Minnesota Gubernatorial thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I figured I'll make one since the caucus is tomorrow and the campaign begins.

I've done some phonebanking for Rybak. I think Snowguy supports Rukavina.

Take Action Minnesota, one of the state's key progressive groups, has announced its endorsements, backing three candidates. Rybak won the first vote, Margaret Anderson Kelliher came in second, with State Rep Paul Thissen in third. This group actually has strong influence among caucus types so this should be considered a plus for all three. Mark Dayton has announced that he will not compete in the caucus, and has even encourage his supporters not to attend. Matt Entenza also isn't competing. Dayton also just "loaned" his campaign over half a million dollars, though he hasn't much campaigning. Rybak has raised around $150k, but he raised almost $400k during his mayoral campaign last year, and must have a bunch left over as he had no serious opposition.

We'll see what happens tomorrow.

[Lief 🗽]

Do the caucuses decide who goes to the party convention (which, iirc, then makes an endorsement and then also sometimes a primary happens)? Minnesota elections are strange...

[ilikeverin]

Do the caucuses decide who goes to the party convention (which, iirc, then makes an endorsement and then also sometimes a primary happens)? Minnesota elections are strange...

It goes precinct caucuses->state senate district caucuses->(congressional and state caucuses).  At the state caucus is where the party endorsements are made.  There is also a primary election that's held in September regardless of the state convention results, though usually everyone withdraws except for the person who is endorsed at the state convention.

I'm bummed that I'm at college   And my parents are moving out of Minnesota before Election Day this year, anyhow, so I couldn't really have promised to stick around, anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Verin described it accurately. And I am once again a delegate to my State Senate caucus, though in my precinct that's not hard, you basically just have to volunteer. We actually had more delegate spots than people attending.

Just got back from the Rybak HQ's party. We appear to have a narrow lead so far:
http://caucusresults.sos.state.mn.us/ElecRslts.asp?M=PTY&PtyCd=DFL

Of course that's just a straw poll. The important thing is who got delegates elected, and the second preferences of those behind.

Marty Seifert has all but won the GOP nomination it appears though:
http://caucusresults.sos.state.mn.us/ElecRslts.asp?M=PTY&PtyCd=R

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The results are still trickling in at a snail's pace, but Rybak has basically won. His margin of lead over Kelliher is slowly increasing and based on what's out, I don't see how she can overtake him. Of course it's just a straw poll and he still only has 21%, so there's a long way to go. Next stop: District conventions. I am a delegate at mine February 27th. Gaertner by the way has announced that she'll run in the primary too, though with the straw poll results and her fundraising, one wonders why she even bothers anymore. She's a non-factor now. So we're likely seeing Dayton vs. Entenza vs. Gaertner vs. convention winner (Either Rybak or Kelliher most likely) vs. jokes as the primary.

BTW as far as Dayton's campaign goes, he recently spent more on fundraising than he raised through that: http://www.minnesotademocratsexposed.com/2010/02/02/daytons-fundraising-failure/#more-11381

Please note that this is an awful, AWFUL right wing site full of more lies, half-truths, despicable spin and distortions than J. J.'s posting history and I feel dirty just linking to it, (please note the name instead of something like "Minnesota Conservative Report" to boot.) and I only am due to lack of another source. But still, telling.

On the GOP side, Seifert probably has 3:1 odds now. Emmer can't be ruled out though, conventions could swing his way, and he has a strong geographical base. Emmer basically won the metro and some of the more population areas, Seifert won greater Minnesota. Emmer is from the exurbs, Seifert from the far southwest corner, so it kind of make sense. Both are staunch conservatives, Seifert is more of a bland establishment type though like Pawlenty, while Emmer is a hardcore teabagger activist type. Kind of makes sense with their geographic strengths then. Hann won his State Senate district, but did so badly elsewhere he might as well drop out and from what I hear barely ran a campaign, making me wonder why he even declared. Some maps by the way: http://lukehellier.posterous.com/republican-straw-poll-results-by-bpou

(It's another right wing site, but not one as vile as the one above.)

Rumors are spreading that Seifert was caught on talk radio talking about the bridge collapse as "just a bad traffic accident" and saying that the survivors and those injured should "quit whining" about compensation. If that turns out to be true and surfaces...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good news for the DFL: The Independence Party frontrunner is a former Republican. Apparently he was a radio talk show host. It'd be nice for the IP to cost the GOP an election for a change.

[true liberty]

Good news for the DFL: The Independence Party frontrunner is a former Republican. Apparently he was a radio talk show host. It'd be nice for the IP to cost the GOP an election for a change.

odd considering that if the republicans ran norm coleman theyd have a former democrat

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Two notable developments:

1-Almost all of the caucus results are in, and Rybak has won.
2-Kelley has dropped out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tentative delegate estimates from conventions so far:

Rybak: 215
Kelliher: 169
Marty: 65
Rukavina: 46
Thissen: 41
Bakk: 36
Entenza: 35

Of course Kelliher leads in superdelegtes, she has 45. Rybak doesn't have any as of now. Luckily superdelegates make up a much smaller portion of total delegates than they do nationally.

