Also shows Kerry slightly ahead in battleground states.
Florida: 50.0% to 45.5%
Pennsylvania: 50.0% to 44.0%
Ohio: 47.4% to 47.1%
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/10-25-2004/0002308854&EDATE=Bush Holds Narrow Lead Nationwide, but Kerry Has Edge in Key Swing States
-- War in Iraq is a double-edged sword for Bush
-- It's "Security wives", not "Security moms"
-- First Ladies matter to "swing" ladies; likeability of candidates'
wives will play an important role at the polls
RESTON, Va., Oct. 25 /PRNewswire/ -- A poll conducted by comScore
Networks, Inc. has determined that President George W. Bush holds a narrow
1.7% lead among women voters nationwide. Yet Senator John Kerry holds a slim
lead in two of three key battleground states. Kerry leads among women voters
in Florida (50.0% to 45.5%) and Pennsylvania (50.0% to 44.0%), while the race
is a dead heat in Ohio (47.1% to 47.1%).
comScore's poll surveyed 2,379 registered women voters nationwide between
October 16 and October 20, 2004.* The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.0%.
The full results of the survey are available in PDF format by visiting
http://www.comscore.com/election .
"While a majority of women voters favor President Bush nationally, those
in the three key battleground states are significantly less supportive. The
difference is clearly impacting the president's performance in these critical
states," says Magid Abraham, PhD, CEO and co-founder of comScore Networks,
Inc. "Our poll clearly shows that compared to the national average, larger
margins of women voters in key swing states believe that the country is worse
off today than it was four years ago."
While 52.3% of all women voters nationwide say the country is worse off
today than it was four years ago, the numbers are considerably higher in
Florida (57.6%), Pennsylvania (58.8%), and Ohio (55.8%). Issues that favor
Kerry are more important to female voters living in swing states. For
example, 21.3% of female voters in swing states list the economy as their top
priority issue, compared to 18.9% of women nationally. Similarly, 14.2% of
female voters in swing states list healthcare as their most important issue
compared to 13% nationally. Issues that tend to favor President Bush, such as
terrorism and illegal immigration, are less of a concern in swing states.
Bush Leads on Terrorism, Homeland Security and Iraq, but Lags on all
Domestic Issues
President Bush enjoys a commanding lead on the key issues of homeland
security, terrorism and the war in Iraq. In assessing who would do a better
job in the war on terrorism, women voters overall prefer Bush 58.7% to 39.4%.
A similar margin exists in the area of homeland security, where Bush holds a
56.9% to 40.9% edge. However, it is important to note that President Bush's
strength among women voters on terrorism, homeland security and Iraq is
significantly lower in the three swing states than in the country as a whole.
For example, 57% of women nationally believe Bush would do a better job in
Iraq versus 41% for Kerry -- a gap of 17 points. In swing states, however,
only a 6-point gap exists (51% to 46%).
When asked who would do a better job on a range of issues, Senator Kerry
gets higher marks on every single campaign issue except homeland security,
terrorism and Iraq. On the economy, healthcare, education, job growth and
social security, women voters in battleground states clearly have more
confidence in Kerry. Kerry's performance on these domestic issues is
significantly stronger in the three swing states than in the country overall.
For example, among women voters in Ohio, Kerry leads Bush on job growth 54.7%
to 41.5%.
War in Iraq Presents Delicate Challenge for Bush
Overall, women think Bush would do a better job on the War in Iraq than
Kerry (57.0% to 40.9%). However, among 19 percent of female voters who think
this is the most important campaign issue, the reverse is true -- Kerry wins
61.2% to 35.4%. This presents a difficult challenge for Bush because it
suggests he needs to keep it among the top five issues for voters, without
making it the highest priority.
Married vs. Single Women: Beyond "Security Moms"
Marital status continues to be the single most important demographic
differentiator between Bush and Kerry supporters. President Bush gets 56.4% of
married women's votes, but only 36.6% among single women. Being a married mom
increases the president's vote only slightly to 57.5%. The difference in
marital status accounts for almost a 20-point gap in Bush's support, while
being a married mom raises his support by less than 2 points above and beyond
support among all married women.
Interestingly, the war in Iraq is more important to single women as a
whole than it is to married women. When ranking issues that most influence
who they will vote for, single women ranked the war in Iraq as the number one
issue, while married women ranked it as the third most important behind
homeland security/terrorism and the economy.
What Matters to Women in This Election -- What Will Drive Their Vote?
Of all the campaign issues out there, which matter most to women? Many
issues are thought to elicit a strong emotional response from women but they
have little influence on determining their choice for president. When asked to
select their five most important issues, three out of four women surveyed did
not choose any of the following: environment, federal deficit, abortion,
stem-cell research, gay marriage, illegal immigration, or gun control. Both
single and married women voters identified the war in Iraq, health care, the
economy, homeland security/terrorism and social security as the most important
issues in the election.
"Based on the results of 'who would do a better job' questions, women
voters are having a more difficult task this year in choosing a president,"
said Dr. Abraham. "They are, in essence, being asked to choose between 'the
economy and terrorism' or 'healthcare and homeland security.' They like
President Bush for one and Senator Kerry for the other. And that's what is
creating such anxiety among undecided women voters at this late stage in the
campaign."
When it comes to prioritizing economic concerns, pocketbook issues matter
most. Unemployment, the cost of living, personal income and gas prices are
more important than less immediate issues, such as tax rates, mortgage rates
and the performance of the stock market. While taxes are among the least
important economic issues to women, 54.6% of single women and 61.1% of married
women say that tax cuts should remain in place.
First Lady Preferences Show Stark Division
Women voters have strikingly different opinions of Laura Bush and Teresa
Heinz Kerry -- and for many women, these opinions will play a role in their
choice of a candidate. Simply put, a strong majority of female voters view
the First Lady favorably, both nationally (58.2%) and in the three key swing
states. Teresa Heinz Kerry, on the other hand, has a favorability rating of
only 29.9%. In fact, an unusually high 40.5% of women voters give Heinz Kerry
an unfavorable rating. Among married women, the ratings are even lower for
Heinz Kerry. For every married woman that dislikes Laura Bush, there are
seven that dislike Teresa Heinz Kerry.
Perhaps the more important finding is that more than half (51.5%) of the
women voters surveyed by comScore, say that their preference for First Lady
will have at least some impact on their vote, and 14.2% say it will have a
significant impact. Not surprisingly, President Bush has a commanding
majority, 69.8%, among women with a favorable opinion of Mrs. Bush and a
whopping 86.3% majority among women with an unfavorable opinion of Mrs. Heinz
Kerry.
"It is no accident that the Bush campaign is relying so heavily on Laura
Bush; she is clearly immensely popular among women voters, and she is a strong
asset to the Bush-Cheney campaign," adds Dr. Abraham.
Conclusion
If not for the fear of terrorism and the concern about the war in Iraq,
Senator Kerry would be 5 to 10 points ahead of President Bush among women
voters nationwide, and 10 to 15 points in swing states. Clearly, female voters
show greater confidence in Kerry on domestic issues, such as healthcare,
education and the economy. But, just as clearly, women voters feel that Bush
would make a better leader in the war on terror and a stronger
commander-in-chief in the war in Iraq.
* The respondents were female Internet users who were contacted via email.
The key swings states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania were sampled more
heavily for increased precision in the three key swing states. National data
were weighted to accurately reflect the contribution of the swing states to
the national results.
