PA: Quinnipiac University: Toomey (R) Leads Specter by 5%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2010-04-05

Summary: D: 41%, R: 46%, I: 1%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

7. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?



 

                                                               Union

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds

Specter              41%     9%    78%    38%    37%    44%    43%

Toomey               46     81     10     46     54     38     47

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      -      1      1      -

DK/NA                12      8     10     16      7     16     10



                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Specter              46%    64%    54%    35%    32%    38%    30%

Toomey               39     25     36     52     49     48     56

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      1      3      -      2

DK/NA                14     11     10     11     16     13     12



 

TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Arlen Specter the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?



 

                     Apr 8   Mar 2   Dec 18  Oct 1   Jul 22  May 28  May 4

                     2010    2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009

Specter              41      49      44      42      45      46      53

Toomey               46      42      44      43      44      37      33

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       1       1       -       1       2

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       -       1       -       3       1

DK/NA                12       8      11      13      10      14      10





 

8. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?



 

                                                               Union

                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    HsHolds

Sestak               34%     4%    71%    26%    29%    38%    39%

Toomey               42     78      8     42     52     33     40

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      1      1      1      -

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      1      1      2      -

DK/NA                22     15     20     30     17     27     21



                     Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Cntrl

Sestak               37%    58%    36%    35%    20%    34%    21%

Toomey               35     27     37     43     44     43     54

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      3      -      -      1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      2      3      -      2

DK/NA                27     14     26     17     32     22     22



 

TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Joe Sestak the Democrat and Pat Toomey the Republican, for whom would you vote?



 

                     Apr 8   Mar 2   Dec 18  Oct 1   Jul 22  May 28

                     2010    2010    2009    2009    2009    2009

Sestak               34      36      35      35      35      37

Toomey               42      39      40      38      39      35

SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       1       1

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       2       1       1       3

DK/NA                22      24      22      25      23      23

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If I were Toomey I would focus the summer on stealing more votes from Specter in Alleghenny and Northeastern PA, despite being ahead he does poorer there then I would expect.  Then in the last two months or six weeks, just blast away in Philly and the suburbs.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The trendlines are also very good.