When will the U.S. lose its Christian majority?
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  When will the U.S. lose its Christian majority?
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2010-2050
 
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Author Topic: When will the U.S. lose its Christian majority?  (Read 6318 times)
Bo
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« on: April 14, 2010, 01:48:09 AM »

Option 6
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2010, 01:48:53 AM »

Um, never. The demographics of the country will be getting more and more Christian in the years to come.
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2010, 01:55:39 AM »

Hard to really project out that far, but non-Catholic Christians should become a minority around 2040.

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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2010, 02:03:02 AM »

     Probably never. While the percentage of Christians is declining in the long term, trends change & attitudes change. One of the more annoying assumptions that my fellow atheists sometimes make is that society will naturally follow a constant progression towards atheism, something that I emphatically doubt.

Hard to really project out that far, but non-Catholic Christians should become a minority around 2040.



     I think you mean plurality. They're still ahead of the next biggest group by 33%, so minority is unlikely anytime soon.
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dead0man
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« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2010, 02:05:58 AM »

Certainly not anytime soon.
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« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2010, 02:07:02 AM »

Hard to really project out that far, but non-Catholic Christians should become a minority around 2040.



Uh, Catholics count toward the Christian majority.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2010, 02:07:54 AM »

     Probably never. While the percentage of Christians is declining in the long term, trends change & attitudes change. One of the more annoying assumptions that my fellow atheists sometimes make is that society will naturally follow a constant progression towards atheism, something that I emphatically doubt.

Hard to really project out that far, but non-Catholic Christians should become a minority around 2040.



     I think you mean plurality. They're still ahead of the next biggest group by 33%, so minority is unlikely anytime soon.

No I meant minority, like the Canadian Conservative party is a minority party. Sure, it's also a plurality.
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shua
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« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2010, 05:38:54 PM »
« Edited: April 14, 2010, 05:45:43 PM by shua »

Hard to really project out that far, but non-Catholic Christians should become a minority around 2040.



interesting that the percentage of non-Catholic Christians has stayed mostly steady for nearly 3 decades. also surprising given immigration that the Catholic percentage has lowered a bit.

religious people generally have higher birthrates, so the way we get to a Chrisitan minority would be a) massive immigration of Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, etc. and/or b) a dramatic decrease in religiousity in future generations. 
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« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2010, 06:40:43 PM »

I think the amount of non-religious will continue to rise for at least the next 30 years. 
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« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2010, 12:28:48 AM »

I think the amount of non-religious will continue to rise for at least the next 30 years. 



At this rate in 30 years "None" still won't be above 20% even.
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phk
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« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2010, 12:48:28 AM »

Not anytime soon.

Religious people, tend to have higher fertility rates and thus while there might be some secular kids, the majority will stay religious.
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2010, 08:50:05 PM »

Not anytime soon.

Religious people, tend to have higher fertility rates and thus while there might be some secular kids, the majority will stay religious.

True, and regardless of what the young folks here think many so called "atheist" teens will turn back to their religious roots once they start having children of their own, it's pretty much a given.
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Frodo
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2010, 09:00:06 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2010, 09:01:54 PM by Frodo »

Not until the end of the century, if then.

Not anytime soon.

Religious people, tend to have higher fertility rates and thus while there might be some secular kids, the majority will stay religious.

True, and regardless of what the young folks here think many so called "atheist" teens will turn back to their religious roots once they start having children of their own, it's pretty much a given.

Even if the 'godlessness' of my generation is overplayed, each succeeding generation generally turn out less religious than their predecessors, however.  I see no reason to think why mine will somehow buck this trend.  
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StatesRights
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« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2010, 09:04:13 PM »

Not until the end of the century, if then.

Not anytime soon.

Religious people, tend to have higher fertility rates and thus while there might be some secular kids, the majority will stay religious.

True, and regardless of what the young folks here think many so called "atheist" teens will turn back to their religious roots once they start having children of their own, it's pretty much a given.

Even if the 'godlessness' of my generation is overplayed, each succeeding generation generally turn out less religious than their predecessors, however.  I see no reason to think why mine will somehow buck this trend.  

Proof? I doubt religious identity would have even broken 70% even two hundred years ago.
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« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2010, 09:10:45 PM »

Not until the end of the century, if then.

Not anytime soon.

Religious people, tend to have higher fertility rates and thus while there might be some secular kids, the majority will stay religious.

True, and regardless of what the young folks here think many so called "atheist" teens will turn back to their religious roots once they start having children of their own, it's pretty much a given.

Even if the 'godlessness' of my generation is overplayed, each succeeding generation generally turn out less religious than their predecessors, however.  I see no reason to think why mine will somehow buck this trend.  

Proof? I doubt religious identity would have even broken 70% even two hundred years ago.

Here it is.
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« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2010, 09:13:11 PM »
« Edited: April 18, 2010, 09:15:39 PM by SE Legislator PiT »

Not until the end of the century, if then.

Not anytime soon.

Religious people, tend to have higher fertility rates and thus while there might be some secular kids, the majority will stay religious.

