NV-03/Mason-Dixon: Heck (R) beats Rep. Titus (D) by 5

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Titus loses, she'll get the new seat in 2012. If Heck loses, he'll get the new seat in 2012. Playing around with Dave's Redistricting App has convinced me a 2D/2R delegation after 2012 is basically inevitable.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually it looks like we'll end up with a Reno area district, a north Las Vegas district, south Las Vegas district and everywhere else district. The everywhere else district is safe GOP, the Las Vegas ones are safe Dem. The Reno one is probably safe for Heller, but could flip in a good Dem year or if he retires. It's probably impossible without very tricky gerrymandering to not draw 3 Obama districts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's probably impossible without very tricky gerrymandering to not draw 3 Obama districts.

In 2012, there will only be 1 Obama district, so what is your point?

Kind of jumping a bit ahead aren't you? And I don't see how you could draw less than 2 Obama districts either, unless they'd sliced up Vegas into thin strips running across rural Nevada. Not happening.

If Titus loses, she'll get the new seat in 2012. If Heck loses, he'll get the new seat in 2012. Playing around with Dave's Redistricting App has convinced me a 2D/2R delegation after 2012 is basically inevitable.

Where is that?

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistrictingapp.aspx

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

By Reno area I meant totally dominated by Reno. There would be some rural counties, but all the population would be concentrated in Washoe county and Carson City.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nevada after 2012 will probably look something like this:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

An east-west split across Vegas is far likelier than north-south.  People usually consider the I-15 as the border between the 'east side' and 'west side' of the city.

Which is actually what my map ended up being.

Nevada after 2012 will probably look something like this:

Did you use the new population estimates?

Yes.