If the GOP wins Congress in 2010, is Obama more or less likely to be re-elected?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

1. I would disagree for several reasons. For one in 1996 Bob Dole was the Senate Majority Leader. In 2012 the GOP nominee will likely be a Governor (Romney, Pawlenty, or Palin with a dark horse in Mitch Daniels).

2. The economy picked up rapidly in 1996 with March alone adding 700,000 jobs. Will the economy be growing that strong in 2012, I have my doubts . I think Unemployement will still be above 8% and thats if their isn't a double dip recession.

3. If the GOP gets congress, their will be a budget battle in like in 1995. Last time the GOP blew it. With the media in the Dems pocket the chance of winning the propaganda campaign is low but if they stay on message they will do better then Gingrich did and Obama might end up being the one conceeding defeat.

4. Its all about momentum with regards to obstruction. The GOP could claim they have it based on midterm win and thus Obama is the obstructionist. Considering the wide shift from -7 to 4 or so needed to win the majority back would be a double digit shift in the GOP favor.

5. Obama can't shift like Clinton did because the base would abandon him and primary him. The Truman approach is less palatable cosnidering that the country has moved much further to the right since the 40's. With independents having shifted heavilly to the GOP, that could actually destroy him. The path for him is not going to be very clear for Obama going forward, no where near as clear as it was for Clinton. So he will need to split the difference in which case he make get the worst of both worlds.

Also, I hear Dick Morris is more interested in destroying Obama then helping. lol