If the GOP wins Congress in 2010, is Obama more or less likely to be re-elected?

[pbrower2a]

Question: would he want to be President?

If so, then he would run a Truman-like campaign against a "do-nothing" or even "perverse" (he would find gentler words than the word "perverse", but not by much) Congress.

Republicans in Congress are now very unpopular, and if they got the majority back, they might offer solutions that most Americans would dislike. Who wants to work longer and harder under harsher conditions for less? Who wants greater risk of wars intended largely for the profit of war contractors? Who wants tax increases on themselves so that well-heeled people can be made exempt from them? Who wants the economy divided up among ruthless profiteers?

For good reason, Americans voted out Republican majorities in the House and Senate in 2006, and should they forget in 2010, they will find out again in 2012 why the voted them out.


I do not believe that the GOP will regain control of either House of Congress in November 2010. It has nothing new to offer except new hardships.  

[pbrower2a]

Not true about unemployment. If unemployment isn't below 7.5%, Obama is toast. Anyone could beat him whether it's Romney or Tom Delay. Also, don't underestimate the GOP's ability to make ads stating that our tax dollars should go toward defeating the terrorists and not towards their defense attorneys.

I can see one way in which Obama wins with unemployment above 7.5% -- and that is in a postwar retrenchment of the economy in which the economy goes from heavy war production to peacetime production. Such would not be his fault.

Of course I know that the GOP can come up with appeals to a false patriotism in which people take offense at the idea that terrorists deserve defense lawyers. Does that imply the "need" for a kangaroo court, a Soviet-style troika, or a lynching?


Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will have been tried and sentenced before November 2012. As a strict rule I do not predict the outcome of jury trials.

The Israelis paid for the cost of a defense attorney for Adolf Eichmann and for bullet-proof glass around his cage in the courtroom. Is any anti-American terrorist accused of anything as bad as Eichmann was convicted of?

I think that whether the Democrats maintain or lose control of the House and/or Senate, President Obama will have a good campaign machine behind it and strong campaign ads. if the Republicans gain control of one or the other (more likely the House), then he will run against what he will present as a "do-nothing Congress".