When will the U.S. lose its Christian majority?

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Probably never. While the percentage of Christians is declining in the long term, trends change & attitudes change. One of the more annoying assumptions that my fellow atheists sometimes make is that society will naturally follow a constant progression towards atheism, something that I emphatically doubt.

Hard to really project out that far, but non-Catholic Christians should become a minority around 2040.

     I think you mean plurality. They're still ahead of the next biggest group by 33%, so minority is unlikely anytime soon.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Not until the end of the century, if then.

Not anytime soon.

Religious people, tend to have higher fertility rates and thus while there might be some secular kids, the majority will stay religious.

True, and regardless of what the young folks here think many so called "atheist" teens will turn back to their religious roots once they start having children of their own, it's pretty much a given.

Even if the 'godlessness' of my generation is overplayed, each succeeding generation generally turn out less religious than their predecessors, however.  I see no reason to think why mine will somehow buck this trend. 

Proof? I doubt religious identity would have even broken 70% even two hundred years ago.

     So? The deists that probably would have made up the bulk of non-identifiers then were much different than the atheists/agnostics who make up the bulk of non-identifiers today. It's hard to deny that religious authorities in much of the country today are much weaker than they were 200 years ago.

[Associate Justice PiT]

So? The deists that probably would have made up the bulk of non-identifiers then were much different than the atheists/agnostics who make up the bulk of non-identifiers today. It's hard to deny that religious authorities in most of the country today are much weaker than they were 200 years ago.

Many dislike organized religion, they don't dislike the belief in God or an afterlife.

     Not disliking has anything to do with it. Unless you are trying to suggest that bulk of the irreligious today are in fact deists, you aren't really making any sort of point here.

[Associate Justice PiT]

So? The deists that probably would have made up the bulk of non-identifiers then were much different than the atheists/agnostics who make up the bulk of non-identifiers today. It's hard to deny that religious authorities in most of the country today are much weaker than they were 200 years ago.

Many dislike organized religion, they don't dislike the belief in God or an afterlife.

     Not disliking has anything to do with it. Unless you are trying to suggest that bulk of the irreligious today are in fact deists, you aren't really making any sort of point here.

Because it's nothing worth worrying about religion will come back, it's in no threat of disappearing.

     I agree with that, though I suppose the issue is that you are talking about organized religion specifically while I am talking about Christianity specifically. While it happens that there have always been people who reject organized religion, I do not think it would be controversial to suggest that apathy towards or rejection of the Christian God is more socially acceptable now than it ever has been in the past.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I agree with that, though I suppose the issue is that you are talking about organized religion specifically while I am talking about Christianity specifically. While it happens that there have always been people who reject organized religion, I do not think it would be controversial to suggest that apathy towards or rejection of the Christian God is more socially acceptable now than it ever has been in the past.

That doesn't suggest permanence. Religion might surge back in the next twenty years, it's happened plenty of other times in history.

     History is cyclical; as such, I agree that religion will experience a resurgence. I was rather taking issue with the notion that the irreligious now will become religious later on. Perhaps some of them will, but I expect it would be part of a greater society-wide trend towards religion rather than any sort of independent movement.