Vepres' FINAL House Prediction Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

GOP are most likely NOT taking the House with that setup. And PA-12 as Tilt Republican is rather amusing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

GOP are most likely NOT taking the House with that setup. And PA-12 as Tilt Republican is rather amusing.

It's not like it voted for McCain and demographically is Republican or anything

Yes, it voted for McCain, the only Republican presidential candidate it has voted for since 1972, and one of the few Republicans it has voted for at all for that time. Even Santorum's weak opponent in 2000 probably won it.

Demographically it is not Republican, quite far from it actually.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

GOP are most likely NOT taking the House with that setup. And PA-12 as Tilt Republican is rather amusing.

It's not like it voted for McCain and demographically is Republican or anything

Yes, it voted for McCain, the only Republican presidential candidate it has voted for since 1972, and one of the few Republicans it has voted for at all for that time. Even Santorum's weak opponent in 2000 probably won it.

Demographically it is not Republican, quite far from it actually.

Its been shifting Republican so, 10 yrs ago, that seems rather obvious. It was more Dem then the state at-large, now it is more Republican then the State at-large.

Not really. No one disputes Hillary would've won the seat. So the 2008 results clearly reflect only Obama, not the polls.

What makes it so idiotic to calling it "Tilt Republican" is that completely ignores the polls.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That must be how Ron Paul won the GOP nomination then.

The only ridiculous thing is the whole "Tilt Republican" bit. I wouldn't have thrown a fit if it had simply been "Pure Toss Up" though I would put it at "Tilt Democratic"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Boy I feel vindicated now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

PA-07 as Tossup/Tilt GOP???  NOPE!  I'd have it Tilt/Lean Dem if anything.

I actually somewhat agree with Vepres' rating of that race.  If Sestak hadnt stupidly run for Senate and ran for reelection, it would have been Likely D or maybe not even on any lists. 

Stupidly? His chances aren't any worse than 50/50. I could sort of see that argument back when Specter seemed likely to win the primary, but since Sestak trounced him relatively easily, it doesn't hold much now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There is no way DE-AL is only "Tilt Democratic" when the Republican candidate is just as crazy as O'Donnell and Carney leads him by comparable numbers to Coons' lead while he trails in his own internal.