True, and regardless of what the young folks here think many so called "atheist" teens will turn back to their religious roots once they start having children of their own, it's pretty much a given.

Even if the 'godlessness' of my generation is overplayed, each succeeding generation generally turn out less religious than their predecessors, however.  I see no reason to think why mine will somehow buck this trend. 

Proof? I doubt religious identity would have even broken 70% even two hundred years ago.

     So? The deists that probably would have made up the bulk of non-identifiers then were much different than the atheists/agnostics who make up the bulk of non-identifiers today. It's hard to deny that religious authorities in much of the country today are much weaker than they were 200 years ago.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2010, 09:13:47 PM »

Not until the end of the century, if then.

Not anytime soon.

Religious people, tend to have higher fertility rates and thus while there might be some secular kids, the majority will stay religious.

True, and regardless of what the young folks here think many so called "atheist" teens will turn back to their religious roots once they start having children of their own, it's pretty much a given.

Even if the 'godlessness' of my generation is overplayed, each succeeding generation generally turn out less religious than their predecessors, however.  I see no reason to think why mine will somehow buck this trend.  

Proof? I doubt religious identity would have even broken 70% even two hundred years ago.

Here it is.


It's a youth thing I promise. Most young folks, like many here, question their faith once they get out from under their parents wings, then, as they age and have children they usually come home.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2010, 09:15:25 PM »

So? The deists that probably would have made up the bulk of non-identifiers then were much different than the atheists/agnostics who make up the bulk of non-identifiers today. It's hard to deny that religious authorities in most of the country today are much weaker than they were 200 years ago.

Many dislike organized religion, they don't dislike the belief in God or an afterlife.
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« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2010, 09:31:15 PM »

So? The deists that probably would have made up the bulk of non-identifiers then were much different than the atheists/agnostics who make up the bulk of non-identifiers today. It's hard to deny that religious authorities in most of the country today are much weaker than they were 200 years ago.

Many dislike organized religion, they don't dislike the belief in God or an afterlife.

     Not disliking has anything to do with it. Unless you are trying to suggest that bulk of the irreligious today are in fact deists, you aren't really making any sort of point here.
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« Reply #19 on: April 18, 2010, 09:34:21 PM »

So? The deists that probably would have made up the bulk of non-identifiers then were much different than the atheists/agnostics who make up the bulk of non-identifiers today. It's hard to deny that religious authorities in most of the country today are much weaker than they were 200 years ago.

Many dislike organized religion, they don't dislike the belief in God or an afterlife.

     Not disliking has anything to do with it. Unless you are trying to suggest that bulk of the irreligious today are in fact deists, you aren't really making any sort of point here.

Because it's nothing worth worrying about religion will come back, it's in no threat of disappearing.
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« Reply #20 on: April 18, 2010, 09:40:56 PM »

So? The deists that probably would have made up the bulk of non-identifiers then were much different than the atheists/agnostics who make up the bulk of non-identifiers today. It's hard to deny that religious authorities in most of the country today are much weaker than they were 200 years ago.

Many dislike organized religion, they don't dislike the belief in God or an afterlife.

     Not disliking has anything to do with it. Unless you are trying to suggest that bulk of the irreligious today are in fact deists, you aren't really making any sort of point here.

Because it's nothing worth worrying about religion will come back, it's in no threat of disappearing.

     I agree with that, though I suppose the issue is that you are talking about organized religion specifically while I am talking about Christianity specifically. While it happens that there have always been people who reject organized religion, I do not think it would be controversial to suggest that apathy towards or rejection of the Christian God is more socially acceptable now than it ever has been in the past.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #21 on: April 18, 2010, 09:43:29 PM »

     I agree with that, though I suppose the issue is that you are talking about organized religion specifically while I am talking about Christianity specifically. While it happens that there have always been people who reject organized religion, I do not think it would be controversial to suggest that apathy towards or rejection of the Christian God is more socially acceptable now than it ever has been in the past.

That doesn't suggest permanence. Religion might surge back in the next twenty years, it's happened plenty of other times in history.
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« Reply #22 on: April 18, 2010, 09:52:47 PM »

     I agree with that, though I suppose the issue is that you are talking about organized religion specifically while I am talking about Christianity specifically. While it happens that there have always been people who reject organized religion, I do not think it would be controversial to suggest that apathy towards or rejection of the Christian God is more socially acceptable now than it ever has been in the past.

That doesn't suggest permanence. Religion might surge back in the next twenty years, it's happened plenty of other times in history.

     History is cyclical; as such, I agree that religion will experience a resurgence. I was rather taking issue with the notion that the irreligious now will become religious later on. Perhaps some of them will, but I expect it would be part of a greater society-wide trend towards religion rather than any sort of independent movement.
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justW353
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« Reply #23 on: April 18, 2010, 10:03:47 PM »

In a word, never.
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« Reply #24 on: April 19, 2010, 12:25:51 AM »

The graph in Frodo's link certainly doesn't support StatesRights' point:



Regardless, 74% is still an overwhelming majority. The answer to the question is not in the lifetime of anyone on the forum.
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