My Theory Re: 2012 and 2016 Elections

[OhioDem]

I believe that the 2012 elections and the 2016 will influence each other in a way not anticipated by many.  Mostly the influence will be a Republican one, but some Democrats may have some pieces of the chessboard to play to

2012: An incumbent President Obama and Republican Challengers
2016: Open (presumably on both sides-Biden isn't expected to run (he'll be 74 that year)

Facing a well-financed incumbent in Obama may be more than a lot of Republicans want to do if the polls  for Obama are good going into early next year. If Obama is consistently polling over 52% by April of next year, a lot of Republican front-runners may sit it out and wait until 2016 when they will have an open Dem field or face an aging Biden. In that case I see Sarah Palin and a host of nobodies as a sacrificial lamb running. That helps the Republicans in that Sarah gets flushed permanently out of the pipeline. Then someone like Daniels or a Petraeus who will have been home long enough to build some support domestically could run and win against a crowded field.

So I think it will be Smilin Sarah (she'd jump at the chance for lasting fame and the profits that come from it) and a host of people who may run for recognition and perennials such as Ron Paul.

[OhioDem]

If by 2012 Biden officially rules himself out for 2016, then some Democrats may try to familiarize themselves with the Dem base by traveling around "campaigning" for Obama and generally trying to make nice with various groups in advance of 2016.

They will also lobby Hillary in the hope that they can win over some support from the Secretary of State, and through her, her base.

[ragevein]

Obama is finished.   Russ Feingold will receive the Democrat Nomination in 2012.

[RosettaStoned]

Obama is finished.   Russ Feingold will receive the Democrat Nomination in 2012.

[justW353]

Obama is finished.   Russ Feingold will receive the Democrat Nomination in 2012.

And Macaca man will win...You are such a sock it's ridiculous.

[California8429]

Obama is finished.   Russ Feingold will receive the Democrat Nomination in 2012.

And Macaca man will win...You are such a sock it's ridiculous.

and he's barely made any posts

[RosettaStoned]

Obama is finished.   Russ Feingold will receive the Democrat Nomination in 2012.

And Macaca man will win...You are such a sock it's ridiculous.

Whose sock is he?

[Хahar 🤔]

Obama is finished.   Russ Feingold will receive the Democrat Nomination in 2012.

And Macaca man will win...You are such a sock it's ridiculous.

Sock?

lol

[justW353]

Obama is finished.   Russ Feingold will receive the Democrat Nomination in 2012.

And Macaca man will win...You are such a sock it's ridiculous.

Sock?

lol

I don't know who's, but come on.

Someone obviously created another account and is trolling here.

[Bull Moose Base]

I believe that the 2012 elections and the 2016 will influence each other in a way not anticipated by many.  Mostly the influence will be a Republican one, but some Democrats may have some pieces of the chessboard to play to

2012: An incumbent President Obama and Republican Challengers
2016: Open (presumably on both sides-Biden isn't expected to run (he'll be 74 that year)

Facing a well-financed incumbent in Obama may be more than a lot of Republicans want to do if the polls  for Obama are good going into early next year. If Obama is consistently polling over 52% by April of next year, a lot of Republican front-runners may sit it out and wait until 2016 when they will have an open Dem field or face an aging Biden. In that case I see Sarah Palin and a host of nobodies as a sacrificial lamb running. That helps the Republicans in that Sarah gets flushed permanently out of the pipeline. Then someone like Daniels or a Petraeus who will have been home long enough to build some support domestically could run and win against a crowded field.

So I think it will be Smilin Sarah (she'd jump at the chance for lasting fame and the profits that come from it) and a host of people who may run for recognition and perennials such as Ron Paul.

The one hiccup is that, if recent precedent holds, most candidates will have announced 10 months from now.  If there are people whose decision is based on how beatable Obama is- I'd put Huckabee in this category; he's been candid about it being a deterrent to a presidential run- they may try to wait as long as possible to make a decision.  Maybe we'll see unusually late announcements.  McCain didn't formally announce until April of 2007 but he'd already formed a committee several months earlier and was clearly a candidate.  I assume it'll become more difficult to attract donations, the later it is into season that you look like you may not even run.

On 2016, Biden will be 73 on Election Day, 74 a few weeks after.  Hillary would be 69.  At the limit but I can see one or both running in a primary.  The Republican Party has nominated plenty of candidates in that range lately: 69 year old Reagan in '80, 73 year old Dole in '96, 72 year old McCain in '08.  But for the Democrats, John Kerry at age 60 was the oldest non-incumbent nominee since 1876.  My bet is that with Obama himself first elected to the senate 4 years before becoming president, if he's considered a success by the party come the 2016 primaries, some primary candidates could be people first elected senator or governor in 2012.  As well as the other names floating around now like Schweitzer, Cuomo, Klobuchar, Gillibrand.

As for the GOP in 2016, I think people are underestimating the chance the Republican nominee in 2016 is the same as in 2012.  The chance of it depends on the outcome of the 2012 race.  If Obama's approval is a point or two north of 50%, it's probably too big a GOP loss for the Republican nominee to get nominated again.  But if Obama's approval is between 48-50% and he ekes out a win with under 300 electoral votes, the 2012 Republican nominee may not be out of the running for the next cycle.

[Хahar 🤔]

Obama is finished.   Russ Feingold will receive the Democrat Nomination in 2012.

And Macaca man will win...You are such a sock it's ridiculous.

Sock?

lol

I don't know who's, but come on.

Someone obviously created another account and is trolling here.

lol no

[The Age Wave]

Yeah they are both obv. socks.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hack does not equal sock.

[Derek]

I'm liking the new electoral map. Don't be surprised to see Hillary run in 2012 as the democratic nominee and as a new democrat different from the unpopular obama.  It's a trick the dems are playing I just know it.

[OhioDem]

Another deluded nostalgic for Hillary. Sometimes, I think that Hillary is too way smarter than many of her supporters.

• First of all she knows that no challenger to a sitting President has ever won the nomination, and if she couldn't win in an evenly matched field, she has no chance to win against an incumbent who has all the money and all of the support.  Plus, she was around to see what happened in 1968, 1980, and the heartbreaker in 2000, when the  Democrats were challenged from the left, and the party lost. So have a lot of other Democrats still able to vote in the primary, so no primary challenge.
• Next, it's already too late-she would have to resign and let foreign policy go to hell in order to fundraise. If she really wanted to contend in 2016, let alone 2012, she knows she could have stayed in Congress, and continued to travel around the country speaking to potential voters.  When she took the job as Secretary of State, she knew that the job would mean she would be absent a great deal of time from the States. She would also be out of the loop on domestic policy, and diplomatic/legal considerations would make her unable to fundraise properly
• So Hillary is out, and she's already said she's out permanently.

[/list]

[pragmatic liberal]

As for the GOP in 2016, I think people are underestimating the chance the Republican nominee in 2016 is the same as in 2012.  The chance of it depends on the outcome of the 2012 race.  If Obama's approval is a point or two north of 50%, it's probably too big a GOP loss for the Republican nominee to get nominated again.  But if Obama's approval is between 48-50% and he ekes out a win with under 300 electoral votes, the 2012 Republican nominee may not be out of the running for the next cycle.

I actually think it's the opposite. If Obama's at 48-50%, a lot of Republicans will think it was a winnable race and blame the candidate for not being able to seal the deal.

If, however, Republicans make a respectable showing despite good approvals for Obama, then the 2012 candidate could claim they kept it close in a difficult climate and outperformed the fundamentals.