Will Latinos Eventually Become A Majority in the U.S.?

[minionofmidas]

The Census definition of "Hispanic" (including South American Whites as well as the Indigenas and Mestizos you usually think of) is purpose-built to be as encompassing as possible. It's also not a racial category, but a separate question. It asks you only if you have Hispanic ancestry, not how much of it. Nor if you speak Spanish.
So... if we're assuming current trends - of intermarriage as well as immigration - to continue, and if we - rather more spuriously - assume people to answer the Census truthfully, and the Census question to not get changed eventually, the answer is "yes but it won't mean a thing".

[minionofmidas]

28 million people over the age of five speak Spanish at home (exclusively or alongside English) - including about three million people who did not identify as "Hispanics" (against 7 millions who speak only English at home but did).

More data on language use and ability to speak English:

http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/briefs/phc-t37/index.html

Although I note the "American-born" in your post... will look a little further.

[minionofmidas]

Of this Census 2000 Spanish speaking population, almost 15 million were Native born. 6 Million arrived in the 90s, 4 Million in the 80s, 800,000 before 1965. 3.8mio were naturalized citizens.

Oh, and of that total Hispanic population of 31 million, 60% (about 18.5 million) were US born. (I think all those figures excluded Puerto Rico, though maybe one table with PR in it got in and messes up the figures.)

Now, what we'd need is a better grip at who these nonhispanic Spanish speakers are. A lot of them are probably lily white first and second generation immigrants from South America. But a lot are also probably people who've learned Spanish in school but are too dumb to grasp the concept of "spoken at home". (And some are people married to Hispanics.)

[minionofmidas]

Now, what we'd need is a better grip at who these nonhispanic Spanish speakers are. A lot of them are probably lily white first and second generation immigrants from South America. But a lot are also probably people who've learned Spanish in school but are too dumb to grasp the concept of "spoken at home". (And some are people married to Hispanics.)

My maternal grandmother was probably an example of the type you're referring to: she was born in the Dominican Republic, but never identified as Hispanic or Latino (though I don't think the latter term existed during her lifetime) even though she spoke Spanish at home her entire life. The fact she was partially of Lebanese origin may have been a factor. Some people just don't want to identify as Latino for whatever reason.

Yeah. Similarly the actress whose image I linked earlier in this thread was born in the US of a mother born in Mexico... but with a French surname... and a father born in Argentina... to parents (her grandparents) born in Denmark. That said Spanish was her mothertongue.

[minionofmidas]

Well, duh. The term isn't used in Latin America full stop.

[minionofmidas]

I checked two boxes on my census form, white and Native American.  That describes my genetic ancestry.  I have no cultural connection to my Native American ancestors

In other words, you lied on your census form.

Because it doesn't ask for "genetic ancestry".