Rank likelihood of winner of 2012 election. 3 rules.

[Bull Moose Base]

1. Obama's the Democratic nominee.
2. Consider possibility of someone not running.
3. Your honest prediction even if you don' t like the result.

Obama: 65%
Romney: 20%
Pawlenty: 5%
Huckabee: 3%
Palin: 2%
Daniels: 2%
Thune: 2%
Other: 1%

[Poundingtherock]

Obama 55%
Palin 15%
Romney 15%
Pawlenty/Thune/Huckabee/other 15%

[justW353]

Obama: 63%
Romney: 20%
Pawlenty: 5%
Daniels:  3%
Pataki: 2%
Thune: 1%
Brown: 1%
Other: 5%

Palin:  0%

[DS0816]

1. Obama's the Democratic nominee.
2. Consider possibility of someone not running.
3. Your honest prediction even if you don' t like the result.

* Obama: 92.00%
Other [GOP]: 02.75%
Other [DEM]: 01.50%
Daniels: 01.00%
Huckabee: 01.00%
Pawlenty: 01.00%
Palin: 00.25%
Romney: 00.25%
Thune: 00.25%

[BlueSwan]

Lots could change of course, but at this point Obama looks like a safe bet for a second term for the following reasons:

1) By 2012 the economy should be in much better shape.
2) Obama is a phenomenal campaigner.
3) The GOP doesn't currently have a potential super candidate.

If assumptions #1 and #3 holds, then Obama wins. If the economy is still in the ruts he likely loses. If the GOP does find a very strong candidate - say if Patraeus runs and turns out to be as likeable as a political candidate as he is as a general - then we have a race.

1. Obama - 75%
2. Palin/Romney/Huckabee - 12%
3. Some other GOP candidate - 12%
4. An independent (Patraeus??) - 1%

[zorkpolitics]

If the economy picks up and unemployment drops below 7% Obama is likely unbeatable:
Obama: 80%
Romney: 7%
Daniels: 5%
Pawlenty: 5%
Others: 3%

If the economy sucks, unemployment is above 8% or inflation is above 8% Obama is likely beatable:
Obama: 40%
Daniels: 15%
Pawlenty: 10%
Romney: 15%
Thune:     10%
Palin:       10%
Others: 3%

[Beet]

Obama 50
Palin 40
Other 10

[Bo]

Obama 75%
Romney 10%
Palin 7%
Thune 5%
Someone else 3%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Obama: 57 %
Other: 15
Daniels: 8
Thune: 6
Romney: 5
Pawlenty: 4
Palin: 3
Huckabee: 2

[Derek]

Romney
Daniels
Obama

[SvenssonRS]

At the current rate...

Obama 45%
Daniels 45% (I honestly think this)
Romney 7%
Thune 2%
Palin 1%

[ragevein]

Romeny 68% chance of winning
George Allen 66% chance of winning
Thune 53%
---
Obama 12%

He is finally under 50% (a sign of Doom for a president), and the Bradley Effect is the 500 pound elephant in the room...that no one wants to speak about.

[Sewer]

the Bradley Effect

I hope that's a joke.

[Mr. Morden]

Romeny 68% chance of winning
George Allen 66% chance of winning
Thune 53%
---
Obama 12%

He is finally under 50% (a sign of Doom for a president), and the Bradley Effect is the 500 pound elephant in the room...that no one wants to speak about.

Ah, but you forgot the Age Wave.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Obama: 30%
Romney: 15%
Pawlenty: 6%
Huckabee: 10%
Palin: 5%
Daniels: 15%
Thune: 6%
Paul: 6%
Johnson 6%
Other: 1%

[WillK]

...
He is finally under 50% (a sign of Doom for a president)..

Yeah, sure doomed Reagan's chance for reelection. 

[WillK]

Lots could change of course, but at this point Obama looks like a safe bet for a second term for the following reasons:

1) By 2012 the economy should be in much better shape.
2) Obama is a phenomenal campaigner.
3) The GOP doesn't currently have a potential super decent candidate.

If assumptions #1 and #3 holds, then Obama wins. If the economy is still in the ruts he likely loses. If the GOP does find a very strong candidate - say if Patraeus runs and turns out to be as likeable as a political candidate as he is as a general - then we have a race.

1. Obama - 75%
2. Palin/Romney/Huckabee - 12%
3. Some other GOP candidate - 12%
4. An independent (Patraeus??) - 1%

I agree with this post, though I edited it slightly

[tmthforu94]

Obama - 42%
Romney - 30%
Thune - 7%
Huckabee - 6%
Daniels - 5%
Pawlenty - 4%
Palin - 4%
Gingrich - 2%

[Mr. Morden]

Obama - 45%
Romney - 35%
Thune - 8%
Huckabee - 6%
Daniels - 5%
Pawlenty - 5%
Palin - 4%
Gingrich - 2%

That adds up to 110%.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

1. Obama's the Democratic nominee.
2. Consider possibility of someone not running.
3. Your honest prediction even if you don' t like the result.

* Obama: 92.00%
Other [GOP]: 02.75%
Other [DEM]: 01.50%
Daniels: 01.00%
Huckabee: 01.00%
Pawlenty: 01.00%
Palin: 00.25%
Romney: 00.25%
Thune: 00.25%

I think a little piece of me just died on the inside.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama 65
Romney 25
Others 10

[Psychic Octopus]

1. Obama's the Democratic nominee.
2. Consider possibility of someone not running.
3. Your honest prediction even if you don' t like the result.

* Obama: 92.00%
Other [GOP]: 02.75%
Other [DEM]: 01.50%
Daniels: 01.00%
Huckabee: 01.00%
Pawlenty: 01.00%
Palin: 00.25%
Romney: 00.25%
Thune: 00.25%

I think a little piece of me just died on the inside.

lololololololol