Why Sarah Palin will run for president

[Bull Moose Base]

A year from now, her TV career be cooling quick.  Her Discovery series and FOX specials will quickly decline in ratings.  Sales of her second book, with less gossip, will be worse than expected.  She'll sense the dimming of her celebrity has begun.  And if she has one instinct besides reproducing, it's making herself the center of attention.  She'll launch the campaign late.  And maybe exit early.  Maybe even before Iowa.

[Bo]

I probably agree with this. Palin would realize that running for President would maximize her publicity and popularity and thus allow her to make much more money by giving speeches and selling books.

[pbrower2a]

She is certainly narcissistic enough to do so. She has a firm base of intellect-hating supporters who will be glad to see a thinker leave the White House in favor of someone more home-spun.  She offers nostalgia for an America that many want to see return.

[Saxwsylvania]

She is certainly narcissistic enough to do so. She has a firm base of intellect-hating supporters who will be glad to see a thinker leave the White House in favor of someone more home-spun.  She offers nostalgia for an America that many want to see return.

Obama a thinker?  HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

If he were an independent thinker, his conclusions wouldn't arrive at the most liberal, big-government option.

[RosettaStoned]

Hopefully her TV Career will  be enough for her.

[Psychic Octopus]

Hopefully her TV Career will  be enough for her.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

Hopefully her TV Career will  be enough for her.

[SvenssonRS]

Hopefully her TV Career will  be enough for her.

[The Mikado]

For America's sake, I hope her TV career is lucrative.

[TomC]

I hope she runs. I don't like her politics much, but enough with this rich old white man's Republican Party.

[zorkpolitics]

If Obama is polling well she will wait until 2016, build up her influence and supporters and go for the "open" White House in 2016, when no doubt finally everyone will be tired of Obama and ready for "Change we want"

[bhouston79]

She will run because she is too ego-centric not to run.  She will be the nominee if the economy is doing well and Obama's approval ratings are moderately high because the big wigs in the Republican party will want to go ahead and give the tea party folks their fill.  After she loses in McGovernesque fashion, the GOP will use this as a "lesson" and nominate someone a little more moderate in 2012.  If Obama looks vulnerable however, look for the GOP bigwigs to squelch her attempt to run for office during the primaries.

[Bull Moose Base]

She will run because she is too ego-centric not to run.  She will be the nominee if the economy is doing well and Obama's approval ratings are moderately high because the big wigs in the Republican party will want to go ahead and give the tea party folks their fill.  After she loses in McGovernesque fashion, the GOP will use this as a "lesson" and nominate someone a little more moderate in 2012.  If Obama looks vulnerable however, look for the GOP bigwigs to squelch her attempt to run for office during the primaries.

Sounds about right but I assume you mean 2016 for the moderate adjustment.  On the other hand, if Rubio beats Crist (which seems increasingly likely) and then loses to Meek (which seems possible), the party may not be able to stop the lesson from being learned early so the pendulum swings to a moderate like Romney in 2012, then, after he loses to a popular Obama, back to the more conservative wing in 2016.  Of course, if Rubio wins the senate seat, it will give a big boost to someone like Palin.

[Poundingtherock]

She will run and has a very good chance of winning the nomination if Mike Huckabee sits out the race as most expect him to.

If she wins, I suspect she'd try and convince General Petreus to serve as her running mate, which very well could boost her to a good victory.

[Poundingtherock]

Kendrick meek has around a 5-10% chance of beating Marco Rubio.  Meek will be unable to paint Rubio as a right-winger because Meek himself is an idealogue.

[Frodo]

She will run because she is too ego-centric not to run.  She will be the nominee if the economy is doing well and Obama's approval ratings are moderately high because the big wigs in the Republican party will want to go ahead and give the tea party folks their fill.  After she loses in McGovernesque fashion, the GOP will use this as a "lesson" and nominate someone a little more moderate in 2012.  If Obama looks vulnerable however, look for the GOP bigwigs to squelch her attempt to run for office during the primaries.

Presumably you meant 2016.  

Apart from that, you're mirroring my thinking exactly.  

[Bull Moose Base]

She will run because she is too ego-centric not to run.  She will be the nominee if the economy is doing well and Obama's approval ratings are moderately high because the big wigs in the Republican party will want to go ahead and give the tea party folks their fill.  After she loses in McGovernesque fashion, the GOP will use this as a "lesson" and nominate someone a little more moderate in 2012.  If Obama looks vulnerable however, look for the GOP bigwigs to squelch her attempt to run for office during the primaries.

Presumably you meant 2016.  

Apart from that, you're mirroring my thinking exactly.  

Furthermore, if the recovery is well on its way by the time states have primaries, Romney's main appeal as Mr. Fix-it loses its power, his flaws become more significant and the turnout of his voters presumably depressed.  I'd go so far as to say Palin's chances at winning the nomination are roughly correlated with Obama's at winning re-election.  And I mean because of how both probabilities would be moved by economic weather.  I wasn't even factoring in causation: that if the Republican nominee looks like a sure loser, more Palin fans who are nonetheless queasy about the idea of her as president would feel safer expressing their support for her with a vote for her in the primaries.  Here comes an ergo... ergo, Palin has approximately zero chance of being elected president in 2012.  Maybe if, like 2008, there's a major crisis that hurts the incumbent party between the deciding primaries and Election Day.  But, even so, can you really see a crisis making people flock to the idea of President Palin?  Well, I feel a bit relieved.

[pbrower2a]

She will run and has a very good chance of winning the nomination if Mike Huckabee sits out the race as most expect him to.

Wishful thinking and $2 will get you a $2 cup of coffee.

So will $2. Such shows the value of wishful thinking. 

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Can you imagine a more incompatible pair? Military rationalism meets Mrs. Scatterbrain.

No victory for Sarah Palin for the Presidency is a "good" victory; it is political calamity.   

[DS0816]

She will run and has a very good chance of winning the nomination if Mike Huckabee sits out the race as most expect him to.

Wishful thinking and $2 will get you a $2 cup of coffee.

So will $2. Such shows the value of wishful thinking. 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Can you imagine a more incompatible pair? Military rationalism meets Mrs. Scatterbrain.

No victory for Sarah Palin for the Presidency is a "good" victory; it is political calamity.   

I would be willing to vote Sarah Palin the Republican Party's 2012 nomination for president of the United States.

[Mjh]

I hope Palin does decide to run, alongside Huckabee, Santorum, Pawlenty, etc. That will splitt the social conservative vote enough to allow a more moderate candidate to emerge as the winner (most likely Mitt Romney, better yet Mitch Daniels). Sort of like 2008.