NV-03/Mason-Dixon: Heck (R) beats Rep. Titus (D) by 5

[Verily]

Actually it looks like we'll end up with a Reno area district, a north Las Vegas district, south Las Vegas district and everywhere else district. The everywhere else district is safe GOP, the Las Vegas ones are safe Dem. The Reno one is probably safe for Heller, but could flip in a good Dem year or if he retires. It's probably impossible without very tricky gerrymandering to not draw 3 Obama districts.

Not possible. There aren't enough people in the Reno/Carson City area to make a district. There will be three Vegas districts (one including some empty territory) and a Reno-Elko-empty areas district. Two of the Vegas districts will be Democratic, one (really the Henderson district) will be Republican, and the Everywhere-else district will be Republican but not totally unwinnable for the Democrats.

There need to be five districts before the Reno area gets its own district.

[Verily]

It's probably impossible without very tricky gerrymandering to not draw 3 Obama districts.

In 2012, there will only be 1 Obama district, so what is your point?

Kind of jumping a bit ahead aren't you? And I don't see how you could draw less than 2 Obama districts either, unless they'd sliced up Vegas into thin strips running across rural Nevada. Not happening.

Obama will only win 1 district in 2012.

Doubt that, too. There will be two minority-majority districts in Nevada come 2012.