Election Night Predctions

[John]

Well Starting Today
I will be Start my Predctions on Election Night
Bush is Leading in Most of the States he won in 2000
& He is Leading in Iowa & WI
Kerry is Leading in all of the Al Gores States & in NH & CO
So My 1st Predction will be
Bush wins by a Narrow Margin
51% to 48% to Kerry
291 to 247

[MODU]

My election night prediction:

I predict I will be asleep before the Hawaii results come in. 

[WalterMitty]

i predict bush will win indiana and kerry has a good shot at taking connecticut.  that is about all im confident enough to predict at this point.

[Reds4]

my election night prediction:

I won't be able to sleep no matter who wins. If Kerry wins I'll be so upset I won't sleep for a few days. If Bush wins I'll be so pumped up I won't be able to sleep.

[Rococo4]

my election night prediction:

I won't be able to sleep no matter who wins. If Kerry wins I'll be so upset I won't sleep for a few days. If Bush wins I'll be so pumped up I won't be able to sleep.

I agree.....and I am already not sleeping

[elcorazon]

I predict that Kerry loses if he does not carry all 3 of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.  Bush will win Iowa, Wisconsin & Minnesota, leaving Kerry in need of all 3 to win.  I still think he has a decent chance, however of taking all 3 (I'd put it around 35%).

[Silent Hunter]

I will learn what it feels like to be Jack Bauer.

A lot of people will have to eat a lot of humble pie.

[Light Touch]

I'm just curious to see Badnarik's numbers.  Beyond that, Bush wins, decisively but not overwhelmingly, 4 more years of the same, etc.

[minionofmidas]

A John prediction that almost makes sense! Whao! (I'm referring to his numbers weakness here...all he forgot was to subtract CO from the Bush total. And the two figures even add up tp 538!)
You're really improving. Keep up the good work!

[John]

well Here is my 2nd Predction
Bush: 285
Kerry: 247
AR is a toss Up

[opebo]

Kerry - 294
Bush - 244

[jacob_101]

My prediction:  Bush 269 Kerry 268

Same as 2000 except Bush loses FL, OH, NH

Same as 2000 for Dems except Kerry loses MN, WI, IA, NM, OR and HI

The Republican elector in WV defects.

[orunje]

I would bet my last dollar that Bush carries Kansas.

[minionofmidas]

I would bet my last dollar that Bush carries Kansas.

The risk is zilch, but so will be the odds...not worth the effort really.

[raggage]

My prediction:  Bush 269 Kerry 268

Same as 2000 except Bush loses FL, OH, NH

Same as 2000 for Dems except Kerry loses MN, WI, IA, NM, OR and HI

The Republican elector in WV defects.

Hawaii!!!!! No way that goes GOP. Even if there are ads going on and if Lingle is governor

[alcaeus]

I would bet my last dollar that Bush carries Kansas.

     A bet on Kansas in the election must be like moving to Kansas.

     A few brave voters in Kansas will give Kerry the popular vote on election night.

     This campaign reminds me of '92.   "Clinton can't win" became the mantra of the election; hanging like a cloud over Democrats and buoying Republicans.  Kerry will win this election.   The difference in this election is Republicans are sending their armies to challenge votes.

     It took an election to get these Republicans near neighborhoods they call "not nice."

    When Republicans challenge votes do they send Young Republicans in red sweaters?

       

[Democratic Hawk]

my election night prediction:

I won't be able to sleep no matter who wins. If Kerry wins I'll be so upset I won't sleep for a few days. If Bush wins I'll be so pumped up I won't be able to sleep.

If Kerry wins, that's fine by me, but if Bush wins I'll be "downright miserable"!

No prediction as of yet! There's too much volatility in the polls and the swing sates.

Dave

[John]

well here is Wednesday & Today Predctions
Bush: 274
Kerry: 264
Today
Bush: 275
Kerry: 262

[No more McShame]

Bush: 306 EV 2000 -NH, +NM, MN, WI, & IO

Kerry: 232 EV +NH, -NM, MN, WI, & IO

Senate: Repubs pick up: GA, SC, NC, FL, SD, & LA (in runoff)

              Dems pick up: IL, OK (upset special), & AK

              All else stays with same party.

    Net gain of 3 for Republicans

House: Repubs pick up one seat.

Please Discuss .

[Sam Spade]

What is IO? (I think you mean IA for Iowa.)

You left out Colorado in your Senate analysis.  I can understand why, it is a hard race to call.

I would say that overall the Dems have a better chance to pick up CO than OK, though I personally think the Reps will hold onto both of the them.  The CO GOTV among Reps is underestimated and has always been so.  Carson overplayed his hand and even though no one in DC(including Rep big-wigs in Congress) wants Coburn in, Coburn's strength among Indys is something that has always been underestimated.

Vitter's chances of avoiding a runoff are getting stronger every day (I place it at about 35-40% now).  John has run too far to the right and the black base is leaning towards Kennedy now.  The question is, will any of these factors be enough?  Hard to tell right now.

[No more McShame]

What is IO? (I think you mean IA for Iowa.)

You left out Colorado in your Senate analysis.  I can understand why, it is a hard race to call.

I would say that overall the Dems have a better chance to pick up CO than OK, though I personally think the Reps will hold onto both of the them.  The CO GOTV among Reps is underestimated and has always been so.  Carson overplayed his hand and even though no one in DC(including Rep big-wigs in Congress) wants Coburn in, Coburn's strength among Indys is something that has always been underestimated.

Vitter's chances of avoiding a runoff are getting stronger every day (I place it at about 35-40% now).  John has run too far to the right and the black base is leaning towards Kennedy now.  The question is, will any of these factors be enough?  Hard to tell right now.

Good catch.  Bush wins Iowa (IA).  :-)     I left out CO becuase I believe Coors will hold the seat for Republicans.  By a whisker.  The state votes GOP when it gets down to it.  Allard was underpolling two years ago as well.  I haven't seen enough numbers to show Vitter avoiding a run-off, polls are going in that direction.  Hard to tell.  Could change in five days .  There I copped out.

[Reaganfan]

Bush wins 296 to 242:

[Sam Spade]

I base my Vitter uptick on this poll that I posted last night here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=11396.0

[No more McShame]

Bush wins 296 to 242:

copycat :-).  I only have MN going to the President.  How do you post maps?

[J. J.]

Ohio stays out until it doesn't matter.  Bush gett to 270 by 11:00 PM ET.