Name the Next President After Obama, and The Date They Are Inaugurated

[Bull Moose Base]

Right so Obama is going to be reelected and a Democrat is going to win after he leaves office. Sorry he's no Reagan.

In that he's never warned that Medicare would be the end of freedom as we know it?  Reagan was so awesome, even a campaigner as talented and problem-free as Dukakis couldn't hold the double digit lead he started out with.

Hillary would probably be a superior candidate to Gore who won a 3D term but for ballot goofs

[Bull Moose Base]

My calls on probability...

I'd call Romney the most likely next president like this.  I give him a 66% chance of being the GOP nominee in 2012, at which point I'd call it a 25% chance of beating Obama.  So that adds up to about a 16% chance he's elected president in 2012.  I'd also give him a 20% chance of being the nominee in 2016 and say a 50% the GOP wins that year, like a 10% chance he's elected in 2016.  That adds up to roughly 25% chance Romney succeeds Obama, which is probably the best odds for anyone.

Hillary... I'd say 75% Obama wins in 2012, maybe 60% chance she's the nominee in 2016 with a 50% chance of winning... 22% chance she wins in 2016 to succeed Obama.  If Obama loses, maybe 30% she's the nominee in 2016 with a 25% chance of winning.  So 2% chance it goes Obama, Republican in 2012, Hillary in 2016.  Adds up to about 24% chance she succeeds Obama.

[Bull Moose Base]

Scott P. Brown - January 20, 2017

I don't understand the Scott Brown hype. He's a mediocre politician who lucked out in a special election against an even more mediocre candidate in a friendly environment. He's not an impressive speaker at all. Whenever I've seen him since his election he's got that deer in the headlights look. If he become a Snowe clone and keeps his nose clean and the democrats can't find a candidate he might win reelection, but really he's the flavour of the month with no hope at any national Republican anything.

To answer the question, who the  knows.

Plus nationally, he'd be a pro-choice candidate running in a Republican primary.  Very long shot.