If the GOP wins Congress in 2010, is Obama more or less likely to be re-elected?

[Mr.Phips]

It will help him greatly.  In 2012, he can warn voters that if they give the White House to Republicans, they can say goodbye to Social Security and Medicare and get ready for huge middle class tax hike(the "fair" tax). 

[Mr.Phips]

Well, it depends.  If Obama pulls a Clinton and moves to the center, then he'll probably win re-election.  I just don't see that - not with his inner circle of Valerie Jarrett and the Chicago cabal.  There are only two people who can move him to the center.  One is Rahm Emmanuel and other dems are wanting his head right now.  The other is Robert Gates, and I imagine if you see any big move, it will be with him on national security.  I don't think that the GOP will take the senate, which helps the GOP more because he can't really argue that the GOP is in control.  The public knows that the senate is the more powerful body.

He can make some big steps to help him:
1) Fire Eric Holder and replace him with an attorney general more in line with the opinion of the public.  This is a must.
2) Send Biden on some assignment where he has little impact and is globetrotting or replace him with Clinton.
3) Stop the conflicting economic messages.  If he wants to re-sell the usefulness of his first stimulus package should the economy improve, he needs to get the advisors to have one unitary message.  You can't have Roemer and Jarrett out there saying the stimulus has already had its effect and the other saying that it hasn't taken effect yet.
4) Imaging - he needs to stop looking arrogant and out of touch with the middle.  No more arugula, no more secretly flipping off oponents when he's angry, no more secret messages to his campaign donors like the bitter comment that always get out into the media.  He needs to stop saying that he can do things because he's the president - its a touch Nixonian, people notice it and don't like it.

Rahm Emanuel will be dumped if the midterm elections go very poorly.  He is part of the reason why Obama is in this bind.  If Obama filips off the left anymore, he will draw a primary challenge so fast his head will spin.  His only hope would be to pull a Harry Truman and use the kind of in your face confrentational style with Republicans that would likely re-energized the core Democratic base.  If Obama cooperates with Republicans, the liberal base will almost certainly either primary him or support a third party candidate in the general election.  They saw what happened with Bill Clinton in the 1990's and dont want to fall into that trap again.

[Mr.Phips]

1. I would disagree for several reasons. For one in 1996 Bob Dole was the Senate Majority Leader. In 2012 the GOP nominee will likely be a Governor (Romney, Pawlenty, or Palin with a dark horse in Mitch Daniels).

2. The economy picked up rapidly in 1996 with March alone adding 700,000 jobs. Will the economy be growing that strong in 2012, I have my doubts . I think Unemployement will still be above 8% and thats if their isn't a double dip recession.

3. If the GOP gets congress, their will be a budget battle in like in 1995. Last time the GOP blew it. With the media in the Dems pocket the chance of winning the propaganda campaign is low but if they stay on message they will do better then Gingrich did and Obama might end up being the one conceeding defeat.

4. Its all about momentum with regards to obstruction. The GOP could claim they have it based on midterm win and thus Obama is the obstructionist. Considering the wide shift from -7 to 4 or so needed to win the majority back would be a double digit shift in the GOP favor.

5. Obama can't shift like Clinton did because the base would abandon him and primary him. The Truman approach is less palatable cosnidering that the country has moved much further to the right since the 40's. With independents having shifted heavilly to the GOP, that could actually destroy him. The path for him is not going to be very clear for Obama going forward, no where near as clear as it was for Clinton. So he will need to split the difference in which case he make get the worst of both worlds.

Also, I hear Dick Morris is more interested in destroying Obama then helping. lol

I dont think Obama wants Dick Morris' "help".  Morris is a complete idiot who, if anything, stopped Clinton from getting 50% and kept Democrats from winning back the House with his strategy to have Clinton cave to Republicans.  This kept core Democratic voters from turning out in full force and made Republicans look competent to independent voters. 

[Mr.Phips]

Not true about unemployment. If unemployment isn't below 7.5%, Obama is toast. Anyone could beat him whether it's Romney or Tom Delay. Also, don't underestimate the GOP's ability to make ads stating that our tax dollars should go toward defeating the terrorists and not towards their defense attorneys.

I can see one way in which Obama wins with unemployment above 7.5% -- and that is in a postwar retrenchment of the economy in which the economy goes from heavy war production to peacetime production. Such would not be his fault.

Of course I know that the GOP can come up with appeals to a false patriotism in which people take offense at the idea that terrorists deserve defense lawyers. Does that imply the "need" for a kangaroo court, a Soviet-style troika, or a lynching?


Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will have been tried and sentenced before November 2012. As a strict rule I do not predict the outcome of jury trials.

The Israelis paid for the cost of a defense attorney for Adolf Eichmann and for bullet-proof glass around his cage in the courtroom. Is any anti-American terrorist accused of anything as bad as Eichmann was convicted of?

I think that whether the Democrats maintain or lose control of the House and/or Senate, President Obama will have a good campaign machine behind it and strong campaign ads. if the Republicans gain control of one or the other (more likely the House), then he will run against what he will present as a "do-nothing Congress". 

 

The only President ever reelected with unemployment over 7.5% was FDR and he was able to do so because he passed legislation like public works, the WPA, and Social Security that linked millions of previously dissaffected voters to him and the Democrats.  Obama may be able to that with healthcare, but that is his only shot.