PA/Quinnipiac: Specter comes back to life

[The Mikado]

A former president of the club for growth won't win a election in any democrat state. And Pennsylvania voted for the D's candidate for president in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008.

Stop tempting fate.  Toomey will likely win as it is...pretending Specter's a shoo-in ignores his very real vulnerability.  Given that most of the electorate, right and left, view him as an opportunistic phony and, as Mr. Moderate pointed out, Dem turnout will be suppressed by an uncompetitive governor's race, Specter's in the race of his career.  Not even Arlen Specter could invent up a magic bullet better designed for ending his career.

[ScottM]

A former president of the club for growth won't win a election in any democrat state. And Pennsylvania voted for the D's candidate for president in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008.

Stop tempting fate.  Toomey will likely win as it is...pretending Specter's a shoo-in ignores his very real vulnerability.  Given that most of the electorate, right and left, view him as an opportunistic phony and, as Mr. Moderate pointed out, Dem turnout will be suppressed by an uncompetitive governor's race, Specter's in the race of his career.  Not even Arlen Specter could invent up a magic bullet better designed for ending his career.

It's definitely a stupid idea for Democrats to pretend that Specter can't lose. They should have learned that from the Massachusetts special election. I hope they do take that position, though I strongly doubt they will.

As things are right now I'm reasonably confident that Toomey will win, but it's a long time until November.

[SamInTheSouth]

Toomey lost 2004 GOP primary because he was too conservative, even for republicans. He won't win the race. If he lost a Republican primary to specter, he won't be able to win independent and D vote.

Anything else you'd like to add?

[Niemeyerite]

Toomey lost 2004 GOP primary because he was too conservative, even for republicans. He won't win the race. If he lost a Republican primary to specter, he won't be able to win independent and D vote.

Anything else you'd like to add?

wave bivgger than expected on march and he still won by only 2%. I don't think he can win in 2016, let's see.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't think he can win in 2016, let's see.

People are still predicting races six years in advance. Astounding. Did this year (and previous years) not prove anything?

[Eraserhead]

Toomey will have the power of incumbency on his side in 2016 which could help shield him to some extent in a less Republican environment. As I said in another thread, I think a rematch with Sestak would be extremely fun to watch. They certainly put on a good show this time around.

[Niemeyerite]

I didn't predict nothing. I only said I don't think he wins, but I rerally don't (and can't) know.
but he was as conservative as santorum two years ago. if he acts like another teabagger in the senate, he will have problems to win another term.