.

[Bull Moose Base]

.

[Psychic Octopus]

Santorum seems (extremely) likely to me that he will run. Of course, he won't win anything.

[SvenssonRS]

Agreed with NiK. Santorum is almost advertising his bid on a neon sign.

[Lunar]

Agreed with NiK. Santorum is almost advertising his bid on a neon sign.

Well, he HAS to whip out the neon sign to stay relevant even if he only privately gives himself a 10% chance.

I think it's a great question, and I don't think I can give anyone besides Palin Romney & Pawlenty an over 50% of running.  

[Poundingtherock]

Lunar,

So you are thinking Romney is going to pass?  I'm thinking along the same lines.

He's already running seven behind his performance in Missouri in 2008.  This was the first poll conducted post-HC.

[California8429]

Santorum seems (extremely) likely to me that he will run. Of course, he won't win anything.

[fezzyfestoon]

Santorum and Thune I feel like are the most likely out of the group of frequently discussed characters.

[Lunar]

Lunar,

So you are thinking Romney is going to pass?  I'm thinking along the same lines.

He's already running seven behind his performance in Missouri in 2008.  This was the first poll conducted post-HC.

I don't think that at all!  I think Romney is about as sure of a candidate as you can get these days.  He's actively campaigning in all of the primary states [note his recent endorsement of Nikki Haley in South Carolina, that's a BIG indication he's serious about 2012], fundraising, and keeping a top-notch campaign staff around...there is no indication that Romney isn't going to run in 2012.  Really, unlike Palin & Huckabee, Romney hasn't gotten a day job that could serve as an alternative to presidential candidate. 

[Bull Moose Base]

Lunar,

So you are thinking Romney is going to pass?  I'm thinking along the same lines.

He's already running seven behind his performance in Missouri in 2008.  This was the first poll conducted post-HC.

I don't think that at all!  I think Romney is about as sure of a candidate as you can get these days.  He's actively campaigning in all of the primary states [note his recent endorsement of Nikki Haley in South Carolina, that's a BIG indication he's serious about 2012], fundraising, and keeping a top-notch campaign staff around...there is no indication that Romney isn't going to run in 2012.  Really, unlike Palin & Huckabee, Romney hasn't gotten a day job that could serve as an alternative to presidential candidate. 

You left Romney's name out when you cited Pawlenty and Palin.  Think that accounts for the mix-up.

Posts here sent me checking out Santorum's activity.  Apparently, he raised more money than Huckabee in the second half of 2009 so that's a strong suggestion of a run.  On the other hand, this article from 2006 suggests Santorum was using his PAC to cover his own living expenses.

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?articleId=11174

So maybe the neon sign about a presidential run is just because it's more tasteful than putting up a sign saying, "My kids will be applying to college soon.  Help."  Or maybe he noticed how lucrative losing campaigns were for Huckabee and Palin and wanted some of that action.

[Lunar]

oops I meant Romney when I said Palin, I don't think Palin has over a 50% chance of running, as of now.  My mistake.

It's hard to tell Santorum's personal odds for running for president, I think it's too vague to give it >50%.  I was just trying to say that if he wants to leave the door OPEN at all, he needs to act serious and get the media mentions now, and then decide later.

[Torie]

My speculation is that it is highly unlikely Palin will run. She is not a stupid woman (just relatively ignorant and intellectually lazy, and I also suspect rather disorganized), and thus I suspect she knows her limitations, and realizes that she runs a great risk of being shredded and embarrassing herself.  In any event, if she were really serious, she would not be so assiduously cashing in (and I mean literally in the sense of making the big bucks, including collecting 100K for the Tea Party event in Nashville), and would not be doing reality TV etc. 

[Mr. Morden]

Palin is hard to read and in a bit of a different category.  But among the others, if I were to rank how much they've done to indicate that they're going to run, I might go with something like this:

1) Pawlenty
2) Romney
.
.
<big gap>
.
.
3) Santorum
4) Johnson
5) Gingrich

Of course, "how much they've done to indicate they're running" doesn't necessarily map cleanly onto "likelihood of running".  For example, Gingrich has already teased the possibility of running in past presidential elections, but has never followed through.  So even though he's publicly entertaining the possibility of entering the race, his actions have to be considered with greater skepticism than some of the others.

[BlueSwan]

I would bet good money on Palin running. I think it's way more likely than 50%. I don't think she realizes her limitations at all. I also think she'll at the very least be in the running for actually winning the nomination, although I think someone else will grab it. If she does win the nomination I don't think she has much of a chance of actually beating Obama.

[Bull Moose Base]

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1977702,00.html?xid=rss-topstories#ixzz0kFkId403

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1977702,00.html?xid=rss-topstories#ixzz0kFkId403

Meh, I think Halperin drastically overstates the extent to which the "invisible primary" is going at a slower pace this time than in years past.  Yes, it's true that Pawlenty and Romney are the only two candidates who are currently engaged in "the serious travel, staff hiring, contact building and general planning that are required to make a credible run for President", but who on the GOP side was doing that in April 2006?  No one aside from McCain and Romney IMHO.

Halperin also says that Pawlenty "has barely touched ground in the early battlegrounds".  Which I think is a ridiculous statement.  Pawlenty has made numerous trips to the early primary states, as well as many non-early primary states.  He's done way more cross-country travel than I would have expected from a candidate who has a day job as governor of Minnesota.

He also lists Santorum among those who are "doing very little to make themselves known".  Uh, it's not for lack of trying.  There are potential candidates like Santorum and Johnson who are actually doing quite a bit to try to raise their national profile.  It's just that the media doesn't pay attention to them.  I think Halperin is getting the 2012 election story only partially right because he simply hasn't been paying enough attention to it.

[WillK]

Pallin has found the fame and fortune she desires without public office anymore, so I don't see her running.

[California8429]

Santroum, Johnson are pretty much in

[Yelnoc]

I think Daniels will run, though I couldn't say it's a >50% likeliness.

I found this article interesting about the possibility.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/12/09/mitch-daniels-for-president-in-2012.html

[Derek]

Idk enough about Daniels to say he's more than 50% likely. He's kind of quiet which is good for a candidate.

[Zarn]

Johnson...

[Eraserhead]

I hope Palin picks LL Cool J as her running mate if she wins the nomination.