[Kevinstat]

Didn't Humphrey the younger win the DFL Gubernatorial nomination in 1998 after losing the convention nod to Freeman the younger?  And I don't think Mark Dayton won the DFL U.S. Senate nomination in 2000.  How many viable candidates honor the convention result in Minnesota nowadays?  And how big an advantage does the convention winner have if there is a primary?  Are some of these answers different for the two major parties?

To sum all this up, do Rybak and/or Seifert have their party's nominations basically sewn up now?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Didn't Humphrey the younger win the DFL Gubernatorial nomination in 1998 after losing the convention nod to Freeman the younger?  And I don't think Mark Dayton won the DFL U.S. Senate nomination in 2000.

Not sure on the former, but Dayton didn't win the endorsement in 2000. It went to Jerry Janezich, a state senator from the Iron Range, who it turned out had little enthusiasm outside of the Iron Range, hence losing the primary.  

How many viable candidates honor the convention result in Minnesota nowadays?

Most do.

And how big an advantage does the convention winner have if there is a primary?

They get the party's funding and greater access to their databases. Usually a big plus. Keith Ellison wouldn't have won the primary without the endorsement.

The last candidate to win the primary without the endorsement was Lori Swanson for Attorney General, but that barely counts because of the circumstances (the endorsement winner Entenza was running unopposed, and then dropped out after it was discovered he paid a private investigator around $10k to investigate Mike Hatch. This was after the convention. They had to hold some sort of emergency convention.) Before that it was Dayton, who just spent tons of cash against a weak endorsement winner.

Are some of these answers different for the two major parties?

Not really.

To sum all this up, do Rybak and/or Seifert have their party's nominations basically sewn up now?

No, not at all. Rybak has probably a 50/50 chance, but he isn't guaranteed to beat Kelliher at the convention, and neither one is unfortunately guaranteed to beat Dayton in the primary (I'd call either one the favorite though over him, just because of how much old news the guy is and his Senate record.) Seifert has probably at least an 80% chance though.

[JSojourner]

BRTD,

Isn't Dayton just a little odd?  I might be thinking of someone else.

What is it about Rybak that you like?  Snow, tell me about your guy.

I really respect the opinions of all our Atlas Minnesotans.  I wonder where Fritz is coming down on this?

[LastMcGovernite]

Yeah, Minnesota politics are fascinating.

Although I don't profess expertise, I'm rooting for Rybak-- in fact, I was hoping he would be Obama's Secretary of Transportation a year or two ago.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BRTD,

Isn't Dayton just a little odd?  I might be thinking of someone else.

No you're probably thinking of him. Guy closed his DC office over a terror threat memo.

What is it about Rybak that you like?

He's solidly liberal on the issues and has been a great mayor. Very likable, affable guy. He'd play better in rural areas than you'd expect, since he's far more charismatic than someone as boring as Seifert and despite being a solid liberal doesn't come across as a pure ideologue like some of his opponents (like Margaret Anderson Kelliher, though I do like her as well.) He was involved in anti-Iraq War activism, and chaired Obama's Minnesota campaign. Always been on the right side of the issues. Plus he has a great relationship with the Minneapolis entertainment district (including the strip clubs!) and is noted for having crowdsurfed at First Avenue in 2005. Got to love a guy like that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well Seifert has chosen his running mate, Anoka county commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah.

Seems like an odd choice at first, a county commissioner? But makes more sense when you think about it. She fits the criteria that every single Lt. Gov. candidate for a male candidate be a woman, always and unlike a state legislator or political figure doesn't have much of an attackable track record, county commissions only deal with boring stuff. And btw she's a rather boring white woman, don't know what's with the last name, maybe she married an Indian.

What is more notable is that Seifert chose a running mate so early. This probably hints that he's taking it past the convention even if he loses. There's little point in choosing a running mate if you're not going to be on the ballot, especially a no-name who generates little of a news cycle.

