Obama V Daniels

[Phony Moderate]

Discuss, with maps.

[Conservative frontier]

I'd vote for Obama. I don't vote for Arabs.

[pragmatic liberal]

It depends entirely on Obama's approval. Daniels is arguably a good candidate for the GOP because he's an acceptable alternative who conservatives, moderates, business types and social conservatives would all be okay with. Sure, he's a little dull, quiet, and somewhat moderate. But that's probably best, because if Obama is unpopular, the GOP just needs to nominate someone who doesn't have such high negatives they'll fumble the ball. So Romney or Palin, esp., would be toast.

Perhaps Daniels/Jindal would be best.

1. If Obama approval is at 54%+ then:

At this approval rating, Obama *might* also take Indiana, but Daniels would be favored as the favorite son.

2. Narrow Obama Reelection (Approval between 48% and 52%)

Narrow Obama loss (approval at 45-46%)

Biggest possible Daniels win (Obama at 42-45%):

[redcommander]

It depends entirely on Obama's approval. Daniels is arguably a good candidate for the GOP because he's an acceptable alternative who conservatives, moderates, business types and social conservatives would all be okay with. Sure, he's a little dull, quiet, and somewhat moderate. But that's probably best, because if Obama is unpopular, the GOP just needs to nominate someone who doesn't have such high negatives they'll fumble the ball. So Romney or Palin, esp., would be toast.

Perhaps Daniels/Jindal would be best.

1. If Obama approval is at 54%+ then:

At this approval rating, Obama *might* also take Indiana, but Daniels would be favored as the favorite son.

2. Narrow Obama Reelection (Approval between 48% and 52%)

Narrow Obama loss (approval at 45-46%)

Biggest possible Daniels win (Obama at 42-45%):

Why wouldn't you think he would win New Hampshire? Republicans are likely to take back the state legislature, both house seats, and keep Gregg's seat in fall.

[pragmatic liberal]

It depends entirely on Obama's approval. Daniels is arguably a good candidate for the GOP because he's an acceptable alternative who conservatives, moderates, business types and social conservatives would all be okay with. Sure, he's a little dull, quiet, and somewhat moderate. But that's probably best, because if Obama is unpopular, the GOP just needs to nominate someone who doesn't have such high negatives they'll fumble the ball. So Romney or Palin, esp., would be toast.

Perhaps Daniels/Jindal would be best.

1. If Obama approval is at 54%+ then:

At this approval rating, Obama *might* also take Indiana, but Daniels would be favored as the favorite son.

2. Narrow Obama Reelection (Approval between 48% and 52%)

Narrow Obama loss (approval at 45-46%)

Biggest possible Daniels win (Obama at 42-45%):

Why wouldn't you think he would win New Hampshire? Republicans are likely to take back the state legislature, both house seats, and keep Gregg's seat in fall.

Well, midterms don't necessarily indicate anything about presidential elections. But you're right that if Daniels is winning by the margins indicated in scenario 4, then yeah, he could flip NH. Same with Wisconsin and maybe Minnesota.

And if Ayotte wins this November and proves competent, she could be a darkhorse candidate for VP.

[auburntiger]

I think that map is good except I'd give daniels Wisconsin, new hampshire, and ME-02, but give new Mexico to Obama

[paul718]

I'd vote for Obama. I don't vote for Arabs.

Joking?

[pbrower2a]

It depends entirely on Obama's approval. Daniels is arguably a good candidate for the GOP because he's an acceptable alternative who conservatives, moderates, business types and social conservatives would all be okay with. Sure, he's a little dull, quiet, and somewhat moderate. But that's probably best, because if Obama is unpopular, the GOP just needs to nominate someone who doesn't have such high negatives they'll fumble the ball. So Romney or Palin, esp., would be toast.

Perhaps Daniels/Jindal would be best.

1. If Obama approval is at 54%+ then:

At this approval rating, Obama *might* also take Indiana, but Daniels would be favored as the favorite son.

2. Narrow Obama Reelection (Approval between 48% and 52%)

Narrow Obama loss (approval at 45-46%)

Biggest possible Daniels win (Obama at 42-45%):

Why wouldn't you think he would win New Hampshire? Republicans are likely to take back the state legislature, both house seats, and keep Gregg's seat in fall.

On the last one, Michigan would now go to Obama before either Minnesota or Wisconsin.  The three states are politically similar even to having one giant metropolis each. Hint: greater Detroit is bigger than Milwaukee or the Twin Cities and has a larger percentage of blacks.

[pragmatic liberal]

On the last one, Michigan would now go to Obama before either Minnesota or Wisconsin.  The three states are politically similar even to having one giant metropolis each. Hint: greater Detroit is bigger than Milwaukee or the Twin Cities and has a larger percentage of blacks.

My sense was that the super-poor Michigan economy would hurt Obama more than in Wisconsin and Minnesota. But obviously we're speculating about hypotheticals and all these states could go either way in something like scenarios 3 or 4.

[California8429]

I think that map is good except I'd give daniels Wisconsin, new hampshire, and ME-02, but give new Mexico to Obama

[SvenssonRS]

I'd vote for Obama. I don't vote for Arabs.

Of all the people I thought would be a bigoted piece of trash, I least expected you.