Steve Pearce Vs. Harry Teague, a close race

[Niemeyerite]

PPP's poll has shown Pearce leading Teague 43 - 41%. The race is a pure toss up, but who do you think will win?

I think Teague will win, his approvals are high and he only has to catch hispanic and liberal vote. And in my opinion, 2010 won't be a new 1994, democrats will be in a better shape for october - november.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_225.pdf

[Lief 🗽]

Full PPP poll results for New Mexico's House seats (MoE of 5%):

    Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 45
    Jon Barela (R): 36
    Undecided: 19

    Harry Teague (D-inc): 41
    Steve Pearce (R): 43
    Undecided: 16

    Ben Lujan (D-inc): 40
    Adam Kokesh (R): 32
    Undecided: 28

    Ben Lujan (D-inc): 42
    Tom Mullins (R): 36
    Undecided: 22

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_225.pdf

Lujan's weakness is surprising, but I assume that's in part to do with the fact that his strongest supporters in the district don't speak English.

[ajc0918]

Full PPP poll results for New Mexico's House seats (MoE of 5%):

    Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 45
    Jon Barela (R): 36
    Undecided: 19

    Harry Teague (D-inc): 41
    Steve Pearce (R): 43
    Undecided: 16

    Ben Lujan (D-inc): 40
    Adam Kokesh (R): 32
    Undecided: 28

    Ben Lujan (D-inc): 42
    Tom Mullins (R): 36
    Undecided: 22

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_225.pdf

Lujan's weakness is surprising, but I assume that's in part to do with the fact that his strongest supporters in the district don't speak English.

Barela looks good too, he can still win, but it will obviously be hard.

[SPC]

Looks like Kokesh isn't such a longshot after all.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

An incumbent below 50, is vulnerable, an incumbent below his opponent is in deep sh**t. The district vote for McCain narrowly and 2010 will be a better year then 2008, a year in which our candidate was horrible. I think we will regain this seat.

[CARLHAYDEN]

An incumbent below 50, is vulnerable, an incumbent below his opponent is in deep sh**t. The district vote for McCain narrowly and 2010 will be a better year then 2008, a year in which our candidate was horrible. I think we will regain this seat.

Exactly!

[Rowan]

Looks like Kokesh isn't such a longshot after all.

His favorables are 4/17.

[Niemeyerite]

Teague is popular even with that republican wave. If October is a better month for Ds than February, Teague will win.

[Mr.Phips]

An incumbent below 50, is vulnerable, an incumbent below his opponent is in deep sh**t. The district vote for McCain narrowly and 2010 will be a better year then 2008, a year in which our candidate was horrible. I think we will regain this seat.

Many people probably still think Pearce is the incumbent.  If he was so strong, he would be leading by 10+ points like Chabot in OH-01. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

An incumbent below 50, is vulnerable, an incumbent below his opponent is in deep sh**t. The district vote for McCain narrowly and 2010 will be a better year then 2008, a year in which our candidate was horrible. I think we will regain this seat.

Many people probably still think Pearce is the incumbent.  If he was so strong, he would be leading by 10+ points like Chabot in OH-01. 

Not necessarily. Yes that may exist in some areas but I don't think that is driver force behind Chabot's numbers in OH-01.

[The Age Wave]

I definitely give Pearce the edge on this one. He's an ugly dude, though.

[King]

Pearce has the edge because Pearce has Oil & Gas on his side while Harry Teague has Dairy.  That's basically how NM South works.  Dairy gets 45% of vote, O&G gets 55% of the vote.  Last election Teague was a rare oil man Democrat while Ed Tinsley was a joke.  His vote on the energy bill last year doomed him.

In the Lujan-Kokesh thing, it's important to keep in mind that there's a strong Hispanic and Native American rural back country that most pollsters tend to miss and who turn out in force for the Democrat.  Lujan is only leading 40-32 in Santa Fe and Farmington, but he's leading 90-10 everywhere else.   Kokesh would have to run a hell of a campaign to win and that's something Libertarians are incapable of doing.

In NM-01, the incumbent will win by 5% as all incumbents from NM-01 do until they decide to retire.