PA-12 Special Election/PPP: Democrats risk losing seat to the Republicans
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 01:49:16 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2010 Elections
  2010 House Election Polls
  PA-12 Special Election/PPP: Democrats risk losing seat to the Republicans
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: PA-12 Special Election/PPP: Democrats risk losing seat to the Republicans  (Read 4296 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 21, 2010, 12:33:30 AM »

Tim Burns (R): 44%
Mark Critz (D): 41%

PPP surveyed 1,197 likely voters in PA-12 on April 17th and 18th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_420.pdf
Logged
The Age Wave
silent_spade07
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 944
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2010, 04:16:05 PM »

Well holy crap.
Logged
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,861
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2010, 07:52:47 PM »

Not a good time to be a democrat in an appalachian coal district.
Logged
CultureKing
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,249
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2010, 09:24:22 PM »

Isn't this a swing district?
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2010, 09:30:53 PM »

It's not like this district is going to exist anymore in 2012 anyway...
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,701
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2010, 09:46:30 PM »


Which would fit well with a margin that's basically the margin of error.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 21, 2010, 09:49:37 PM »

There would be a certain level of irony in Ted Kennedy and John Murtha's seats both being won by Republicans after their deaths.
Logged
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,643
Uzbekistan


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2010, 09:56:45 PM »

Recently? Yes. In the past? It was(would be) a very strong Democratic district.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2010, 09:43:31 AM »

Recently? Yes. In the past? It was(would be) a very strong Democratic district.

It has been held by the GOP since 1974, with part of the district (basically Westmoreland County) being Democratic since 1932. 

To put it into perspective, I think my great grandfather voted for the last successful Republican for Congress there, in 1930.  He died in 1939. Smiley
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2010, 04:55:33 PM »

Nothing surprising here. McCain narrowly won the district as SW PA has grown substantially less Democratic in the last 20 years. People have long correctly speculated this word become a competative seat without Murtha.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,405
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2010, 07:24:30 PM »

There would be a certain level of irony in Ted Kennedy and John Murtha's seats both being won by Republicans after their deaths.

I don't see it.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2010, 08:52:44 PM »

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2010, 02:16:18 PM »

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: April 24, 2010, 07:53:02 AM »

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

Murtha wanted a single-payer healthcare system(he co-sponsored legislation) and he voted for Cap and Trade. Burns wants no parts of either of these things. How is that not a major ideological shift?
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2010, 11:54:33 AM »

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

He was basically very pro-union, anti-free trade.  Economically, I'd say liberal.
Logged
TeePee4Prez
Flyers2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: April 26, 2010, 05:48:23 PM »

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

He was basically very pro-union, anti-free trade.  Economically, I'd say liberal.

BUT you and I both know why McCain won there.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2010, 09:12:31 AM »

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

He was basically very pro-union, anti-free trade.  Economically, I'd say liberal.

BUT you and I both know why McCain won there.

BUT, traditionally, to win there, you had to be very pro-union, and very anti free trade.  That has changed.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2010, 08:52:48 AM »

Susquehanna has Critz up, by eight, I think.
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2010, 08:54:25 AM »

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,892
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2010, 10:25:17 AM »

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Susquehanna doesn't exactly have a good record. 
Logged
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2010, 04:30:54 PM »

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Neither poll has either candidate above 50% - which is what really matters.

I wouldn't doubt if the Democratic primary helps drive turnout for Critz.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2010, 08:22:45 PM »

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Neither poll has either candidate above 50% - which is what really matters.

I wouldn't doubt if the Democratic primary helps drive turnout for Critz.

Yeah, and let's not forget they have a contested gubernatorial primary as well as the Sestak/Specter showdown.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 13, 2010, 08:44:57 PM »

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

PPP is hardly a Dem pollster.  If anything, there polling has erred in favor of the GOP. 
Logged
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,123
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2010, 08:59:45 PM »

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

PPP is hardly a Dem pollster.  If anything, there polling has erred in favor of the GOP. 

Yea the irony is weak but its still irony, and I am a sucker for it. Tongue

Anyway, they have also erred period. Hoffman +15 ring a bell? Yet they got Brown right. We will have to see what happens.

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Neither poll has either candidate above 50% - which is what really matters.

I wouldn't doubt if the Democratic primary helps drive turnout for Critz.

Yeah, and let's not forget they have a contested gubernatorial primary as well as the Sestak/Specter showdown.

Yes that is true, but whats to say that all the Democrats will vote for Critz, by defination many will not. The question is how many Dems can be stolen.
Logged
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,643
Uzbekistan


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 13, 2010, 10:34:19 PM »

I'm thinking that this will be a Burns victory by 3-4 points. If it wasn't for the Democratic Primary, Critz would get crushed.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 14 queries.