Patrick Kennedy in trouble?
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Author Topic: Patrick Kennedy in trouble?  (Read 2886 times)
redcommander
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« on: February 05, 2010, 02:03:10 PM »
« edited: February 05, 2010, 02:15:40 PM by redcommander »

For the first time in over 60 years, no members of the Kennedy family may be in congress.


Poll: Kennedy, Whitehouse support wanes
01:00 AM EST on Friday, February 5, 2010
By Steve Peoples

Journal State House Bureau
PROVIDENCE — John Loughlin is not named in the poll, but he may have fared far better than the elected officials who were.

Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters in the First Congressional District would consider another candidate or vote to replace Loughlin’s opponent, U.S. Rep. Patrick J. Kennedy, according to a WPRI-TV, Channel 12 survey released Thursday night.

The poll offers a snapshot of an abysmal political climate for Democrats that could present serious problems for the eight-term incumbent Kennedy, according to pollster Joseph Fleming.

“It looks like it could be a very competitive race, which we haven’t seen in many years,” Fleming said, noting that Election Day is still nine months away. “I think people, right now, are really looking at who’s in office, and they’re considering somebody else.”

Kennedy’s office declined to respond to the WPRI poll, in which 28 percent of respondents from his district said they’d vote to replace the congressman if the election were held today; 31 percent said they’d consider another candidate; while 35 percent said they’d vote to reelect him.

Loughlin was not mentioned in the telephone poll of registered voters, conducted between Jan. 27 and 31 with a margin of error of at least 3.8 percent.

The Republican state representative downplayed the results, released on the same day he formally announced his candidacy. (Fleming said he had no contact with Loughlin and the timing was a coincidence.)

“At the end of the day, the only poll that counts is Nov. 2. You can’t pay too much attention to this,” Loughlin said.

Kennedy may have fared the worst, but none of Rhode Island’s congressional representatives — all Democrats — did particularly well.

Just 33 percent approved of Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse’s job performance, down 11 points from a mid-December Brown University poll.

Fleming said a factor may have been the senator’s controversial December statement that floor opponents of health-care reform were fueled by fanatics, “right-wing militia” and Aryan support groups that hate President Obama.

A spokesman for Whitehouse — who’s not up for reelection until 2012 — declined to comment.

When asked to list their “most important issue,” the majority of respondents (57 percent) cited the economy and jobs. Health-care was a distant second (14 percent), followed by taxes (8 percent), the deficit (8 percent), education (6) and national security (5).

At 51 percent, Mr. Obama’s popularity is virtually unchanged from a Brown University poll in mid-December.

But support for Mr. Obama’s top domestic priority — a national health-care overhaul — has waned considerably. Just 38 percent of respondents favored Washington “health-care reform,” down from 45 percent from December.

Sen. Jack Reed earned favorable ratings from 54 percent of respondents, while 44 percent of Second Congressional District voters approved of Rep. James R. Langevin.

WPRI is expected to release polling data on the governor’s race Friday.

http://www.projo.com/news/politics/content/CHANNEL_12_POLL_02-05-10_D9HBPDA_v16.3cf60e4.html
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2010, 02:12:10 PM »
« Edited: February 05, 2010, 02:31:54 PM by Send in the Clowns »

Kennedy has always been personally unpopular but has never had a problem getting re-elected.

Further comments:

1. poll looks dodgy anyhow. Anyone know what bist WPRI?

2. consider the district, people...
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ajc0918
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« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2010, 02:19:19 PM »

John Loughlin also has over 100K Cash on Hand. It's only 1/4th of what Kennedy has, but still.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2010, 02:25:46 PM »

Though I may not have much of a personal issue with the Kennedy family, I think this may be a welcome change. Political family dynasties, I feel, are never good news.
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Guderian
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« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2010, 02:33:50 PM »

It's now or never if GOP wants to retire Fat, Drunk and Stupid Jr. He could be taken down with a Scott Brown style campaign.
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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2010, 03:35:13 PM »
« Edited: February 06, 2010, 03:06:22 AM by cinyc »

Kennedy has always been personally unpopular but has never had a problem getting re-elected.

Further comments:

1. poll looks dodgy anyhow. Anyone know what bist WPRI?

2. consider the district, people...

WPRI is a TV station.  The poll was conducted by Fleming & Associates.  It's a small sample - 250 - and has an MOE of +/- 6.2%.

The question then becomes: What bist Fleming & Associates?

My answer: off the top of my head, never heard of them.

After research: They're a Rhode Island Pollster who polls for WPRI-TV.  They did an okay, but not great, job polling the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary - they had Clinton up 49-40; she ended up winning 58-40.  They nailed the Obama percentage, but understated Clinton's support.  They didn't poll the general.

Full poll here.

Langevin (RI-2) is in better shape than Kennedy.  42% would reelect him.  35% would consider another candidate.  Only 14% would replace him.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2010, 07:17:41 PM »

He's not going anywhere. Get over it.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2010, 07:34:56 PM »

Puh-lease. The "vote to re-elect, consider someone else" poll question tells you nothing. Show me a head-to-head matchup between Kennedy and the other guy. Quite frankly, if Kennedy goes down, the Democrats will lose 100 seats.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2010, 07:57:52 PM »

Kennedy's seat was held by a Republican prior to him so it's not impossible, especially if his Republican opponent really nails him with some of his embarrassing history and foot-in-mouth incidents.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2010, 10:42:18 PM »

Brown University polling sucks.

In fact, Rhode Island polling sucks in general.  Caveat emptor.
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2010, 11:05:34 PM »

He won a Republican seat in 1994, so he does have winning abilities.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2010, 11:19:35 PM »

I think one of the points isn't that the John guy is going to win, but that there is a pretty good challenger that is well funded in the northeast.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2010, 10:55:03 AM »

Moved to House Election polls,because this is, well, a poll..
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Miles
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« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2010, 11:44:32 PM »

As much as I hate to say it, the Kennedy legacy died with Teddy.
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Badger
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« Reply #14 on: April 10, 2010, 08:50:35 AM »

As much as I hate to say it, the Kennedy legacy died with Teddy.

Welcome to the forum, BTW. Smiley
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #15 on: April 16, 2010, 04:22:42 PM »

     This poll tells us nothing. We've all seen how badly generic polls disagree with matchups of actual candidates in Kentucky this year.
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