If the GOP wins Congress in 2010, is Obama more or less likely to be re-elected?

[Dan the Roman]

It would make a landslide against him  much less likely, as the threat of an all-Republican federal government should solidfy the Democratic position in the Northeast and West Coast, and is something Scott Brown should probably in particular be worried about. That said, the election will not  be won or lost in the places where the GOP domination threat on its own will be death to the GOP nominee regardless of who it will be. In places like Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida he will need to actually be a much better President and politician as he has hitherto been. And the biggest obstacle to that is the refusal of his braintrust to admit he is in trouble. Given that Plouffe and Axelrod are the same people running the Deval Patrick ship,  I think further inward-lookingness is more likely than not.

I think the American people are annoyed in that for the last ten to fifteen years they have been denied the post-war ideal, ie. a moderate Republican President and a Democratic Congress, which even Clinton was a pale immitation of. In 2012 they will have a choice between a bad option and a worse one; a Democratic President with a Republican Congress and a Republican President with a Republican Congress.

[Dan the Roman]

More annoying is that the American people have been denied a Calvin Coolidge type president for so long.

Coolidge understood what it was about. Bill Clinton figured it out by the end w. Neither Bush nor Obama has ever gotten it.

[Dan the Roman]

Not true about unemployment. If unemployment isn't below 7.5%, Obama is toast. Anyone could beat him whether it's Romney or Tom Delay. Also, don't underestimate the GOP's ability to make ads stating that our tax dollars should go toward defeating the terrorists and not towards their defense attorneys.

There are factors in existance beyond Obama. The question may well be undivided control of the national government by the GOP given the high prospect the GOP would take the senate in 2012. That gurrantees Obama 46% and probably close to 152(MA,NY,VT,RI,DC,MD,CA,WA) electoral votes regardless of economic conditions. To be fair though, this issue is probably weakest with someone like Romney. On  the otherhand, against someone like Palin, well, if Obama converted to Islam tomorrow he would still have difficulty dropping below 200 or so electoral votes.