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  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Torie)
  Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000
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Author Topic: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000  (Read 39558 times)
Bo
Rochambeau
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« on: April 29, 2010, 06:00:49 pm »
« edited: May 07, 2010, 11:25:19 pm by Time goes by, so slowly »



















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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2010, 06:06:55 pm »

What caused Anderson to move so high in mid-1980?
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2010, 06:12:50 pm »


I'm guessing dissatisfaction with both Carter and Reagan among many voters.
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Franzl
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« Reply #3 on: April 29, 2010, 06:15:55 pm »


I'm guessing dissatisfaction with both Carter and Reagan among many voters.

Brilliant! You should become a political commentator!
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #4 on: April 29, 2010, 07:43:13 pm »

You can find all of the national polls from 2000 over at pollingreport.com, even the ones where Gore was beating McCain in early 2000.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #5 on: April 29, 2010, 08:29:23 pm »

What is up with 1944? I had no idea that Roosevelt was that close to Dewey in the months leading to the election, as most accounts I have read of it say...

*Runs to get FDR biography*

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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #6 on: April 29, 2010, 09:02:43 pm »

What is up with 1944? I had no idea that Roosevelt was that close to Dewey in the months leading to the election, as most accounts I have read of it say...

*Runs to get FDR biography*

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I'd just guess poor sampling or maybe more FDR voters (who were typically poorer) didn't have access to phones.
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Nym90
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« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2010, 10:48:05 pm »

Democrats used to underpoll in the 1930's and 40's because it was very difficult to poll many Democratic voters due to them lacking telephones.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2010, 11:44:01 pm »

I'm surprised LBJ got support in the high 70s in the early summer of 1964. Sure, Goldwater was nuts, but those amrgins are just ridiculous.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: April 30, 2010, 12:23:36 am »

What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992?  I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July. 
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2010, 12:26:39 am »

What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992?  I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July. 

I guess Bush led Clinton due to the GOP Convention bounce.
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memphis
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« Reply #11 on: April 30, 2010, 12:32:22 am »

I'm surprised LBJ got support in the high 70s in the early summer of 1964. Sure, Goldwater was nuts, but those amrgins are just ridiculous.

Residual shock from the Kennedy assassination. Imagine if Bush had been running for re-election in early 2002 (with a good economy as well).
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #12 on: April 30, 2010, 12:34:06 am »

What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992?  I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July. 

I guess Bush led Clinton due to the GOP Convention bounce.

The GOP Convention didnt occur until late August. 
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #13 on: April 30, 2010, 12:56:12 am »


I'm guessing dissatisfaction with both Carter and Reagan among many voters.

What is up with 1944? I had no idea that Roosevelt was that close to Dewey in the months leading to the election

I'd just guess poor sampling or maybe more FDR voters (who were typically poorer) didn't have access to phones.

What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992?  I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July.  

I guess Bush led Clinton due to the GOP Convention bounce.

Thanks for posting this information and all, but it's best if you let the grown-ups talk now.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2010, 12:45:05 pm »

That is what I suspected; but the 1940 results aren't far off from the total.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #15 on: April 30, 2010, 05:25:41 pm »

I'm surprised Ike and Stevenson were so close near the 1952 election. Was it just a bad sample, or did Ike really overperform (and why)?
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2010, 01:07:04 am »

It's worth noting that the media was in the tank for Stevenson.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2010, 01:09:20 am »

It's worth noting that the media was in the tank for Stevenson.

Why, though? Ike was a war hero.
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Tuck!
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« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2010, 06:07:26 pm »

1996 shows a final poll of 55 for Clinton. Then at the top it says the final is 52. Which one is correct?
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2010, 06:15:04 pm »

1996 shows a final poll of 55 for Clinton. Then at the top it says the final is 52. Which one is correct?

If you look carefully, the 1996 polls only extend to August (on the chart). I think Gallup's November poll showed 52% for Clinton, while their August poll showed 55% for Clinton.
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Tuck!
tuckerbanks
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2010, 06:16:38 pm »

Clinton has said that he got lazy and apathetic towards the end of the 1996 campaign trail. I wonder why that didn't reflect in the poll.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2010, 06:26:19 pm »

Clinton has said that he got lazy and apathetic towards the end of the 1996 campaign trail. I wonder why that didn't reflect in the poll.

Because not everything Clinton (or any politician) says is accurate.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2010, 11:23:02 pm »
« Edited: May 07, 2010, 11:26:07 pm by Time goes by, so slowly »

I added in these two charts:


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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #23 on: May 18, 2010, 05:44:48 pm »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx

Does anyone know how to put charts from this link directly onto here? Those charts are pretty much the same (except for 2004), but they look neater.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #24 on: June 19, 2010, 05:30:14 am »

Why in the 1992 election, Perot is included in the polls until mid-june, then disappears and reappears in the beginning of September ? What happened at these times ?
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