PA-12 Special Election/PPP: Democrats risk losing seat to the Republicans

[Badger]

Nothing surprising here. McCain narrowly won the district as SW PA has grown substantially less Democratic in the last 20 years. People have long correctly speculated this word become a competative seat without Murtha.

[Badger]

Outside of his anti-war stance, Murtha was hardly a Democrat, so it's not like it's any big ideological shift if Burns wins.

I was under the impression he was a typical economically liberal and socially moderate-conservative West PA Dem (other than his opposition to the Iraq War, as you said). I doubt that's the case with Burns.

[Badger]

Dem polls says GOP +3
GOP Poll says Dem +8


This is interesting.

Neither poll has either candidate above 50% - which is what really matters.

I wouldn't doubt if the Democratic primary helps drive turnout for Critz.

Yeah, and let's not forget they have a contested gubernatorial primary as well as the Sestak/Specter showdown.

[Badger]

Mark Halperin and Chuck Todd on Hardball last night were talking as if both sides were expecting a Critz victory. The Republicans are pre-spinning by saying that they didn't settle on an effective message for the campaign. I find this surprising, myself. There must be some good internals because I see no reason to assume Critz is going to win.

Best news I've heard all day.

Particularly as I agree with your last sentence.