Ok gloom and doomers, when will the SHTF?

[rob in cal]

After the initial shock of the fall of 2008, the economic gloom and doomers have been going all out with predictions of Gold at 5,000 dollars an ounce, food riots, hyper inflation, civil war, mass unemployment as bad or as worse as in the 1930's.  Its now May of 2010, and I'm wondering when we are going to see some more evidence of this happening. I'm certainly not arguing that the economy if recovering very much, and we clearly have very troubling unemployment and federal debt issues, but in terms of full bore, Argentina or Weimar Republic style economic turmoil, I'm just not seeing it happening.

[fezzyfestoon]

what

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

what

Go read some posts from SamSpade or Mint.

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

what

Go read some posts from SamSpade or Mint.

lol can you bring some of them up because me being his room mate I would love to seem them. I remember how he used to talk about hyperinflation and the collapse of the dollar all the time. He never gave me a good date, or anything and thus I am guessing he just lives by the law of anthropy.I remember he told me that economy should collapse sometime next year,or late summer and I intend on holding him to his word.

[J. J.]

After the initial shock of the fall of 2008, the economic gloom and doomers have been going all out with predictions of Gold at 5,000 dollars an ounce, food riots, hyper inflation, civil war, mass unemployment as bad or as worse as in the 1930's.  Its now May of 2010, and I'm wondering when we are going to see some more evidence of this happening. I'm certainly not arguing that the economy if recovering very much, and we clearly have very troubling unemployment and federal debt issues, but in terms of full bore, Argentina or Weimar Republic style economic turmoil, I'm just not seeing it happening.

My sole doom was taking $200.00 out of the bank in case the system collapsed for a few day.

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

The problem with doom sayers is that they don't potentially entertain alternative outcomes. For example I have at least 5 opinions/predictions of what could potentially happen over the next few years, and they are all based off of conditional statements. For example it is possible that another recession may occur if the unemployment rate increases, but a recession is far different from a financial crisis. This is a good example of a conditional statement because i am basing my claim off of the unemployment variable. After this I would than have to provide a model to show the percentage, or probability of such an event occurring. Thus allowing me to hypothetically formulate my answer as follows: "my research indicates that a double dip recession has a 30% chance, a budget crisis 10% chance, and a full blown recovery at 40%, ect". This answer is not only balanced but it shows that i have an open mind that is willing to entertain any/all potential scenarios.

In the end doomsayers are narrow minded and could never honestly entertain other possibilities. Perhaps we would all like to be one armed economists too,but are judgment is more sound compared to any doomsayer. Thus the wise economist should understand that the most important answer is the one that has some potential ability to be false.

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.
Bertrand Russell

[Sbane]

I never believed the really depressing theories thrown out there, but it is still possible for the economy to go into a downturn. I think we may get at least a couple more quarters of growth, as we rebound from the recession, but it may not be sustainable if unemployment doesn't fall appreciably. In addition there are a lot of risks out there in the world like Greece and most of southern Europe, China overheating, defaults of commercial real estate etc. Any of these events could trigger the next downturn.

[Derek]

That's almost as hard as predicting the lottery.

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

I never believed the really depressing theories thrown out there, but it is still possible for the economy to go into a downturn. I think we may get at least a couple more quarters of growth, as we rebound from the recession, but it may not be sustainable if unemployment doesn't fall appreciably. In addition there are a lot of risks out there in the world like Greece and most of southern Europe, China overheating, defaults of commercial real estate etc. Any of these events could trigger the next downturn.

There is always something going on in the world that could destroy the economy even when things are good, and anyone with a deep sense of economic history would probably wonder how the whole crazy fabric still manages to hang together.

[Derek]

I never believed the really depressing theories thrown out there, but it is still possible for the economy to go into a downturn. I think we may get at least a couple more quarters of growth, as we rebound from the recession, but it may not be sustainable if unemployment doesn't fall appreciably. In addition there are a lot of risks out there in the world like Greece and most of southern Europe, China overheating, defaults of commercial real estate etc. Any of these events could trigger the next downturn.

There is always something going on in the world that could destroy the economy even when things are good, and anyone with a deep sense of economic history would probably wonder how the whole crazy fabric still manages to hang together.

That's true but the economy is a simple product of human nature. It's the exchange of currency for goods and the exchange of work for currency. The economy in general isn't going anywhere.

[dead0man]

Pessimists prefer vagueness over specifics.

[CARLHAYDEN]

rob,

I seem to have missed those "predictions of Gold at 5,000 dollars an ounce, food riots, hyper inflation, civil war, mass unemployment as bad or as worse as in the 1930's."

Could you please cite your sources?


 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

rob,

I seem to have missed those "predictions of Gold at 5,000 dollars an ounce, food riots, hyper inflation, civil war, mass unemployment as bad or as worse as in the 1930's."

Could you please cite your sources?

Like I said, just read SamSpade or Mint's posts.

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

rob,

I seem to have missed those "predictions of Gold at 5,000 dollars an ounce, food riots, hyper inflation, civil war, mass unemployment as bad or as worse as in the 1930's."

Could you please cite your sources?

Like I said, just read SamSpade or Mint's posts.

lol could you link me some of those posts?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I might search later, can't really at work here.

[Tuck!]

This doesn't suffice to explain Greece, though.

[Tuck!]

Michael Pento had an interesting analysis that I read. A lot of it did make sense, surprisingly. I'm not saying that a catastrophe is coming but I honestly wouldn't let my guard down right now because the economy is fragile.

[Beet]

TSMBHTFRN.

[Bo]

How should I know? I'm not the Messiah.