The shy Tory factor?

[redcommander]

The 1992 campaign turned out to be more in the Tories favor than expected when people thought the country was heading for a hung parliament or narrow Labour majority. Is there any chance this time around that a similar situation may occur, or has the Shy Tory factor been disproved?

[You kip if you want to...]

The pollsters have made many provisions over the years so they don't mess it up again like in 1992, so probably not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The pollsters have made many provisions over the years so they don't mess it up again like in 1992, so probably not.

The pollsters made some provisions after 1974 to make sure that they didn't mess up again...

[Meeker]

That version of the short Tory factor has been disproven, but it's still true that Tory candidates are on average 10 cm shorter than the average Labour or LibDem candidate.

[Hash]

It's the shy Tory factor. Please learn the basic terms you refer to, unless you're making even more of a pathetic fool out of yourself.

[Verily]

"Shy Tories" only exist when the Tories are unpopular. So, no.

[The Mikado]

There should be a short Tory factor, though.  The name is so charming!

[useful idiot]

It's the shy Tory factor. Please learn the basic terms you refer to, unless you're making even more of a pathetic fool out of yourself.

[redcommander]

Sorry there it's edited. You don't have to turn to name calling.

[DL]

I think there may be more of a "shy Labour" factor this time. I think that polls often underestimate support for governing parties that have been in power for a long time, are unpopular and whose leader and campaign have become objects of ridicule. People get embarrassed to say they will vote for them - but in the privacy of the ballot booth - they do.

[Hash]

I think there may be more of a "shy Labour" factor this time. I think that polls often underestimate support for governing parties that have been in power for a long time, are unpopular and whose leader and campaign have become objects of ridicule. People get embarrassed to say they will vote for them - but in the privacy of the ballot booth - they do.

There was in fact an overestimate of Labour in 2005, IIRC.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think there may be more of a "shy Labour" factor this time. I think that polls often underestimate support for governing parties that have been in power for a long time, are unpopular and whose leader and campaign have become objects of ridicule. People get embarrassed to say they will vote for them - but in the privacy of the ballot booth - they do.

There was in fact an overestimate of Labour in 2005, IIRC.

Yeah, by 2 or 3% depending on the pollster.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think there may be more of a "shy Labour" factor this time. I think that polls often underestimate support for governing parties that have been in power for a long time, are unpopular and whose leader and campaign have become objects of ridicule. People get embarrassed to say they will vote for them - but in the privacy of the ballot booth - they do.

There was in fact an overestimate of Labour in 2005, IIRC.

Yes; small but fairly constant. The last time Labour was consistently underestimated was in the last few weeks of the 1983 campaign. Read into that whatever thou will; multiple interpretations exist, I think.