. I just have a couple questions.

First, when is the redistricting going to take place? In November 2010, representatives will still be elected from the current congressional districts, right? I'm assuming they will go into effect for the 113th Congress (2013-2015)? Also, does the redistricting process take place on the same day (do all the state legislatures do it on the same day)? I guess the question I'm asking is when will we know the new congressional districts?

Also, is there any data out there right now as to what states will gain/lose seats and which ones will stay the same? Someone on here (believe his name is muon2) has a neat little diagram as his signature on here; was just wondering how people come up with that. I know it's based upon population but was just curious if there's a website out there that shows the forecast/most likely seats/district each state will have.

Sorry for the confusing questions and thank you to anyone who answers them for me

I'll take the second part of the questions first. Reapportionment is the process that sets the number of seats each state will have for the next decade. It's based on the Census info collected this spring and will be made public before Dec 31. The map in my signature is one projection of which states will change based on Census Bureau estimates from July 2009. If you follow the link in the signature you can read more about the methodology, as well as see an alternate calculation I made with slightly different assumptions about population growth in 2009.

In the first three months of 2011 the Census Bureau will release detailed data down to the block with total population, age and racial/ethnic makeup. This is the redistricting data set that is the basis for all new districts from Congress down to local wards. Most states will draw their districts during 2011 to be ready for the 2012 primaries.

The states vary widely on the means to draw Congressional districts. Most do it as a matter of statute from the legislature, signed by the governor. There are a number of states that use independent commissions, and many create commissions to deal with failure by the legislature. Quite a few new maps will end up in the courts, and if the past cycles are repeated at least a couple will go all the way to the SCOTUS and result in new interpretations that everyone will be using in 2021.

[muon2]

The states that have state legislative seats up in 2011 (Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana and New Jersey) will likely have their maps done first. Just as a guess.

IL will also act quickly. There is a constitutional requirement for the legislature to act by June 30 on legislative districts or a commission is convened. The legislature needs to act by May 31, 2011 on any congressional map or the vote will require supermajorities in both chambers. Petitions for the new seats are scheduled to begin circulating in Aug 2011, so that creates additional pressure to move quickly.

[muon2]

And Massachusetts IS a very, very bad gerrymandering. Those districts snake all over the state on purpose so not one Republican is elected.

Kindly explain how a Republican is elected from that.

You know full well that Presidential and Congressional voting patterns are quite detached from one another.

Republicans typically do well in Plymouth/Barnstable counties.  If the likes were not too horribly skewed, a Republican could be elected to the house from that area.

Actually, the 10th CD that includes Barnstable, the Islands and most of the population from Plymouth is not that badly drawn compared to some of the other MA districts. The GOP would probably want to drop Quincy and pick up more of the small towns in Plymouth while avoiding Brockton, but it's hard to complain too much about the district.



It will be interesting to see what happens with the district when MA loses a seat next year. There's enough growth on the South Shore to leave it much the same, but that leaves the GOP with an opening. Will the Dems swing the district west to New Bedford and Fall River to keep it D?