How many votes did Palin cost McCain?

[Badger]

Palin cost McCain votes, period. Her clearly not ready for prime time lack of gravitas and knowledge, combined with McCain's age and health issues, cost moderate persuadable votes. Anecdotal evidence is generally crap I know, but for what it's worth I can think of multiple voters I personally know for whom the idea of Palin being one septuagenarian heartbeat away from the Oval Office was a major or deciding factor in their voting for Obama.

Yes, Palin energized the conservative base upon her nomination. But does anyone think that the litany of socialism, birtherism, secret Muslim, etc. etc. would've kept the conservative base from getting worked up to defeat Obama? Almost any other conservative McCain chose could've done about the same.

Palin's choice was a gamble to attract PUMA voters and shake up the race by injecting excitement into a campaign that was consistently down in the polls. And after the briefest of media honeymoons and convention bounces it backfired badly soon after Palin started to actually, you know, talk.

[Badger]

Dallasfan and Rochambeau are actually both right.

Other than a brief convention bounce where polls showed him pulling even or very narrowly ahead, McCain was consistently behind in the polls for the entire campaign. Dallas was spot on in describing Palin's pick as a necessary Hail Mary designed to fundamentally shake up the race.

That said, Palin being utterly not ready for prime time clearly blew up in McCain's face and cost him votes, and probably a couple states (though nowhere near enough to change the outcome). Thus Rochambeau is right that someone like Thune would've been a much better choice, albeit in 20/20 hindsight.

[Badger]

This huge emphasis on "executive experience" as the be all and end all for judging a would-be president's resume came about on the 2008 campaign as the GOP tried to have its cake and eat it too; simultaneously defending a woefully unprepared and unqualified candidate like Palin, but still try to hit Obama on the experience issue. It was fun watching campaign hacks sounding as if an assistant manager at Kinko's was superior experience for the Oval Office than being Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair.

[Badger]

The housing market meltdown was staged for years to take place a few weeks before the 2008 presidential election. President Bush had his own bill in 2003 and the democrats fought it til the bill died in the senate. In 2005 McCain had his own bill that was voted against by both sides. The democrats had that up their sleeves for years. Not to mention Chris Dodd was the highest recipient of their loans with Obama coming in at number 2. They could've panicked 10 years earlier too. The collapse was bound to happen due to interest rates being too low and too many ppl being allowed to take out loans who had no intention on paying them back. The policies go back to Jimmy Carter.

So the meltdown was "staged for years" to occur just before the 08 election, presumably to help the Democratic candidate win?? And the Democrats managed to do this in through 2003-05 while the GOP controlled the White House and both houses of Congress?

You've officially jumped the shark with this post. Congratulations!

[Badger]

You're not understanding what I'm saying. It was in their pocket for years and played at their right time. They could've played it before or later. They would look so horrible with Obama's messianic campaign ending in a crucifixion without resurrection that it had to be done. Fannie/Freddie cried for help along with the Layman brothers at just the right time.

Again, how was this "in their pocket for years" when:

a) during the time period you described the GOP had firm majorities in the House and Senate, plus Bush in the White House; and

b) how would the Democrats prepare in 2003-5 for "Obama's messianic campaign" when Obama wasn't even in the Senate for most this period, let alone a presidential candidate.

You really, really need to step back and take a few deep breaths before posting again.

[Badger]

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STRONGLY DISAGREE!!!!!!!!!

Palin helped McCain and without her he would've lost about 54-45 and lost in a couple other conservative states. She helped to get out the GOP base who never liked McCain to begin with.  Bush is the one who cost McCain votes.

I actually agree with Derek. Palin turned out her "mama grizzlies" and actually gave McCain a fighting chance in socially conservative states. If McCain had chosen Ridge, Lieberman, Pawlenty, Romney, it could've been an extremely boring ticket and would've lost even more.

Meh. Does anyone really think Obama wasn't sufficiently demonized by the right--and would have been just as much without Palin--that the base wouldn't have turned out about the same with another generic pro-life conservative on the ticket? The only advantages Palin brought were a temporary burst of enthusiastic volunteers in the week after her selection (who admittedly probably didn't stop showing up even when the wheels fell off her campaign), and switched Alaska's 3 electoral votes from North Dakota-like semi-competative status to safe Republican. The damage she did by alienating moderate Republicans and making swing voters afraid of her being one septegenarian hearbeat away from the Oval Office was far greater.