10/25 Tipp Online Bush 50 Kerry 42

[Reds4]

Bush up 8 in three way race with leaners. Bush up 7 in 2 way race 48-41. Yesterday must have been a very good day for Bush. Tipp jumps more than others though, so we'll have to wait and see.

[The Vorlon]

TIPP is a good poll that I respect.  An 8% lead cannot be ignored, however the following caveats are in order:

TIPP has the smallest sample of any of the tracking polls.

At just +/- 200 LVs per day x 4 days => +/- 800 LVs in the sample it is prone to a few blips here and there.

Usually if a tracking poll is showing a real change it is gradual where a candidate gains a poinbt here and there or loses a point here and there.

This may be real, but when I see a big change in one day on any tracking poll I assume it is a blip till proven otherwise.

[Whacker77]

While I'm happy with the result, I'm going to remain skeptical.  After seeing this though, I'm almost certain that Rasmssen will show Kerry in the lead.  Both sides will have their poll that eases their fears.

[pollwatch99-a]

Rasmussen moving other way; Kerry +2 Kerry 48.4 Bush 46.4

[Reds4]

The 2 point lead for Kerry in rasmussen is interesting. vorlon, anyway you can tell about what the numbers are for each night? I also noticed the support for Dem Congressional candidate is 46%, which is higher than its been in a long time. I would think when these numbers drop Bush will be back ahead by Wed or Thurs but we will have to wait and see.

[Sam Spade]

I think what we're seeing here is a number of competing blips that the polling companies are creating in order to rile up each side.