In other news, the Senate DFL pulled a brilliant move by passing a House bill to prolong the state's General Assistance Medical Care program without amendments, eliminating need for a conference committee. It went straight to Pawlenty's desk while he was at CPAC, giving him the option of vetoing it from afar or taking no action and letting it become law. He vetoed it. The bill passed the House 125-9, but it's debatable if we can get the three House Republicans needed to actually pass it since they tend to follow orders a lot and all moderates have been wiped out. But if Seifert or Emmer is looking for some moderate credentials, here you go. Overriding in the Senate is all but guaranteed due to the DFL supermajority.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My convention was yesterday. Our delegate allotment:

Kelliher/Health Care - 1
Kelliher/Urban Farming - 2
Rybak/ReNew.mn - 1 (A local progressive group. They've endorsed Rybak, Kelliher and Thissen, basically calling on their supporters to support one as their first choice and go to the next two as their second choice.)
Rybak/Environment and Higher Education - 2 (my subcaucus. A merger of 4 Rybak subcaucuses, plus the other Rybak subcaucus sent us some people to ensure maximum delegates, aka giving us 2 while still keeping them one. The merged subcaucuses were Rybak/DFL Activists [my original subcaucus], Rybak/Green Mass Transit, Rybak/Save the Planet and Rybak/Higher Education)
Marty/Health Care - 2
Thissen/ReNew.mn - 1
Uncomitted/Repeal Corporate Personhood - 3
Uncomitted/Green Jobs - 2
Uncomitted/Elect a DFL Governor - 3 (I suspect that some strategic Rybak and Kelliher supporters inflated this caucus with the intent of electing their supporters as "Uncommitted" delegates.)

Marty by the way, is probably the most liberal candidate running, he's made single-payer health care and legalization of full gay marriage the cornerstones of his campaign. He is a great guy, but the fact that he was "shafted" by ReNew.mn might show a bit more pragmatism on behalf of the activists. I think a lot of people might be scared by his 1994 run and results.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

On the GOP side, I'm downgrading my prediction from Seifert with an 80% chance to Seifert with a 66.666...% chance. Current delegate numbers are neck and neck, one estimation shows Emmer slightly ahead. Seifert did manage to pick up the endorsement of David Hann, that State Senator who basically ran a Fred Thompson-esque joke of a campaign and got 5% in the straw poll, but I don't see that amounting to much.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The convention here sent dedicated delegates only to Tom Rukavina.  The rest were uncommitted.  Still, Rukavina got a good chunk.

Not surprising, since he was the stronger northern MN candidate.

I sincerely hope the MNGop nominates Emmer.  A suburban ultra-capitalist Republican?  He'd get slaughtered outstate... even by a liberal city guy like Rybak.

Not that Seifert is any better:  "My solution for Minnesota is to downsize government and let the corporations take over delivering government services."

Everybody in MN knows that the government is the 2nd worse deliverer of government services... just ahead of corporations.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bakk dropped out too. That obviously helps Rukavina. I still don't think he has much of a chance though, better chance at swaying the eventual nominee between Rybak and Kelliher. I don't see anyone else with a good shot at the endorsement.

I agree that Seifert and Emmer both are pretty lousy candidates. Both offer nothing but right wing talking points and are basically Pawlenty without charisma and the charm he has over some suburbanites. Some of them might be scared to vote GOP anyway on the "OMG SOCIALISM" type charges that'll get tossed around, but it's tricky to see either putting together a coalition giving them a majority. We might have a pretty low turnout election though if the nominee is someone like Kelliher, who is kind of the DFL equivalent. I personally don't have a problem with her, but it's tough to see her exciting anyone besides liberal Democrats.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Bakk dropped out too. That obviously helps Rukavina. I still don't think he has much of a chance though, better chance at swaying the eventual nominee between Rybak and Kelliher. I don't see anyone else with a good shot at the endorsement.

I agree that Seifert and Emmer both are pretty lousy candidates. Both offer nothing but right wing talking points and are basically Pawlenty without charisma and the charm he has over some suburbanites. Some of them might be scared to vote GOP anyway on the "OMG SOCIALISM" type charges that'll get tossed around, but it's tricky to see either putting together a coalition giving them a majority. We might have a pretty low turnout election though if the nominee is someone like Kelliher, who is kind of the DFL equivalent. I personally don't have a problem with her, but it's tough to see her exciting anyone besides liberal Democrats.

I can see Mak kinda being the next Jon Marty.  The difference is that Emmer and Seifert are now Arne Carlson either.. so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah, a Kelliher vs. Seifert or Emmer race means low turnout. It'll be just the bases turning out against each other.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It's a pity Entenza won't win; he has my backing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's a pity Entenza won't win; he has my backing.

Based on what? The main reason no one likes him is what he did in 2006.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good news for Rybak, he just picked up a slew of superdelegate endorsements with 7 legislators (including my old State Senator from Mankato, woohoo!) He's up to 9 now, which seems pretty weak compared to Kelliher's 46 and even longshot Bakk had double that at 18 before dropping out, but impressive considering that caucus night he had 0. The process obviously tilts toward legislators with that...the good news is that superdelegates do make up a lesser share of the total pool than at the national convention.

[xavier110]

Is it just me, or does the name R.T. Rybak sound like the name of a ringleader at a circus?  And what's with the use of initials?  That is so 1910s.

Well if your name was Robot Tigger Rybak and you were running for office...