Seats the BNP is most likely to pick up?(UK)

[minionofmidas]

I see little chance of a bunch of neo-fascists picking up the seat of the great Winston Churchill in Epping Forest.

It would be a return to past form.

[minionofmidas]

BNP Battleground 2010
1) Burnley 14.10%
2) Dewsbury 14.67%
3) Pendle 15.44%
4) Ochil and South Perthshire 15.68%
5) Dudley North 15.82%

Barking is ranked as number 10 on a 16.67% swing

Highly misleading because the territory in B&Dag Boro where they tend to do best in in council elections (and there's reason to assume they'll do well there now, too) is the very area transferred from Dagenham constituency to Barking constituency this year...

Oh, and because Ochil is only on there because it was the seat won with the lowest percentage of any in the UK (a Labour-SNP-Con threeway with a semirespectable LD presence too).

[minionofmidas]

And Burnley is only on there because it had a strong independent in 2005 who dampened the major party votes.

Nyes. Burnley is only on top of the list on account of that, but it is a strong BNP constituency... and they'd've probably been stronger if it wasn't for Burnley First.

Party    Candidate    Votes    %    ±%
   Labour    Kitty Ussher    14,999    38.5    -10.8
   Liberal Democrat    Gordon Birtwistle    9,221    23.7    +7.5
   Burnley First Independent    Harry Brooks    5,786    14.8    N/A
   Conservative    Yousuf Miah    4,206    10.8    -10.1
   BNP    Len Starr    4,003    10.3    -1.0